7 ORACLES NBA REPORT · WED, NOV 4

7 Oracles NBA Report — Wednesday, Nov 4

$995K on the Sixers at 44.5¢, a 20¢ Derrick White Gap With Tatum Resting, and Anthony Edwards Out in Houston

Biggest Kalshi pool
$995K
76ers ML at DET, 44.5¢
Widest gap vs the books
20¢
D. White 6+ ast, Kalshi NO
Tonight
14 games
first tip 7:00 PM ET

The 7 Oracles desk · Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:30 PM ET; updated 1:53 PM ET

Quick Answer

Fourteen games tonight. $995K rides the Sixers at 44.5¢, Kalshi has Derrick White at 60¢ for 6+ assists while the books sit near 44¢, and Anthony Edwards is out. Kalshi mids as of 1:30 PM ET.

14 games · prices as of 1:30 PM ET · the boards update live

Fourteen games tonight, first tip 7:00 PM ET. Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:30 PM ET; the live boards are the NBA game board and the Prop Price Board. Every number is market, not model.

The league sat out Election Day on Tuesday, so there is no scoreboard to recap and nobody on tonight's 14-game card is on a back-to-back. The night is about who is missing: Jayson Tatum rests against Milwaukee with Payton Pritchard questionable, Anthony Edwards is out in Houston, Haliburton, Holmgren and Duren sit, and Jalen Johnson is a fork in Washington. Here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report + Who Benefits

Where the money is

Sixers moneyline, $995K — the biggest Kalshi pool on the board by a mile, on PHI at 44.5¢ (46.7¢ fee included) against DET 55.5¢ with $436K behind the Pistons. The books have Philly +112 to +128.
Bucks $299K vs Celtics $119K — the crowd is on the 19.5¢ dog with Tatum resting. Mavericks $223K on the 17.5¢ dog vs $61K on the Spurs.
Thunder $240K at 60¢ vs Cavs $102K at 39.5¢. The full game board, Kalshi beside every book → NBA game board
Most-traded props (volume, YES ask): Luka Dončić 35+ pts $3.9K at 51¢; Derrick White 6+ ast $3.8K at 60¢; Brayden Burries 2+ ast $3.1K at 62¢; Luka 40+ pts $2.8K at 30¢; Kevin Durant 25+ pts $2.4K at 43¢. Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board

The disagreements worth knowing

Derrick White 6+ assists (MIL @ BOS) — the widest prop gap on the board. Kalshi YES ask 60¢, NO ask 41¢; the books have the over near +125, about 44¢ by the probability converter. Kalshi's NO is 42.7¢ fee included, 20¢ below the 59.7¢ next-best. With Tatum out and Pritchard questionable, the Kalshi crowd has moved White to point guard; the books have not.
MIL @ BOS total 223.5. Kalshi Over 44.5¢ / Under 55.5¢ against books near -110 both ways. Kalshi's Over is 46.7¢ fee included, 4.5¢ under every book; the Under is 5.3¢ dearer than Novig at 51.5¢. MIL +11.5 is 53.5¢ on Kalshi vs 50¢ on Novig. The crowd expects a slow, Tatum-less game.
Donovan Mitchell's ladder (CLE @ OKC). 25+ pts: Kalshi 34¢ ask, 35.6¢ fee included vs 40¢ next-best (7.9¢; books +113 to +130). 20+ pts: 61¢ ask, 62.7¢ vs 69.2¢ (6.6¢). 30+ pts: 17¢ ask, 18¢ vs 22.5¢. The books are higher on Mitchell all the way up.
Game lines 3¢ or wider. OKC ML 62.7¢ fee included vs Novig 58.5¢ (3.0¢). MEM -6.5 at 49.8¢ fee included is 3.3¢ under the books; IND +6.5 at 52.5¢ is 3.5¢ dearer than ProphetX. Kalshi-cheapest overs: LAL @ SAC 234.5 (48.7¢, 3.7¢ under the books) and ATL @ WAS 232.5 (47.7¢, 3.5¢ under); ATL -2.5 at 53.5¢ is 3.3¢ dearer than the best book.

