April 11, 2026 | Read online

__What \(and Who\) We're Buying This Week __

Cirie to win Survivor, Steyer to win CA, and more


Today’s newsletter is all about what The Oracles are buying\. And we are all over the place… in a good way\! Let’s dive in:

California Governor: Tom Steyer to Win

With the Eric Swalwell nosedive Friday night, Tom Steyer surged to the lead of the California governor’s race on the prediction markets\. He’s currently trading “YES” at 52¢on Kalshi and 57¢ on Polymarket\.

It’s kind of unexciting to ride the favorite here, but Steyer has a lot of qualities a lot of Californians \(and probably Americans\) admire, serving as a sort of antithesis \(or even nemesis\) to some of the actions of the Trump administration — he loves the climate, he harps on affordability and housing, he drives a cheapish car, he kind of/sort of has an everyman quality, and he’s not afraid to spend some of his billions on what he believes are good and just causes\.

He was a bit of an invisible man in his 2020 presidential run — although he did finish third in South Carolina before dropping out — but that was six years ago and he’s become more TV and debate savvy\.

The rest of the field is relatively blah — Katie Porter finished third in her Senate bid, behind even Steve Garvey\. Matt Mahan ran essentially unopposed in his last mayoral race but likely runs too close to Steyer in the California primary setup and will lose votes to him\. The Republicans are Trump\-aligned candidates — one will likely get into the top two because of the jungle setup but won’t win a state\-wide race\.

So that all gets us back to Steyer, who still sits at just 52% – meaning you can double your money with the new favorite before the June 2 primary\. A lot can happen between then and now \(which is probably why he hasn’t hit the 70s yet\), but there’s also a very real chance of coalescence and momentum over the next two months\.

Cirie to Win Survivor 50

If you’ve listened to The Antenna — our “show about shows” — you’ll know we’ve been tracking all the annoying spoilers on who is going home \(and who is ruining the fun on the markets\)\. It all changed this week, as the market flipped Wednesday morning \(the day of the show\) from Christian going home to Dee\.


Conversely, Cirie has gained momentum in the market, going from about 5% a month ago to 10% after last week’s “merge” to 20% today\. Polymarket has an odds split of about 75/16 for Aubry and Cirie with a much smaller $1 million market, so if you want to get in on Cirie, Polymarket is likely the way to go\.

Republican Nominee 2028: Rand Paul

Rand Paul is currently at 1¢ on both Kalshi and Polymarket\. And this is a gigantic longshot, but if you look at what people are generally upset with today — the war in Iran, rising costs of everything, taxes, general disillusion with partisan politics — you start to appreciate Paul a little more and see how he has a path to win — or at least can have a rising, attractive stock on the exchanges\.


Paul once sued the IRS\. He wants lower taxes\. He’s more about national defense than aggressive action\. With a lot of conservatives turning on Trump lately, Paul was already there, having criticized our intervention in the middle east in early 2025 \(and obviously many other times throughout his career\)\. He’s also a doctor who has gone on countless humanitarian missions across the globe\.

J\.D\. Vance and Marco Rubio, the two current market leaders, may have too much of a Trump stench on them \(although the NY Times report that Vance strongly opposed the Iran war seems like a seed being planted for a 2028 run\):


Paul had “a moment” recently when he took Markwayne Mullin to task for his comments after Paul was tackled by his neighbor in 2017\. It somehow led to a debate on the legality of dueling\.


…so he appeals to “the base\.” And he appeals to the BASE base, not the Trump base\. The same base that is turning on Trump right now\.

Joe Rogan may eventually find his way to Paul after he declared himself “politically homeless” last week — a couple appearances on the show could get him some momentum on the national stage\.

Paul \(similar to Steyer\) was just another guy when he ran for the nomination in 2016, dropping out after a poor Iowa finish and turning his focus back to his Kentucky Senate campaign\. But with 10 more years of experience behind him and an appeal that can capture the imaginations of the disillusioned Tea Party/MAGA — as well as possibly general election voters who appreciate Paul’s relatively fluid nature and ability to go against his party’s establishment in some areas — buying a bunch of Rand Paul at 1¢ isn’t the worst idea as the party reorganizes itself\.

Where to trade these

The California governor and Republican-nominee contracts both live on Kalshi and Polymarket; the Survivor market sits almost entirely on Polymarket. Check the State Availability Map before funding an account — Kalshi clears in all 50 states, Polymarket is restricted for US residents.