Week 10 started Thursday night in New Jersey and runs through Monday night in Baltimore, with a Sunday-morning game in Munich first. Thirteen games are left, four teams are on bye, and the one quarterback question that mattered most got its answer on Friday afternoon. Every price below is Kalshi at about 7 PM ET Friday, Nov. 13. Every line is the median of nine books from the same run. Every model number is the one printed on that game's page.
Thursday night: Commanders 24, Giants 21
Washington won at New York on Stefon Diggs's 32-yard touchdown with 57 seconds left, after Jayden Daniels threw two fourth-quarter interceptions. Our stored probability had New York at 55.28%, so the model call was a miss, and no position on our board rode on the game. Full recap: Commanders at Giants.
How to read this page
A Kalshi price is the market's probability: 59¢ means a 59% chance. Three other words do work here.
- Our line is the model's margin for the game, printed beside the nine-book line. The gap between them is a lean: our read against the market's, in points. It is not a position.
- A position needs more than a disagreement. It needs the Kalshi price to sit away from the books' own consensus by more than the book's spread, after the fee.
- QB-adjusted means a starter is confirmed but isn't the quarterback the team's power rating was built on. One line, and our lean is capped at Watch however big it is. An Oracle Fork, two lines for an unresolved starter, would sit here too; there is none this week.
The Week 10 board
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Kalshi (Fri 7 PM) | Nine-book line | Our line | QB status on our board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9:30 AM | Patriots at Lions | Lions 58¢ | DET −2.5 | NE by 0.6 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Bills at Jets | Bills 80¢ | BUF −7.5 | BUF by 5.0 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Panthers at Saints | Saints 56¢ | NO −2.5 | NO by 2.1 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Texans at Browns | Texans 68¢ | HOU −4.5 | HOU by 0.7 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Jaguars at Titans | Jaguars 84¢ | JAX −10.5 | JAX by 7.3 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Chiefs at Falcons | Chiefs 63¢ | KC −3 | ATL by 0.1 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Dolphins at Colts | Colts 67¢ | IND −4 | IND by 8.7 | QB-adjusted: Kyle McCord for Malik Willis |
| Sun 1 PM | Vikings at Packers | Packers 59¢ | GB −3 | GB by 6.3 | QB-adjusted: Kirk Cousins for Kyler Murray |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Rams at Cardinals | Rams 81¢ | LAR −9.5 | LAR by 10.2 | QB-adjusted: Carson Beck for Jacoby Brissett |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Seahawks at Raiders | Seahawks 73¢ | SEA −6.5 | SEA by 5.3 | QB-adjusted: Drew Lock for Sam Darnold · Fernando Mendoza for Kirk Cousins |
| Sun 4:25 PM | 49ers at Cowboys | 49ers 66¢ | SF −4 | SF by 1.2 | Set |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Steelers at Bengals | Bengals 63¢ | CIN −3.5 | CIN by 3.9 | Set |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Chargers at Ravens | Ravens 67¢ | BAL −4.5 | BAL by 6.8 | QB-adjusted: Jacoby Brissett for Lamar Jackson |
Kalshi prices are mid-prices, rounded, with the favorite's price shown. Lines are the median of nine books. The Bears, Buccaneers, Eagles and Broncos are on bye. Every spread ladder is on the Week 10 schedule.
The headline game: Kirk Cousins at Lambeau
Minnesota traded for Cousins on Tuesday and named him the starter on Friday afternoon, with Kyler Murray out with a hamstring strain. Until then our page carried an Oracle Fork with Carson Wentz as the second branch. It is one line now, labeled QB-adjusted because Minnesota's power rating was built on Murray. Cousins is treated as a starter for a starter, so the line carries no flat quarterback term.
Our line: Packers by 6.3. The nine-book line: Green Bay by 3. Kalshi: Packers 59¢. That's a 3.3-point lean toward Green Bay, and on a QB-adjusted game it stays at Watch: no position publishes off this game line. For the trade itself and what it did to Minnesota's season prices, read the Cousins trade breakdown. Live board: Vikings at Packers.