Cross-venue scan: no Kalshi-vs-Polymarket NBA gap clears 3pp across 12 matched markets; the closest near misses are 1.5pp on Friday's PHI-CLE and OKC-MEM. Arb Scanner · Kalshi vs Polymarket on NBA

Game by game (Kalshi mid · tip ET)

Prop strikes are the Kalshi YES ask before the taker fee unless marked "fee included".

ATL @ WAS · 7:00 PM — ATL 57.5¢ / WAS 41.5¢; ATL -2.5 (53.5¢); total 232.5 (Over 45.5¢)
Story: tightest spread on the card; the Wizards' pool ($157K) edges the Hawks' ($152K).
Questionable: Jalen Johnson (ATL, ankle), Bilal Coulibaly (WAS, illness), Alex Sarr (WAS, knee). Out: Gueye, Landale, Veesaar (ATL) and four Wizards reserves. The fork →
Who benefits: without Johnson — Corey Kispert +10.1 min, +10.0 pts (6 games); Asa Newell +16.7 min, +6.8 pts (8 games, mostly with Porzingis also out). Without Coulibaly — Bub Carrington +4.8 min, +3.3 pts (49 games). Without Sarr — Will Riley +11.0 min, +7.3 pts (33 games).
Props: Johnson 20+ pts 58¢, 8+ ast 45¢ — stale if he is ruled out. Anthony Davis 25+ pts 46¢ ($1.2K traded); AJ Dybantsa 6+ reb 45¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 46.7¢ fee included).

PHI @ DET · 7:00 PM — PHI 44.5¢ / DET 55.5¢; DET -2.5 (51¢); total 219.5 (Over 49.5¢)
Out: Jalen Duren (DET, hamstring), Isaiah Joe (DET); Dominick Barlow, Ariel Hukporti (PHI). Who benefits →
Who benefits: Paul Reed +17.3 min, +9.3 pts, +4.3 reb (16 games); Daniss Jenkins +9.7 min, +5.3 pts, +2.7 ast (13 games); Javonte Green +6.7 min, +4.2 pts (12 games).
Props: Reed 4+ reb YES is 6.9¢ cheaper on Kalshi than the books per the board; Jenkins 4+ ast 57¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 58.7¢ fee included). Cade Cunningham 25+ pts 49¢ ($1.9K traded); Jaylen Brown 20+ pts 53¢ ($2.4K).

CHA @ BKN · 7:30 PM — CHA 60.5¢ / BKN 39.5¢; CHA -3.5 (51¢); total 212.5 (Over 51.5¢)
Story: lowest total of the night, thin pools ($33K / $19K); Egor Demin (BKN) out.

CHI @ NYK · 7:30 PM — CHI 16.5¢ / NYK 83.5¢; NYK -12.5 (47.5¢); total 234.5 (Over 48.5¢)
Out / Questionable: Josh Hart (NYK, out, ankle); Nic Claxton (CHI, questionable). No shared-history splits for either on the injury page.
Props: Landry Shamet 10+ pts 51¢ ($2.4K traded) vs 43.5¢ at FanDuel — Kalshi has already priced Hart's minutes into Shamet. Hart's 4+ ast market (59¢, $1.4K) is a stale quote, not a gap.

MIL @ BOS · 7:30 PM — MIL 19.5¢ / BOS 80.5¢; BOS -11.5 (46.5¢); total 223.5 (Over 44.5¢)
Story: Boston at 82.1¢ fee included is Kalshi-cheapest; the Bucks' pool is 2.5x Boston's.
Out: Jayson Tatum (rest), Devin Carter (BOS). Questionable: Payton Pritchard (BOS, shoulder); Kam Jones (MIL). Splits →
Who benefits: without Tatum — Neemias Queta +9.1 min, +3.8 pts, +3.7 reb (69 games); Jordan Walsh +10.5 min, +3.4 pts (74 games). If Pritchard also sits — Baylor Scheierman +18.9 min, +9.4 pts (4 games); Sam Hauser +7.3 pts (4 games); small samples.
Props: White 6+ ast 60¢ (the 20¢ gap), 8+ ast 28¢ vs 18¢ at Novig. Paul George 20+ pts 58¢, 25+ 34¢. Queta 15+ pts 25¢ ($1.9K traded). Pritchard 15+ pts 66¢ — stale if ruled out.

