The 2026 Final Four is set for April 4–6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Arizona and Illinois have confirmed spots. Duke vs UConn and Michigan vs Tennessee finish off the Elite Eight field today.
Here's where the lines stand and where the market is wrong.
Championship Futures
| Team | Seed | Championship Odds | Implied Probability |
|------|------|-------------------|---------------------|
| Arizona | #1 West | +170 | 37% |
| Duke | #1 East | +300 | 25% |
| Michigan | #1 Midwest | +300 | 25% |
| Illinois | #3 South | +600 | 14% |
| UConn | #2 East | +1500 | 6% |
| Tennessee | #6 Midwest | +3500 | 3% |
Arizona at +170 means the market is essentially calling this a coin flip between them and the field. That feels about right — but it also means there's no obvious edge on the favorite.
Sportsbook Comparison
| Sportsbook | Arizona | Duke | Michigan | Illinois | UConn | Tennessee |
|------------|---------|------|----------|----------|-------|-----------|
| DraftKings | +170 | +290 | +300 | +600 | +1400 | +3500 |
| FanDuel | +175 | +300 | +310 | +580 | +1500 | +3200 |
| BetMGM | +165 | +300 | +300 | +650 | +1600 | +4000 |
| Caesars | +170 | +280 | +320 | +600 | +1500 | +3500 |
The biggest line discrepancy is on Illinois — BetMGM at +650 vs FanDuel at +580. Meaningful if you're betting the Illini.
Today's Elite Eight
East Regional Final — 5:05 PM ET, CBS
Duke (-5.5, -220) vs UConn
Midwest Regional Final — 7:45 PM ET, TBS
Michigan (-7.5, -320) vs Tennessee
The winner of each game fills the Final Four bracket alongside Arizona and Illinois.
What the Market Is Telling You
Arizona (+170) is the right favorite. They've been dominant all tournament, beat Purdue convincingly in the Elite Eight, and have the defensive infrastructure to win on neutral courts. 37% implied probability feels accurate.
Duke and Michigan (both +300) are priced identically but the situations are different. Duke has survived the harder bracket. Michigan has been the more dominant team, but -7.5 against a Tennessee squad that already upset two higher seeds is a real trap number. If Tennessee wins tonight, Michigan comes off that game with questions.
Illinois (+600) is the value. They haven't been to the Final Four in over 20 years, they're fresh, and they have the perimeter shooting to beat anyone in a single game. At 14% implied probability, that's worth a look if you're shopping longer shots.
Use the Probability Converter to flip these odds into implied probabilities and run them against your own number. If you think Illinois should be at 18%, that's a +600 with positive expected value.
The Prediction Market Angle
Kalshi and Polymarket don't typically list college basketball, but sportsbook championship futures are prediction markets in everything but name. The mechanism is identical — you're buying implied probability at a price set by aggregated market action.
The practical difference: sportsbooks have vig. A four-team futures market where implied probs sum to ~103% means roughly 3% is juice. Keep that in mind when comparing to a prediction market contract that prices at true probability with a tighter spread.
If you're running EV math, plug the DraftKings line and your own probability estimate into the EV Calculator to see if the edge clears the vig threshold.