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7 ORACLES NBA REPORT · FRI, NOV 6

7 Oracles NBA Report — Friday, Nov 6

$611K on the Sixers, a 14¢ Prop Gap, and the Raptors at 63¢ vs 72¢

The 7 Oracles desk · Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:15 PM ET; updated

Quick Answer

Nine NBA games Friday: $611K of Kalshi money on the Sixers at Cleveland, a 14¢ Kalshi-vs-books gap on Peyton Watson, and a Raptors line at 63¢ on Kalshi vs 72¢ at the books.

9 games · prices as of 1:15 PM ET · the boards update live

Nine games tonight. Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:15 PM ET; the live boards are the NBA game board and the Prop Price Board. Every number is market, not model.

Last night was a two-game card, Golden State over Miami 120-100 and Phoenix over Orlando 117-104, so none of tonight's 18 teams played and nobody is on a back-to-back. Tonight: $611K of Kalshi money on the Sixers at Cleveland, the Thunder in Memphis without Chet Holmgren or Jalen Williams, and a Raptors-Bucks line 8¢ apart across venues with Kawhi Leonard out and Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley questionable.

Where the money is

  • PHI at CLE, $611K on the Sixers at 58.5¢ (60.7¢ fee included) against $88K on Cleveland at 41.5¢, the biggest pool on the board. The full game board, Kalshi beside every book → NBA game board.
  • OKC at MEM, $344K on the Thunder at 60.5¢ (62.7¢ fee included) against $47K on Memphis, the crowd on the shorthanded favorite.
  • WAS at ATL, $231K on the Wizards at 27.5¢ against $71K on Atlanta, the only dog pool triple the favorite's.
  • POR at LAL, $136K on the Lakers at 58.5¢; BOS at CHA, $130K on Boston at 76.5¢; SAS at SAC, $63K on the 9.5¢ Kings against $60K on the 89.5¢ Spurs.
  • Most-traded props: Donovan Mitchell 25+ pts ($6,829, YES ask 53¢), Jayson Tatum 35+ pts ($2,801, ask 20¢), Jeremiah Fears 4+ ast ($2,289, ask 43¢), Isaiah Hartenstein 4+ ast ($1,864, ask 43¢), Cedric Coward 8+ reb ($1,492, ask 46¢). Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The disagreements worth knowing

  1. Raptors at Bucks: Kalshi 63¢, the books about 72¢ (DraftKings -257, FanDuel -255; the probability converter does the math). Milwaukee costs 38.6¢ fee included on Kalshi and 31¢ on Novig, a 6.9¢ gap, and the Kalshi crowd has $68K on the Bucks to $25K on the Raptors. On the spread, MIL +7.5 is 61.7¢ on Kalshi against 53.5¢ at FanDuel, an 8.2¢ gap, the widest game-line gap of the night. The reason: Kawhi out, Barnes and Quickley questionable. Here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report + Who Benefits.
  2. Peyton Watson 15+ pts (CLE): Kalshi YES 27.4¢ fee included, best book 41.7¢. A 14.3¢ gap, the widest on the prop board; his 10+ strike is 11.8¢ apart (63.7¢ fee included vs 75.4¢). A gap that wide on a role player usually means one venue moved on news; check his status first.
  3. Evan Mobley 20+ pts: Kalshi YES ask 37¢, books about 46.5¢. A 7.9¢ gap, Kalshi cheapest at 38.6¢ fee included; same game, same direction as Watson.
  4. Jeremiah Fears 4+ ast (NOP): Kalshi YES ask 43¢, DraftKings -125 (about 55.6¢). A 10.2¢ gap with $2,289 traded, so not thin-book noise. Kalshi cheapest at 44.7¢ fee included.
  5. Arbitrage scan: nothing clears 3pp across 12 matched Kalshi-vs-Polymarket markets; the nearest miss is tomorrow's Magic-Warriors at 3.0pp flat (Kalshi 72%, Polymarket 69%, flagged aligned). Live: the Arb Scanner and Kalshi vs Polymarket on NBA. The Kalshi fee calculator shows what the taker fee does to a 43¢ ask.

Game by game (Kalshi mid · tip ET)

Prop strikes below are the Kalshi YES ask before the taker fee unless marked "fee included".

