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7 ORACLES NBA REPORT · SAT, OCT 31

7 Oracles NBA Report — Saturday, Oct 31

$978K on a PHI-CHA Coin Flip, $718K Chasing Two Long Shots, Wemby 50¢ for 25

The 7 Oracles desk · Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:15 PM ET; updated

Quick Answer

Seven NBA games Saturday: Kalshi has $978K on a 50/50 Sixers-Hornets game with Embiid and LeBron out, $718K on two long shots, and Wembanyama at 50¢ for 25 points.

7 games · prices as of 1:15 PM ET · the boards update live

Seven games. Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:15 PM ET; the live boards are the NBA game board and the Prop Price Board. Every number is market, not model.

Last night Giannis went 31-18-10 as Miami hung 145 on Indiana; Philly beat the Knicks 98-93, Minnesota beat the Clippers 127-101, Dallas held off Houston 116-111 and Washington handled Charlotte 95-79, so PHI, CHA, HOU and MIN are all on a back-to-back. Tonight: Embiid and LeBron both out in a 50/50 game, Anthony Edwards out in San Antonio, Holmgren and Jalen Williams out in Houston.

Where the money is

  • PHI @ CHA is the pool: $527K on Charlotte at 48.5¢, $451K on Philly at 50.5¢ — nearly $1M on a coin flip with Embiid and LeBron on the shelf.
  • Long-shot piles: $401K on Sacramento at 24.5¢ (Memphis side $67K) and $318K on Minnesota at 18.5¢ with Edwards out (Spurs side $48K).
  • Favorites: Cleveland at 76.5¢ holds $190K; OKC at 41.5¢ holds $157K against $75K on Houston. The full game board, Kalshi beside every book → NBA game board.
  • Most-traded props: Gilgeous-Alexander 6+ ast ($4.6K, 51¢ ask), Jared McCain 25+ pts ($3.8K, 12¢), Ajay Mitchell 20+ pts ($3.7K, 48¢), Darryn Peterson 4+ ast ($3.5K, 34¢) and 25+ pts ($3.3K, 10¢). The Thunder role players are where the crowd went. Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The disagreements worth knowing

  1. PHI -2.5 — Kalshi 43.5¢ mid, 45.7¢ fee included; the best book has it at -106, which is 51.5¢ (probability converter). A 5.8¢ gap, the widest on the game board: Kalshi's crowd leans Hornets on the number, the books don't.
  2. Brandon Miller 25+ pts — 56¢ ask, Kalshi cheapest at 57.7¢ fee included; the books sit near -190 (64¢). A 7.3¢ gap with Knueppel, Coby White and Grant Williams all out for Charlotte. The book quotes on this game are from this morning, so part of the gap is the books moving first. Here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report.
  3. The LeBron trap — the board still shows LeBron 20+ pts at 40¢ ask, a 10.7¢ "gap" to the books. He is OUT on the 1:15 report (back/sciatica management). That is a stale quote, not value.
  4. MIN @ SAS Over 226.5 — Kalshi 45.5¢ mid, 47.7¢ fee included vs 50.7¢ at the best book, Kalshi cheaper by 4¢. The Under is the mirror: 54.5¢ on Kalshi vs 50¢ on Novig.
  5. HOU -2.5 — Kalshi 52.5¢ mid, 54.7¢ fee included vs 49.5¢ on Novig; the Kalshi crowd likes Houston on a back-to-back more than the exchanges do. OKC +2.5 is Kalshi-cheapest at 49.8¢ fee included.

Game by game (Kalshi mid · tip ET)

Prop strikes are the Kalshi YES ask before the taker fee unless marked "fee included".

