Recession Probability Tracker
Live market-implied probability of a US recession — sourced from Kalshi prediction markets, updated every 5 minutes.
KXRECSSNBER-26 last price (5-min refresh)MACRO · ECONOMY
What does the market think about the economy's health?
What is this?
A recession is two consecutive quarters of economic shrinkage. This tracker aggregates prediction market odds from Kalshi and Polymarket for whether a recession will be called in the next 6–12 months.
Think of it as a live economic thermometer. When this number gets above 40%, the collective wisdom of millions of dollars in real bets is saying: something's wrong. Below 20% means markets are optimistic.
Real-World Example
→ The Signal
Recession odds move from 18% to 38% in two weeks after tariff news. That's not panic — that's the market pricing in real economic risk using real money.
If you think 38% is too high (overreaction), you bet NO. If you think it should be 60%, you bet YES. Either way, you're using the tracker to find the opportunity.
✅Action: Bookmark this. Check it weekly. Big swings in recession odds = trading opportunities in adjacent markets (S&P, rates, etc.)
Bottom line: The crowd's best guess about a recession is more accurate than most economists. This shows you that number in real time.
Full guide →Quick Answer
this tracker shows the live 2026 US recession probability from Kalshi — traders putting real money on whether the NBER declares a recession. Because the price updates continuously and traders are exposed to being wrong, it tends to move faster than economist surveys.
Prediction markets aggregate real money — traders are personally exposed to being wrong, which is more informative than a survey or a model estimate with no skin in the game. This tracker pulls live Kalshi prices every 5 minutes and pairs them with a FRED-based composite model so you can see at a glance when the market has drifted away from the underlying data.
7%why?
- Yield curve (10Y–3M probit)14% × 30% = 0.04pp
- Sahm Rule trigger0% × 20% = 0pp
- Initial claims 4w/26w0% × 20% = 0pp
- Unemployment vs 12m low0% × 20% = 0pp
- Yield curve (10Y–2Y)24% × 10% = 0.02pp
Risk × weight = contribution. Components sum to the composite probability.
Model = weighted composite of yield curve (T10Y3M 30%, T10Y2Y 10%), Sahm Rule (20%), jobless claims 4w/26w (20%), and unemployment vs 12-month low (20%). When the spread is sharp, one side has missed something — the data, or the headline.
Each market line dot is a daily Kalshi KXRECSSNBER last price. Each model line dot is the daily FRED composite. Visible gap = the spread, visible drift = the shifting thesis.
Source: Kalshi · Vol = 24h trading volume
Related Tools
Why prediction markets for recession odds?
The Federal Reserve, Wall Street banks, and academic economists publish recession probability estimates. Most range between 20–40% depending on methodology. Prediction markets like Kalshi cut through the noise: traders put real money on a binary outcome — recession or no recession before a specific date — and the market price is the crowd's best estimate.
Historically, prediction market probabilities have outperformed economist surveys on recession timing. The key advantage: traders update instantly when new data drops (CPI, NFP, GDP), while survey-based forecasts lag by weeks or months.
What drives the recession probability gauge?
The headline number comes from Kalshi's KXRECSSNBER-26 market — a binary contract that pays $1 if the NBER officially declares a recession in 2026. Key inputs that move this price:
- GDP prints — two consecutive negative quarters is the rough NBER trigger
- Unemployment rate — rapid rises historically precede NBER declarations
- Yield curve — the 10Y/2Y inversion is the most-watched leading indicator
- Fed policy — rate cuts often lag recession onset by 3–6 months
- Tariff and trade shocks — supply-side contractions show up in ISM manufacturing
How to embed this recession tracker
Hit the Embed button above. Choose gauge (best for articles needing a single number) or timeline (best for trend coverage). Paste one iframe. The gauge updates automatically — no maintenance required.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current recession probability?
The recession probability is a live price from Kalshi prediction markets — traders putting real money on whether the NBER will declare a 2026 recession. Because the price updates continuously and traders are exposed to being wrong, it tends to outperform survey-based forecasts on timing.
How does a prediction market measure recession probability?
Kalshi lists binary contracts that pay $1 if the NBER officially declares a recession and $0 if it does not. The market price of that contract in cents is the crowd's consensus probability — a 25¢ contract implies a 25% probability. Because traders profit when they're right and lose when they're wrong, the price aggregates information more efficiently than polls or forecaster surveys.
What triggers a recession call on Kalshi?
Kalshi's recession markets resolve based on an official NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declaration. The NBER typically announces a recession several months after it begins, so prediction markets often price in recession risk well before the official call.
Can I embed this recession tracker on my website?
Yes. Click the Embed button above to get a free iframe code. The gauge auto-updates from live Kalshi data every 5 minutes. No API key or signup required — just paste the iframe.
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