The other QB-adjusted games
- Dolphins at Colts. Kyle McCord starts for Miami in place of Malik Willis. Our line: Colts by 8.7, against Indianapolis by 4. That 4.7-point lean is the widest on the slate, and it's capped at Watch for the same reason as Cousins's. Game page.
- Chargers at Ravens, Monday night. Jacoby Brissett starts for Baltimore in place of Lamar Jackson. Our line: Ravens by 6.8, against Baltimore by 4.5. Justin Herbert is not on the Chargers' injury report. Game page.
- Rams at Cardinals. Carson Beck starts for Arizona. Our line: Rams by 10.2, within a point of the market's 9.5. Game page.
- Seahawks at Raiders. Both rooms are adjusted: Drew Lock for Seattle and Fernando Mendoza for Las Vegas. Our line: Seahawks by 5.3, against Seattle by 6.5. Game page.
Where our line and the market disagree
These games clear every quarterback check, so their leans are clean reads. Only one reaches MODERATE.
- Texans at Browns. MODERATE. Our line: Texans by 0.7. Market: Houston by 4.5. A 3.8-point lean toward Cleveland, the biggest clean one on the board. Game page.
- Jaguars at Titans. Our line: Jaguars by 7.3. Market: Jacksonville by 10.5. A 3.2-point lean toward Tennessee. Game page.
- Patriots at Lions, in Munich. Our line: Patriots by 0.6. Market: Detroit by 2.5. A 3.1-point lean toward New England, in the 9:30 AM ET game. Jared Goff carries no game status after a limited Wednesday with a chest injury. Game page.
- Chiefs at Falcons. Our line: Falcons by 0.1. Market: Kansas City by 3. A 3.1-point lean toward Atlanta. Patrick Mahomes practiced in full all week. Game page.
- 49ers at Cowboys. Our line: 49ers by 1.2. Market: San Francisco by 4. A 2.8-point lean toward Dallas. Game page.
- Bills at Jets. Our line: Bills by 5.0. Market: Buffalo by 7.5. A 2.5-point lean toward the Jets, the same direction as the position below. Game page.
Two games sit close to the market. Panthers at Saints: our line Saints by 2.1, against New Orleans by 2.5 (game page). Steelers at Bengals, Sunday night: our line Bengals by 3.9, against Cincinnati by 3.5 (game page).
What our screen flags right now
Three positions clear the bar on our edge board:
| Game | Contract | Tier | Fair value | Kalshi (Fri 7 PM) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills at Jets | Jets to win | HIGH | 25.3% | 20.5¢ |
| Panthers at Saints | Saints to win | MODERATE | 58.8% | 55.5¢ |
| Texans at Browns | Game total, 38.5 | MODERATE | — | 55¢ |
Fair value is the books' consensus line run through the market's own win curve, not our model's opinion. A position is that consensus disagreeing with Kalshi's price. Check the price you'd actually pay, with the taker fee, on the fee calculator before any contract, and if you're building a multi-leg ticket, the Combo Edge Builder is free.
The prop board: two Plays, 111 Watch rows
Friday evening's run priced 485 player props for the 13 games left against Kalshi's strikes. Three hundred seventy-two were flagged and don't publish. One hundred eleven are Watch rows: they render on the prop board with their label and are capped at MODERATE. Two are Plays.
Kevin Coleman Jr. under 1.5 receptions, Dolphins at Colts. HIGH. Kalshi prices the over at 57.5¢.
Jaylen Warren under 2.5 receptions, Steelers at Bengals (Sunday night). MODERATE. Kalshi prices the over at 57.5¢.
Our board shows the side, the tier and the price; where a stat's display probability is held while its calibration is reviewed, our number is left blank and the tier is the call. Every strike on every ladder, with the books beside Kalshi, is on the Oracle Ladder.
When this page updates
Inactives post 90 minutes before each kickoff, starting with Munich at 8 AM ET Sunday. Every game page and the predictions board move on their own. Trade responsibly: the market is pricing all of this, and you don't have to agree with it.