Round of 16 Saturday opens with two ties that don't read alike. Houston has a genuine value read on the underdog, and Philadelphia has the day's biggest expected-goals gap paired with a market that's already priced it correctly — which makes the goals, not the winner, the number worth positioning around. Two games, two different jobs for a Round of 16 card: find the mispriced side in one, find the correct total in the other.
Canada vs. Morocco (1:00 PM ET, NRG Stadium, Houston)
The board is still pricing Canada's home-continent crowd; the model is pricing Morocco's finishing. Morocco reads 49% in the model to Canada's 21%, with the draw at 30% — a knockout-appropriate edge for a side that has been the more clinical of the two in front of goal all tournament, and one that grows to a projected 57% to advance once extra time and penalties are folded in. Expected goals back it up: Morocco 1.52 to Canada's 0.92, a 2.45 total with both-teams-to-score at 49%, and the single most likely scoreline is a tight 1-1 (14.4%) — meaning Morocco is live to close this out in 90 or to grind through extra time and penalties on top of that number. The position: Morocco to win in 90 minutes, with Under 2.5 the secondary lean given how low Canada's attacking ceiling projects against a Morocco backline that has conceded sparingly.
Paraguay vs. France (5:00 PM ET, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia)
This is the widest expected-goals gap of the Round of 16, and the market already has it right — the value is in the total. France project at 2.64 expected goals to Paraguay's 0.52, a 3.16 combined total, with Over 2.5 at 61% and the two likeliest scorelines both multi-goal French wins (0-2 at 14.8%, 0-3 at 13.0%). Paraguay's run to the knockout stage has been earned on structure and moments, not sustained goal-scoring threat, and a front line finishing at France's clip makes multiple goals the more probable path to the result than a single late winner. The position: France to win in 90, paired with the Over as the real secondary lean — this is a game where the correct read isn't the favorite, it's how many.
Both ties move a step closer to the quarterfinals tonight. For the full Round of 16 board — champion odds, all eight live knockout matchups, and where our model and the Kalshi board disagree now that the Round of 32 is complete — see the Round of 16 recap.
Model probabilities from PredictionMarketsPicks' World Cup 2026 simulation, refreshed nightly against live results. Not financial advice — trade responsibly.