CLE @ OKC · 9:00 PM — CLE 39.5¢ / OKC 60¢; OKC -3.5 (50¢); total 226.5 (Over 50.5¢)
Story: coin-flip spread; CLE at 41.7¢ fee included is Kalshi-cheapest.
Out: Chet Holmgren (OKC, knee recovery). Who benefits →
Who benefits: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +3.1 pts (55 games); Jaylin Williams +2.3 pts, +2.0 reb (41 games); Kenrich Williams +4.6 min, +2.1 pts (60 games).
Props: Mitchell 20+/25+/30+ pts at 61¢/34¢/17¢. Jaylin Williams 10+ pts 26¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 27.4¢ fee included vs 31.7¢).

IND @ MEM · 9:00 PM — IND 31.5¢ / MEM 67.5¢; MEM -6.5 (47.5¢); total 228.5 (Over 49.5¢)
Out: Tyrese Haliburton (IND, hamstring), McConnell, Sheppard, Furphy (IND); Scotty Pippen Jr. (MEM). Questionable: Kelly Oubre Jr., Obi Toppin, Ivica Zubac (IND); Quinten Post (MEM). Splits →
Who benefits: Quenton Jackson +9.2 min, +5.2 pts (7 games); Jarace Walker +5.5 min, +3.0 pts (9 games); Aaron Nesmith +5.1 min, +2.7 pts (6 games); Andrew Nembhard +7.3% usage, +1.8 ast (8 games).
Props: Nembhard 8+ ast 51¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 53.8¢ fee included); Pascal Siakam 25+ pts 38.5¢; Nesmith 2+ 3PM 60¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 62.7¢ fee included).

UTA @ NOP · 9:00 PM — UTA 31.5¢ / NOP 68.5¢; NOP -5.5 (51.5¢); total 233.5 (Over 47.5¢)
Story: $128K on the Pelicans vs $14K on Utah; the Over at 49.8¢ fee included is Kalshi-cheapest.

MIN @ HOU · 9:30 PM — MIN 28.5¢ / HOU 71.5¢; HOU -7.5 (49.5¢); total 220.5 (Over 47.5¢)
Out: Anthony Edwards (MIN, right knee arthroscopy). Who benefits →
Who benefits: Jaden McDaniels +7.0 pts, +2.5 min, +4.7% usage (19 games); Bones Hyland +10.3 min, +6.3 pts (20 games); Ayo Dosunmu +5.8 min, +6.1 pts, +3.3 reb (7 games).
Props: McDaniels 20+ pts 30¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 31.5¢ fee included vs 33.8¢); Dosunmu 15+ pts 54¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 55.7¢ vs 60.9¢); LaMelo Ball 6+ ast 60¢. Kevin Durant 25+ pts 43¢ ($2.4K traded).

POR @ PHX · 10:00 PM — POR 57.5¢ / PHX 42.5¢; POR -3.5 (47¢); total 228.5 (Over 48.5¢)
Story: road favorite, $66K on Portland vs $36K on Phoenix. The board flags Khaman Maluach 8+ reb YES as 11.9¢ cheaper on Kalshi than the books.

TOR @ DEN · 10:00 PM — TOR 37¢ / DEN 63¢; DEN -4.5 (51¢); total 231.5 (Over 49.5¢)
Story: thinnest late pools (about $15K a side); no star on the official report.

DAL @ SAS · 10:30 PM — DAL 17.5¢ / SAS 82.5¢; SAS -12.5 (49.5¢); total 225.5 (Over 51.5¢)
Story: the card's second-largest dog pool, $223K on Dallas at 17.5¢ against $61K on the Spurs.

LAL @ SAC · 11:00 PM — LAL 83.5¢ / SAC 16.5¢; LAL -12.5 (47.5¢); total 234.5 (Over 46.5¢)
Story: the Over at 48.7¢ fee included is 3.7¢ under every book; the Under on Kalshi is 4.5¢ dearer than ProphetX.
Props: Luka Dončić 30+ pts 72¢, 35+ 51¢ ($3.9K traded, vs 47.6¢ at Fanatics), 40+ 30¢ ($2.8K); 5+ 3PM 44¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 45.7¢ fee included). Darius Acuff Jr. 25+ pts 49¢ ($1.9K).

