There are four likely paths; we're fans of Flau'jae.
It feels like most of these WNBA rookies were just playing in college like a week ago.
Imagine AJ Dybantsa and Cam Boozer wrapping up their NCAA tournament runs, being drafted by a team a week later… and three weeks after that, they're tipping off their NBA careers. We marvel at them being ready for the NBA Summer League. That would feel insane to us — but it's just regular in the women's game.
What's more telling is that being drafted in the first round of the WNBA Draft does not guarantee you anything but a pretty photo shaking Cathy Engelbert's hand at the ceremony. There have been many examples of first-round draft picks being cut in their first or second season in the league. That almost never happens in the NBA. The stakes are high, and the pressure has never been more crushing to those who don't have the ability to grind their way through it.
Most recently, 2025 first-round pick Hailey Van Lith was cut from the Chicago Sky after only one season with the team (she has since landed with the Connecticut Sun). She has legitimate game — she was on the 2024 Olympics 3-on-3 team — and national popularity, and still could not find a permanent role.
Regardless of what the future holds for the 2026 draft picks, I wanted to, on the eve of the new season, focus in on these fresh faces that will populate the league — and, more importantly, their chances to come home with Rookie of the Year honors.
There is a delicate balance of production and popularity that you need in order to win the WNBA Rookie of the Year. That leaves, in my estimation, four rookies with legitimate chances to win it at this time.
The juiciest storyline: Azzi Fudd
Azzi Fudd was the surprise first overall pick for the Dallas Wings, who already had two really good and highly productive guards in Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale.
But Fudd brings a storyline with her, unique because of its long-standing history and publicity: she is the girlfriend of Bueckers, last year's number one pick and reigning Rookie of the Year. They were both teammates at UConn and won a championship together in 2025. The relationship has already sparked conversations about whether or not they should have to answer questions about their relationship and how it plays into them competing together.
Others believe that she was drafted first overall for the publicity and not necessarily because she was the best player in the draft. While that should serve as fuel for Fudd, her role in the offense could make it extremely difficult for her to put up the type of numbers it takes to win Rookie of the Year.
On
A new jewel in the Twin Cities
Former TCU guard Olivia Miles was taken with the second overall pick. The point guard has a perfect role to settle into with the Lynx — part of an ensemble that could provide nostalgia for a fanbase that remembers the dynastic Core Four that brought home four championships to the city in the 2010s.
Miles is currently the market favorite and is trading at 37% on
Her best chance for the award may be through team success, where she'd be considered one of the catalysts for team improvement.
I still can't believe she wasn't the first pick
It feels like at every level, people keep sleeping on how good Lauren Betts is. At 6'7", she has climbed all the way to the top of college basketball dominance, leading her team to the championship with a blowout victory over South Carolina and winning Most Outstanding Player honors.
She was passed over for the first overall pick by the Wings, even though they really needed a dominant big to counterbalance the guard play they had. They seemed to go with the storyline as opposed to what the best balance for the team would be. This could point to a philosophy shift for Dallas, or it could just be a mistake.
Well, one team's mistake is another team's value, and now Washington should have one of the bigger, more physically imposing front lines in all of the WNBA. If Betts can be a walking double-double along with her defensive prowess, it's going to be hard for her to not come home with the hardware.
She's currently trading on
She has "star" written all over her
Flau'jae Johnson may not have gone in the top three or four picks, but if you're talking about dynamic talent, then her name should come up before anyone in the draft.
Johnson has been a high-profile player since joining LSU as a freshman and helping them win the championship. Since then, she's lived in the duality of a high-profile basketball player and a budding music star. In my opinion, LSU held her back as a scorer, but in the WNBA, she should be free to attack the basket regularly and put her dynamic game to its best use for the Seattle Storm.
Johnson is currently trading at 17%.
Johnson was the Storm's most consistent and best player during the preseason. She led the team in scoring during exhibition play, and her energy and defensive prowess is infectious. She opens the season against the team that traded her on draft day, the Golden State Valkyries.
Yes, Awa Fam is going to be an issue when she returns, but their games have an opportunity to complement each other — Fam being more of a post player and Johnson being more of a guard. She can put up the type of stats that will allow her to usurp some of the names that were drafted higher than she was.
Where I'm putting my $20
Johnson is who I'm building a position on early. I can't ignore the ROI, and I think she has a very clear path to the award if she goes out and performs the way I expect her to.
If you want to size it like a real trade and not a flyer, run the numbers through the Kelly Criterion tool — at 17¢ entry, you only need a true probability above 17% to be +EV, and I think Johnson's real number sits closer to 25–30%. Half-Kelly is the sane number when the contract is this long-dated.
Take the 17¢. Worst case you've got the most fun ticket in the room all summer. Best case you've got 5x at the end of the season on the player I think is going to define this rookie class.
— Coach Gene Clemons
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