  • BOS @ CHA · 7:00 PM — BOS 76.5¢ / CHA 23.5¢; BOS -8.5 (54¢ / CHA +8.5 46¢); total 208.5 (Over 48.5¢ / Under 51.5¢), the lowest total of the night.
  • Lines: Kalshi is 5.5¢ dearer than Novig on BOS -8.5 (56.7¢ fee included vs 50.5¢) and cheapest on CHA +8.5 at 48.7¢ fee included.
  • Out: Kon Knueppel (left hamstring). Here's more on the injury news → injury report.
  • Who benefits (1 game, an anecdote): Brandon Miller +11.0 pts, +7.8 min; Tidjane Salaun +15.0 min, +7.7 reb; Liam McNeeley +3.2 pts, +1.3 min.
  • Props: Tatum 25+ pts 61¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 62.7¢ fee included), 30+ 39¢, 35+ 20¢. Miller 20+ pts 59¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 60.7¢ fee included), 25+ 35¢.
  • WAS @ ATL · 7:00 PM — WAS 27.5¢ / ATL 72.5¢; ATL -7.5 (51.5¢ / WAS +7.5 48.5¢); total 228.5 (50.5¢ / 49.5¢).
  • Questionable: Jalen Johnson (left ankle), a fork until the 5 PM report. Out: Reece Beekman, Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic and Jamir Watkins (WAS), Keshon Gilbert (ATL).
  • Who benefits if Johnson sits: Corey Kispert +10.0 pts, +10.1 min, +4.6% usage (6 games); CJ McCollum +6.7 pts, +5.6% usage on flat minutes (5 games); Dyson Daniels +2.0 pts (52 games).
  • PHI @ CLE · 7:30 PM — PHI 58.5¢ / CLE 41.5¢; PHI -2.5 (50.5¢ / CLE +2.5 49.5¢); total 230.5 (50.5¢ / 49.5¢).
  • Story: the tightest spread and the biggest pool of the night, Jaylen Brown and Joel Embiid in Philadelphia against James Harden, Mitchell and Mobley. No Sixers or Cavs star was carded on the 1 PM report we pulled; full list on the injury report.
  • Props: Mitchell 25+ pts 53¢ on $6,829 traded, Kalshi cheapest on the NO at 49.8¢ fee included. Mobley 20+ pts 37¢ (7.9¢ under the books). Watson 15+ pts 26¢ (14.3¢ under). Brown 20+ pts 53¢. Embiid 15+ pts 82¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 83¢ fee included).
  • MIN @ NOP · 8:00 PM — MIN 60.5¢ / NOP 39.5¢; MIN -4.5 (46.5¢ / NOP +4.5 53.5¢); total 231.5 (47.5¢ / 52.5¢), tied for the highest.
  • Lines: light pools, $58K on Minnesota and $18K on New Orleans. Neither team's absences were carded in our pull; check the injury report before lock.
  • Props: Fears 4+ ast 43¢ with $2,289 traded and the books at 55.6¢ (the 10.2¢ gap above); 6+ ast 15¢, 5.4¢ under the books; 15+ pts 48¢.
  • OKC @ MEM · 8:00 PM — OKC 60.5¢ / MEM 39.5¢; OKC -3.5 (52.5¢ / MEM +3.5 47.5¢) and OKC -4.5 (48.5¢ / 51.5¢); total 224.5 (48.5¢ / 51.5¢).
  • Story: $344K on the Thunder without two of their top three; Cameron Boozer, the Rookie of the Year odds favorite per today's preview, is on the other side.
  • Out: Chet Holmgren (right knee recovery), Jalen Williams (left ankle surgery), Cason Wallace, Nikola Topic, Thomas Sorber and Jaylin Williams for OKC; Scotty Pippen Jr. and Isaiah Stewart for Memphis → injury report.
  • Who benefits without Holmgren: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +3.1 pts, +1.4 min (55 games); Kenrich Williams +2.1 pts, +4.6 min (60 games); Isaiah Hartenstein +2.7 reb, +4.0 min (43 games).
  • Who benefits without Jalen Williams: Jared McCain +6.5 pts, +5.2 min, +4.8% usage (21 games); Ajay Mitchell +5.8 pts, +6.3 min, +6.1% usage (31 games); Kenrich Williams +2.5 pts, +5.5 min (44 games).
  • Props: SGA ladder at the Kalshi mid: 25+ pts 82.5¢, 30+ 59¢, 35+ 38.5¢, 40+ 19.5¢; 8+ ast 25¢, Kalshi cheapest at 27.4¢ fee included, a 6.5¢ gap to the books. Kenrich Williams 10+ pts 51.5¢ mid, Kalshi cheapest at 53.8¢ fee included, 6.8¢ under the books. Boozer 15+ pts 60¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 61.7¢ fee included).
  • TOR @ MIL · 8:00 PM — TOR 63¢ / MIL 36.5¢; TOR -6.5 (44¢ / MIL +6.5 56¢); total 231.5 (Over 44.5¢ / Under 55.5¢), tied for the highest.
  • Story: Toronto 4-4, Milwaukee 1-7 per today's preview; the Bucks carry $68K of Kalshi money to the Raptors' $25K (item 1 above).
  • Out / Questionable: Kawhi Leonard (left knee management) and Nate Bittle out; Scottie Barnes (left adductor), Immanuel Quickley (right hamstring) and Kyle Anderson (illness) questionable. Three forks in one lineup → injury report.
  • Who benefits if Quickley sits: Jakob Poeltl +3.4 pts, +2.7 min (45 games); Jamison Battle +3.2 pts, +5.3 min (51 games); RJ Barrett +2.8 pts, +1.8 ast (47 games).
  • Who benefits if Barnes sits: Poeltl +3.4 pts, +3.4 min, +3.7% usage (17 games); Quickley +2.5 pts, +1.5 ast (6 games, small); Barrett +1.0 pts, +2.6 ast (17 games).
  • Props: fork ladders, so a strike on a player who sits is a stale quote, not value. Barnes 20+ pts 64¢ mid (Kalshi cheapest, 66.6¢ fee included), 25+ 31¢ mid. Quickley 20+ pts 45¢ mid. Over 231.5: Kalshi cheapest at 46.7¢ fee included, 5.2¢ under the books.
  • UTA @ DAL · 8:00 PM — UTA 29.5¢ / DAL 71.5¢; DAL -7.5 (46.5¢ / UTA +7.5 53.5¢); total 225.5 (51.5¢ / 48.5¢) with $27K traded and 227.5 (46.5¢ / 53.5¢) with $17K.
  • Lines: $71K on Dallas, $11K on Utah. Kalshi is 3.3¢ dearer than Novig on UTA +7.5 (55.7¢ vs 51.9¢) and 4.1¢ under any book on Over 227.5 at 48.7¢ fee included. Absences: injury report.
  • POR @ LAL · 10:00 PM — POR 41.5¢ / LAL 58.5¢; LAL -2.5 (53¢ / POR +2.5 47¢) and LAL -3.5 (49¢ / 51¢); total 231.5 (51.5¢ / 48.5¢), tied for the highest.
  • Lines: $136K on the Lakers to $57K on Portland; Kalshi is 3.3¢ dearer than the best book on LAL -2.5 (55.7¢ fee included vs 52.4¢).
  • Out: Ja Morant (left hamstring strain) for Portland. No shared history on this roster, so no with/without splits to name → injury report.
  • SAS @ SAC · 10:00 PM — SAS 89.5¢ / SAC 9.5¢; SAS -16.5 (50.5¢ / SAC +16.5 49.5¢) and SAS -15.5 (55.5¢ / 44.5¢); total 228.5 (Over 53.5¢ / Under 46.5¢).
  • Lines: the biggest spread on the board, the books from -1115 to -1400 on the Spurs. Kalshi is cheapest on Under 228.5 (48.7¢ fee included) and SAC +15.5 (46.7¢ fee included).

Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The DFS sprinkle

  • Minutes first. Projection is per-minute production times minutes. Tonight's minutes reads: Ajay Mitchell +6.3 min, +5.8 pts without Jalen Williams (31 games), Jared McCain +5.2 min, +6.5 pts (21 games), Kenrich Williams +4.6 min without Holmgren (60 games); Jamison Battle +5.3 min if Quickley sits (51 games), Jakob Poeltl +3.4 min if Barnes sits (17 games); Corey Kispert +10.1 min if Jalen Johnson sits (6 games); Brandon Miller +7.8 min without Knueppel (1 game).
  • Salaries lag roles by days. No page we pulled showed DraftKings salaries; check them against the player prices on the Prop Price Board, which reprice a role change the same afternoon.
  • Lines before players. Tightest spread plus a real total: PHI-CLE (-2.5, 230.5), then POR-LAL (-2.5, 231.5). Blowout risk for the favorite's starters: SAS -16.5 and BOS -8.5, though the other side still shoots.
  • Value chalk and stud leverage. The near-minimum 30-minute roles are whoever absorbs the Holmgren and Jalen Williams minutes in OKC and the Barnes/Quickley minutes in Toronto. Ownership will pile onto SGA and Mitchell ($6,829 on his 25+ strike); the leverage is the star priced the same but owned less.
  • Build to swap. Lock is 7:00 PM ET. Late decisions: Jalen Johnson (ATL, 7:00), Barnes, Quickley and Kyle Anderson (TOR, 8:00). Early-tip players in fixed slots, G/F/UTIL for the 8:00 and 10:00 games; the fork page refreshes at 5 PM → injury report.
  • Back-to-backs: nobody; only the Warriors, Heat, Suns and Magic played last night.
  • First month, be different. Roles are unknown and ownership is thin, so take the second-best stud. If you cannot be at the computer from lock through the 10:00 window, play a smaller slate.
  • Sizing: the prediction-market side goes through Kelly and the EV calculator first.

Housekeeping

More from the 7 Oracles NBA desk

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Past 7 Oracles NBA Reports

Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets. Market information, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

7 Oracles NBA Report — frequently asked

What is Today's 7 Oracles NBA Report?

A daily read of the NBA slate on prediction markets: where the money is on Kalshi, where Kalshi and the other venues disagree on the same game or player line, game-by-game notes and a short DFS minutes read. It is market information — what the venues are pricing — so you can make your own call.

When does the report update?

Every game day at about 1:30 PM ET, right after the league's official 1 PM injury report, so the prices it quotes already reflect who is in and who is out. This page always shows the newest report; each day also keeps its own dated page in the archive.

Where do the prices come from?

Kalshi prices sit beside the same lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX — the same data as our NBA Prop Price Board and game-lines table. Every price carries a time stamp. Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets.

Is the report a pick?

No. It reports what the markets are pricing and where they disagree. The DFS notes are minutes reads from the injury report, not projections. The call is yours; trade responsibly.

Where are past reports?

Each day’s report has its own page at /nba/report/<date> — the archive list sits at the bottom of this page.