MIA @ LAC · 11:30 PM — MIA 64.5¢ / LAC 35.5¢; MIA -4.5 (53.5¢); total 234.5 (Over 47.5¢)
Story: Giannis Antetokounmpo is probable (wrist) per the Covers injury page; the Over at 49.8¢ fee included is Kalshi-cheapest. Tiny Clippers pool ($9K).

Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board

The DFS sprinkle

Minutes first. Projection is per-minute production times minutes, so the plays are the beneficiaries: Paul Reed (+17.3 min without Duren, 16 games), Queta (+9.1) and Walsh (+10.5) without Tatum, Hyland (+10.3) and McDaniels (+4.7% usage) without Edwards, Quenton Jackson (+9.2) without Haliburton, Asa Newell (+16.7) if Johnson sits. Player prices: Prop Price Board.
Salaries lag roles by days. Shamet (Hart out), Reed (Duren out), Jackson (Haliburton and McConnell out) and Minnesota's wings (Edwards out) are this week's role changes. No page we trust showed tonight's DraftKings salaries; check them at lock.
Game lines before players. 234.5 totals three ways (CHI @ NYK, LAL @ SAC, MIA @ LAC), but two carry 12.5-point spreads — blowout risk for Knicks and Lakers starters; the dog side still scores. Tight and high: ATL @ WAS (232.5, -2.5), UTA @ NOP (233.5, -5.5).
Chalk and leverage. Near-minimum players with a 30-minute path (Reed, Jackson, Hyland) are the value chalk. Ownership will pile onto Luka and Cade; Durant (25+ pts at 43¢) and Anthony Davis (25+ at 46¢) are the pivots.
Build to swap. Early tips in fixed slots, 10:00–11:30 players in G/F/UTIL. Late decisions: Johnson, Coulibaly, Sarr (7:00); Pritchard, Claxton (7:30); Oubre, Toppin, Zubac (9:00). Injury page →
Rest, and being different. Nobody played last night, so there is no fatigue angle. First month: roles are unknown and ownership is thin, so roster the second beneficiary (Walsh, Jenkins, Hyland) rather than the first. If you cannot be at the computer at lock and through the late window, play a smaller slate.
Lock is 7:00 PM ET. Size with Kelly and the EV calculator; the Kalshi fee calculator shows the true cost of an ask.

Housekeeping

The official injury report refreshes at 1 PM and 5 PM ET; the injury page shows who benefits, with sample sizes.
Tomorrow's board (Kalshi mids): ORL @ PHX — PHX 51.5¢; MIA @ GSW — GSW 61.5¢.
How Kalshi NBA contracts settle · NBA prediction markets, explained · The questionable tag and who benefits
The same boards answer inside Claude, ChatGPT and Cursor: the NBA desk inside AI apps.
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Past 7 Oracles NBA Reports

Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets. Market information, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

7 Oracles NBA Report — frequently asked

What is Today's 7 Oracles NBA Report?

A daily read of the NBA slate on prediction markets: where the money is on Kalshi, where Kalshi and the other venues disagree on the same game or player line, game-by-game notes and a short DFS minutes read. It is market information — what the venues are pricing — so you can make your own call.

When does the report update?

Every game day at about 1:30 PM ET, right after the league's official 1 PM injury report, so the prices it quotes already reflect who is in and who is out. This page always shows the newest report; each day also keeps its own dated page in the archive.

Where do the prices come from?

Kalshi prices sit beside the same lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX — the same data as our NBA Prop Price Board and game-lines table. Every price carries a time stamp. Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets.

Is the report a pick?

No. It reports what the markets are pricing and where they disagree. The DFS notes are minutes reads from the injury report, not projections. The call is yours; trade responsibly.

Where are past reports?

Each day’s report has its own page at /nba/report/<date> — the archive list sits at the bottom of this page.