How Kalshi settles Fed funds rate
Rules last read
Settles YES when
The contract resolves YES if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website exceeds the threshold following the named FOMC meeting date.
3 resolution traps in the KXFED rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
Fed funds rateThe contract resolves YES if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website exceeds the threshold following the named FOMC meeting date.3 traps
- Strictly greater than, not greater-or-equal — If the upper bound lands exactly on the threshold after the meeting, the contract resolves NO — hitting the threshold precisely is not sufficient.
- Rate must be published after that specific meeting — Any prior rate level is irrelevant; settlement is tied to the rate published following the designated meeting, so an inter-meeting change beforehand would not count.
- Upper bound only — not the lower bound or midpoint — The Fed publishes a target range; only the upper bound is the operative metric, so traders tracking the lower bound or effective rate could misjudge resolution.
KXFED contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
Our record on KXFED
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Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle Fed funds rate markets?
The contract resolves YES if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website exceeds the threshold following the named FOMC meeting date. That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a Fed funds rate contract resolves?
We flag 3 traps in these rules. The first: Strictly greater than, not greater-or-equal — If the upper bound lands exactly on the threshold after the meeting, the contract resolves NO — hitting the threshold precisely is not sufficient.
What does the KXFED ticker mean?
KXFED is Kalshi's series ticker for Fed funds rate. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading Fed funds rate?
Not yet. We track KXFED settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.
This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.