September 2026 FOMC Meeting — Decision & Market Recap
What prediction markets priced going into the Sep 15–16, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and what the Committee actually did.
Decision: the Fed hiked by 25 basis points
Raised to 3.75–4.00%, effective Sept. 17. 12–0 vote, unanimous — after July’s 9–3 hold with three dissents in favor of a hike.
This market has settled. See live odds for Oct 27–28, 2026.
Quick Answer
the Sep 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting has already happened — the Committee hiked by 25 basis points. Its Kalshi KXFED contracts have settled, so the odds below are the final pre-decision snapshot, kept as a record of what the market expected. For live odds, see the Oct 27–28, 2026 meeting.
See the full KXFED ladder →Sep 15–16, 2026
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Hike Watch
Sep 15–16, 2026 · 0 days outHike odds for Sep first closed above 50% on Aug 28, and sit at 87% today.
Who Was Right
Sep 15–16, 2026 · settledThe Fed’s decision: 25bp hike. Each venue’s last close before the announcement, on that outcome:
| Venue | P(25bp hike) at the close | Result |
|---|---|---|
| CME fed funds futures implied | 94.3% | closest |
| Polymarket | 88.5% | — |
| Kalshi | 86.5% | — |
Futures was closest, by 5.8pp over Polymarket. One meeting is one data point — the running record across every graded meeting is on the cross-market divergence page.
Scored on each venue’s daily close on its last pre-decision day, on the realized outcome only. Polymarket is the international book; the futures figure is a probability derived from the CME fed funds futures curve, not a contract price.
Three Venues, Day by Day
Sep 15–16, 2026 · 25bp hikeDaily close of the 25bp hike outcome on each venue, Aug 15 to Sep 16. The line is the price; the gap between lines is the divergence.
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- CME fed funds futures implied
| Day | Kalshi | Polymarket | Futures | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 | 85.5% | 100.0% | — | 14.5pp |
| Sep 15 | 86.5% | 88.5% | 94.3% | 7.8pp |
| Sep 14 | 86.0% | 87.5% | 94.3% | 8.3pp |
| Sep 13 | 77.0% | 78.5% | 83.6% | 6.6pp |
| Sep 12 | 79.5% | 79.5% | 85.7% | 6.2pp |
| Sep 11 | 79.0% | 80.5% | 85.7% | 6.7pp |
| Sep 10 | 62.5% | 64.5% | 66.4% | 3.9pp |
| Sep 9 | 54.0% | 53.5% | 60.0% | 6.5pp |
| Sep 8 | 53.0% | 54.5% | 57.9% | 4.9pp |
| Sep 7 | 50.0% | 51.5% | 57.9% | 7.9pp |
| Sep 6 | 49.5% | 49.5% | 57.9% | 8.4pp |
| Sep 5 | 50.0% | 49.5% | 58.3% | 8.8pp |
| Sep 4 | 49.5% | 48.5% | 55.7% | 7.2pp |
| Sep 3 | 43.5% | 42.5% | 48.9% | 6.4pp |
| Sep 2 | 54.0% | 53.5% | 60.0% | 6.5pp |
| Sep 1 | 60.0% | 58.0% | 68.6% | 10.6pp |
| Aug 31 | 57.0% | 54.5% | 64.3% | 9.8pp |
| Aug 30 | 50.0% | 52.5% | 61.7% | 11.7pp |
| Aug 29 | 47.0% | — | — | — |
| Aug 28 | 51.0% | — | — | — |
Series: daily close of the 25bp hike outcome for the Sep 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting on Kalshi, Polymarket, CME fed funds futures implied. Kalshi is the KXFED ladder; Polymarket is the per-meeting ladder on the international book; the futures figure is derived from the CME fed funds futures curve by the published FedWatch method and is a probability, not a contract price. Three-venue capture began Aug 30; the Kalshi series runs from Aug 15. Nothing before either date is backfilled — a pre-decision price cannot be reconstructed after the fact. Drawn for the next meeting only: it is the one meeting where Kalshi’s cumulative rate-level contract and the per-meeting venues answer the same question, so the gap is a real disagreement rather than a difference in what is being asked.
