Fed odds on Oct 10, 2026
What Kalshi, Polymarket and fed funds futures priced for the Oct 27–28, 2026 FOMC decision at the latest capture today. The favorite was a hold at 84.5% on Kalshi, 1.0 points from Polymarket. Live Oct 28 odds →
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket (international) | Fed funds futures (implied) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50bp+ cut | 0.5%±0.0 | 0.2%±0.0 | — |
| 25bp cut | 0.5%±0.0 | 0.5%±0.0 | 0.0%±0.0 |
| Hold | 84.5%+1.0 | 83.5%±0.0 | 82.0%±0.0 |
| 25bp hike | 15.5%±0.0 | 15.5%±0.0 | 18.0%±0.0 |
| 50bp+ hike | 0.5%±0.0 | 0.4%±0.0 | — |
Each venue's close on this UTC day. “—” is no price, never 0% — the futures leg cannot express a 50bp move. Polymarket is the international book. Futures are a derived probability, never a contract price.
What printed that day
No scheduled Fed-moving release on Oct 10, 2026.
Data: Kalshi, Polymarket and fed funds futures, captured every 30 minutes by PredictionMarketsPicks — free with attribution at the CSV. Not a forecast; trade responsibly.