Macro & economicsKXFED

How Kalshi settles Fed funds rate

Rules last read August 17, 2026

Settles YES when

4 resolution traps in the KXFED rules

The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.

Fed funds rate

4 traps

Strictly greater than — hitting threshold exactly resolves NO — The rule uses "greater than" (not "greater than or equal to"), so if the upper bound lands exactly at the threshold, the contract resolves NO.
Federal Reserve's own website is the sole data source — Only the rate as published on federalreserve.gov counts; quotes from third-party sources (Bloomberg, CME, etc.) are irrelevant if they differ.
Upper bound only — not the midpoint or lower bound — The Fed publishes a target range; only the upper bound of that range is used, not the midpoint or the effective (realized) fed funds rate.
Rate must reflect the specific FOMC meeting outcome — The rate checked is the one published *following* the settlement-date meeting, so any rate in effect before that meeting — even on the same day — does not count.

KXFED contracts open now

ContractYESImplied

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?13c13%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?88c88%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?49c49%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?77c77%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?90c90%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting?77c77%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?22c22%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?94c94%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?74c74%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?92c92%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?91c91%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?83c83%

A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.

Our record on KXFED

We have not graded a position on KXFED. Rather than show a zeroed scorecard, this stays empty until there is a real one. Everything we have graded is on the track record.

Go deeper

September 2026 hike odds — what Kalshi, Polymarket and futures are pricing →August jobs report vs. the September Fed decision →Fed Rate Tracker →Cross-market divergence — Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures →

Read the official KXFED rules on Kalshi →All settlement rules →

Frequently Asked Questions

How does Kalshi settle Fed funds rate markets?

Resolves YES if the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate, as published on the Federal Reserve's official website, is strictly greater than the threshold following the settlement-date FOMC meeting. That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.

What can go wrong when a Fed funds rate contract resolves?

We flag 4 traps in these rules. The first: Strictly greater than — hitting threshold exactly resolves NO — The rule uses "greater than" (not "greater than or equal to"), so if the upper bound lands exactly at the threshold, the contract resolves NO.

What does the KXFED ticker mean?

KXFED is Kalshi's series ticker for Fed funds rate. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.

Do you have a record trading Fed funds rate?

Not yet. We track KXFED settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.

This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.