You may not realize this, but Spencer Pratt, famous (infamous?) for his role on "The Hills" is — depending on where you get your information — a serious contender to win the race for mayor of Los Angeles.
Here is a huge asterisk — "a serious contender" covers a wide breadth of probabilities. According to the most reliable public poll (from UCLA) — and there aren't that many — Pratt is in second place in a non-partisan primary, where the top two finishers a month from now, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the general election. The leading candidate is incumbent Karen Bass at 25%. Pratt is at 11%. In third is council member Nithya Raman at 9%. You may notice a large part of the pie unaccounted for — it's because 40% of voters are undecided.
Kalshi sees things a little differently, in a $3 million market:
The numbers may not line up perfectly because the UCLA poll is looking at things through a lens of primary preference. The race will likely then reset itself as it's one person vs. another. Kalshi is mushing it all together — the primary will whittle it down to two, and then a winner will come out of it all. What's interesting, though, is that Raman leads Kalshi's odds, but UCLA's poll says she might be eliminated as a result of the "all bunched together" primary.
In a market made just for the first round, Kalshi has Bass and Raman with the likeliest chances to advance (Raman spiked on May 3 but this market is just $38k at the moment — 1% of the general election market:
Here is the twist.
On Tuesday in Indiana, a cadre of Trump-backed candidates prevailed in primary wins over their non-Trump-endorsed counterparts:
We'll never know if they would have won without Trump's endorsement or if they were already ahead, but if you poke around a little more on Kalshi, specifically searching Spencer Pratt's name, you'll find a market for Trump primary endorsements. And there is Spencer Pratt, sitting at 46¢ for "YES."
Pratt's chances of an endorsement are going down, but here's why I'm buying the YES — Trump has (real or not) "endorsement momentum" and Pratt is already polling in second place. Trump endorses him for the primary and it's almost a no-lose gambit for the President:
If Pratt makes it out of the primary, it's because Trump's endorsement helped.
If Pratt doesn't, it's because of dumb liberal LA, good luck with those two losers who made it through.
Pratt has pledged his loyalty to Trump policies and actually positioned himself with a surprisingly compelling and relatable mainstream storyline: he lost his house in the wildfires (along with his hummingbirds, which are the logo on his campaign materials). He has even recently toed the line of campaign decency by putting out a video contrasting his "displaced everyman" status of living in a trailer against the mansions that Bass and Raman live in. He is good on TV thanks to his years in reality.
So why hasn't Trump endorsed him yet? My hunch is he was waiting until after the televised debate, which takes place tonight (this is why you're getting the newsletter now instead of tomorrow morning: tune in at 8 pm ET and maybe catch a Pratt odds bump overnight). He'll give Pratt's debate clips (there will 100% be some clip-worthy moments, good or bad) a few days to go viral, watch his numbers tick up and then ride the wave/move the market with an endorsement.
So that leaves us with a few options… assuming you are enjoying this logic. In order of preference:
1. YES on Pratt to advance out of Round 1 (I think he gets there)
2. YES on an endorsement (not as much fun with the odds but it's a solid gambit at this point)
3. YES on Pratt to win for mayor (but like a $5 longshot with the idea that we will buy low and sell when it hits whatever point we feel good at as he gets some momentum).
I don't know if this qualifies as "fun," but it definitely can be filed under "interesting." Different sets of numbers in markets and polls always set us up to learn something. Spencer Pratt and his hummingbirds are just the latest example.
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Trade responsibly. Prices captured May 7, 2026 — markets move fast and a televised debate tonight may move them faster.