SEP Dot Plot Watch
Sep 15–16, 2026Kalshi’s KXDOTPLOT ladder prices the Fed’s own forecast — the median projected federal funds rate for year-end 2026 in the Summary of Economic Projections. It is a different question from the rate decision itself: this is where the committee says rates are going, not what it does at this meeting.
Read this ladder carefully. Only 10 of 12 strikes have ever traded and the widest quote is 100¢ wide, so treat each strike as a band rather than a price. And the ladder is not exhaustive: per the contract’s own clarification, if the Fed publishes no SEP at this meeting — or an SEP with no median year-end-2026 projection — every strike resolves No, not void. That risk sits inside all twelve prices at once, which is why they do not add to 100%. How KXDOTPLOT settles →
Kalshi · as of Oct 3, 9:30 AM ET
The case for each side
Sep 15–16, 2026- •Core CPI prints 0.3% MoM or hotter again — inflation not cooling
- •Energy prices keep feeding headline inflation
- •Payrolls solid (NFP 150K+) with unemployment flat
- •Chair and dots keep signalling more tightening is needed
- •Core CPI at or below 0.2% MoM — the last move is working
- •Payrolls weak or unemployment rising
- •Energy prices roll over and headline inflation cools
- •Chair signals patience at the press conference
The leading outcome is listed first. Odds update as economic data prints.
Key Dates
Trade the Oct 27–28, 2026 Fed decision
The contract for this meeting has settled. Kalshi’s KXFED ladder is live for the next one — take a position on cut, hold, or hike. New accounts get a sign-up bonus through our referral.
Related tools
Related reading
September 2026 hike — graded
What the three venues priced, and which was closest
August jobs report vs. the Fed
Real strength or seasonal mirage — both sides
Fed dot plot, September 2026
The KXDOTPLOT ladder and how it settled
Cross-market divergence
Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures — who has been right
How KXFED settles
The contract language behind the basis
Trading Fed decisions
The guide
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What the Fed Did at the September 2026 FOMC Meeting
The Sep 15–16, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting is one of 8 scheduled FOMC meetings in 2026 where the Fed sets the federal funds rate target range. Prediction markets on Kalshi allow traders to take a position on the outcome — cut 50bp, cut 25bp, hold, hike 25bp, or hike 50bp — with each contract price reflecting the market-implied probability of that outcome.
Unlike opinion polls or analyst forecasts, prediction market prices are backed by real money. When a contract trades at 65¢, market participants are collectively saying there is a 65% probability of that rate decision. As new economic data arrives — CPI, NFP, PCE, GDP — the price moves, and every day's close is kept in the archive so you can see what each print did.
How to Trade the September 2026 FOMC Meeting
The best edge comes from correctly anticipating how upcoming indicator releases will shift the odds. Before a CPI print, ask: if inflation comes in hotter than consensus, how much should cut probability fall? Each indicator's sensitivity page gives the typical move per surprise. If Kalshi doesn't move as much as that history says it should — or Polymarket and futures disagree — that gap is the trade.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the Fed decide at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?
At the Sep 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting the Committee hiked by 25 basis points. Raised to 3.75–4.00%, effective Sept. 17. 12–0 vote, unanimous — after July’s 9–3 hold with three dissents in favor of a hike. This page keeps the final pre-decision Kalshi KXFED snapshot as a record of what prediction markets expected going in.
Did prediction markets get the September 2026 Fed decision right?
This page shows the last KXFED snapshot taken before the announcement, so you can compare what the market priced against what the Committee actually did. Our running tally across every meeting we hold pre-decision data for is on the Fed Rate Tracker hub — market data begins July 2026, so the sample is deliberately small rather than backfilled.
Where can I trade the next FOMC decision on Kalshi?
The Sep 15–16, 2026 contracts have settled. Kalshi's KXFED ladder for the Oct 27–28, 2026 meeting is live now — it lists a threshold contract per rate outcome, and each YES contract pays $1 if that outcome settles.