Inflation Tracker
Live CPI probability distribution from Kalshi — implied median, full bracket breakdown, and core CPI. Updated every 5 minutes.
KXCPIYOY CDF marketsMACRO · CPI
What's the market pricing for next month's CPI print?
What is this?
CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the monthly report that tells you how fast prices are rising. When it comes in hotter than expected, markets drop. When it's cooler, markets rally. This tracker shows you what prediction markets expect CPI to print before it's released.
If you have a view that inflation is going to surprise — in either direction — this is where you turn that view into a trade on Kalshi.
Real-World Example
→ Pre-CPI Setup
Markets say 54% chance CPI comes in above 3.3%. You're shopping for groceries and things seem noticeably more expensive than last month. Your real-world observation is data too.
You back your hunch and buy "CPI above 3.3%" at 54¢. CPI prints at 3.5%. Your position jumps to 95¢. You just turned grocery shopping into market research.
✅Action: Your lived experience of prices matters. Check this tracker before the CPI release date to find your angle.
Bottom line: Real people notice inflation before economists do. Trust your eyes — then check if the market agrees.
Full guide →The Fed targets 2% inflation. Kalshi traders are pricing ~3.7% CPI YoY for May 2026. That gap is the most important number in markets right now — it determines whether the Fed can cut, whether bonds rally, and whether the equity multiple holds. This tracker shows not just the median but the full probability distribution: how confident the crowd is, and where the fat tails are.
P(CPI > median) ≈ 50%
Excl. food & energy
Gold = nearest to 50% (implied median) · Source: Kalshi KXCPIYOY
P(bracket) = P(>lower) − P(>upper) · intervals reflect available Kalshi thresholds
Related Tools
How Kalshi prices CPI inflation probability
Kalshi's KXCPIYOY series lists "above X%" contracts for each upcoming CPI print. A contract that pays $1 if CPI YoY exceeds 3.7% and $0 if it doesn't will trade at the crowd's probability estimate. If the contract trades at 51¢, the market thinks there's a 51% chance CPI runs above 3.7%.
By reading prices across multiple thresholds (3.0%, 3.1%, 3.2%...), you reconstruct the full CDF — and from the CDF, you can derive the implied median, the mode, and the width of the distribution. A tighter distribution means more certainty; a wider spread means traders disagree about where inflation lands.
What the current inflation market is saying
The implied median CPI YoY for the next print is approximately 3.7% — well above the Fed's 2% target and above the current reported figure. This reflects:
- Tariff pass-through — goods prices expected to re-accelerate in 2026
- Shelter stickiness — OER and rent components remain elevated
- Energy volatility — oil price uncertainty adds variance to the right tail
- Services inflation — wage growth above 3% keeps services CPI elevated
Embedding the inflation tracker
The distribution embed shows the full bracket probabilities — ideal for economics newsletters, personal finance blogs, and Fed-watching content. The implied median is the headline number for any article that wants a single data point. Hit Embed above.
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