Inflation Tracker

The Fed targets 2% inflation. Kalshi traders are pricing ~3.7% CPI YoY for May 2026. That gap is the most important number in markets right now — it determines whether the Fed can cut, whether bonds rally, and whether the equity multiple holds. This tracker shows not just the median but the full probability distribution: how confident the crowd is, and where the fat tails are.

How Kalshi prices CPI inflation probability

Kalshi's KXCPIYOY series lists "above X%" contracts for each upcoming CPI print. A contract that pays $1 if CPI YoY exceeds 3.7% and $0 if it doesn't will trade at the crowd's probability estimate. If the contract trades at 51¢, the market thinks there's a 51% chance CPI runs above 3.7%.

By reading prices across multiple thresholds (3.0%, 3.1%, 3.2%...), you reconstruct the full CDF — and from the CDF, you can derive the implied median, the mode, and the width of the distribution. A tighter distribution means more certainty; a wider spread means traders disagree about where inflation lands.

What the current inflation market is saying

The implied median CPI YoY for the next print is approximately 3.7% — well above the Fed's 2% target and above the current reported figure. This reflects:

• Tariff pass-through — goods prices expected to re-accelerate in 2026
• Shelter stickiness — OER and rent components remain elevated
• Energy volatility — oil price uncertainty adds variance to the right tail
• Services inflation — wage growth above 3% keeps services CPI elevated

Embedding the inflation tracker

The distribution embed shows the full bracket probabilities — ideal for economics newsletters, personal finance blogs, and Fed-watching content. The implied median is the headline number for any article that wants a single data point. Hit Embed above.