Fed odds on Oct 6, 2026
What Kalshi, Polymarket and fed funds futures priced for the Oct 27–28, 2026 FOMC decision at the close of the day (UTC). The favorite was a hold at 83.5% on Kalshi, 0.0 points from Polymarket. Live Oct 28 odds →
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket (international) | Fed funds futures (implied) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50bp+ cut | 0.5%±0.0 | 0.2%±0.0 | — |
| 25bp cut | 0.5%±0.0 | 0.5%+0.1 | 0.0%±0.0 |
| Hold | 83.5%+4.0 | 83.5%+4.0 | 80.0%+2.0 |
| 25bp hike | 16.5%−4.0 | 15.5%−4.0 | 20.0%−2.0 |
| 50bp+ hike | 0.5%±0.0 | 0.4%±0.0 | — |
Each venue's close on this UTC day. “—” is no price, never 0% — the futures leg cannot express a 50bp move. Polymarket is the international book. Futures are a derived probability, never a contract price.
What printed that day
No scheduled Fed-moving release on Oct 6, 2026.
Data: Kalshi, Polymarket and fed funds futures, captured every 30 minutes by PredictionMarketsPicks — free with attribution at the CSV. Not a forecast; trade responsibly.