  • POR @ UTA · 3:00 PM — POR 73.5¢ / UTA 26.5¢; POR -8.5 (49.5¢); total 231.5 (Over 52.5¢)
  • Story: the day's first tip, and the one with a live fork.
  • Out / Questionable: Sharpe and Ja Morant out for Portland, Robert Williams III questionable; Jaren Jackson Jr. and Nurkic out for Utah; Markkanen questionable (wrist) is the fork. Here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report.
  • Who benefits: without Markkanen (69 games), Brice Sensabaugh +7.6 pts and +7.5 min, Ace Bailey +7.3 pts and +6.0 min, Kyle Filipowski +5.7 pts, +2.8 reb and +7.1 min. Without Sharpe (41 games), Donovan Clingan +3.4 pts; Jrue Holiday +3.0 pts (28 games). Ja Morant is new to Portland, so the splits tool has no history for his absence yet.
  • Props: Lillard 25+ pts 41¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 42.7¢ fee included), 30+ 22¢; Avdija 25+ pts 49¢, 8+ ast 40¢; Peterson 15+ pts 54¢, 2+ 3PM 39¢ against even money at the books; Ace Bailey 15+ pts 53¢.
  • PHI @ CHA · 6:00 PM — PHI 50.5¢ / CHA 48.5¢; PHI -1.5 (48.5¢); total 215.5 (Under 52.5¢)
  • Story: nearly $1M on a coin flip, both teams on a back-to-back, both missing their best players.
  • Out / Questionable: Embiid and LeBron out for Philly; Jaylen Brown, Jabari Walker and Tacko Fall questionable. Knueppel, Coby White and Grant Williams out for Charlotte.
  • Who benefits: without Embiid (91–94 games), Justin Edwards +4.9 pts and +10.5 min, Adem Bona +4.3 pts, +2.5 reb and +8.7 min, Jabari Walker +3.2 pts (39 games, and he's questionable himself). LeBron is new to Philly, so the splits tool has no with/without history for him — the Embiid-out names are the ones with data. Without Knueppel the sample is one game: Brandon Miller +11.0 pts, Moussa Diabaté +6.2 pts, so read those as a direction, not a number.
  • Props: Miller 25+ pts 56¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 57.7¢ fee included), 30+ 35¢; Diabaté 12+ reb 33¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 34.6¢ fee included), 10+ reb 56¢; Naz Reid 20+ pts 39¢; Schröder 6+ ast 55¢.
  • ATL @ NOP · 7:00 PM — ATL 61.5¢ / NOP 38.5¢; ATL -4.5 (49.5¢); total 241.5 (Over 47.5¢)
  • Story: the highest total on the board with a tight spread — the DFS target game.
  • Out: Poole and Missi for New Orleans; Gueye and Veesaar for Atlanta. No star on the splits list.
  • Props: Jalen Johnson 10+ reb 50¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 51.8¢ fee included, 6.6¢ under the books), 8+ ast 55¢ (5.1¢ under), 25+ pts 40¢; Alexander-Walker 20+ pts 51¢; Dejounte Murray 20+ pts 37¢; Jeremiah Fears 4+ ast 44¢.
  • CLE @ MIL · 8:00 PM — CLE 76.5¢ / MIL 22.5¢; CLE -9.5 (50.5¢); total 236.5 (Over 47.5¢, $55K traded)
  • Story: the quiet one — neither team has a name on the 1:15 report. Ladders on the Prop Price Board.
  • MIN @ SAS · 8:00 PM — MIN 18.5¢ / SAS 82.5¢; SAS -12.5 (49.5¢); total 226.5 (Over 45.5¢)
  • Story: $318K on the Wolves at 18.5¢ with their best player out, on a back-to-back.
  • Out: Anthony Edwards (knee surgery).
  • Who benefits: without Edwards (19–21 games), Jaden McDaniels +7.0 pts and +4.7% usage, Bones Hyland +6.3 pts and +10.3 min, Terrence Shannon Jr. +4.0 pts and +8.7 min.
  • Props: Wembanyama 25+ pts 50¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 51.8¢ fee included), 30+ 31¢, 35+ 14¢; 12+ reb 46¢; 4+ ast 33¢, where a book is cheaper at +230.
  • SAC @ MEM · 8:00 PM — SAC 24.5¢ / MEM 75.5¢; MEM -8.5 (51¢); total 230.5 (Over 50.5¢)
  • Story: the other long-shot pile, $401K on the Kings at 24.5¢.
  • Out / Questionable: Keegan Murray, Raynaud and Cardwell out for Sacramento; Ty Jerome questionable for Memphis.
  • Who benefits: without Jerome (52–59 games), Cedric Coward +3.6 pts and +2.8 min, Cam Spencer +2.0 pts and +1.4 ast; Scotty Pippen Jr. +6.3% usage on a 4-game sample.
  • OKC @ HOU · 8:30 PM — OKC 41.5¢ / HOU 57.5¢; HOU -2.5 (52.5¢); total 218.5 (Over 51.5¢)
  • Story: the Thunder without two starters against a Rockets team that played last night.
  • Out: Holmgren and Jalen Williams for OKC.
  • Who benefits: without Holmgren (41–60 games), Gilgeous-Alexander +3.1 pts, Jaylin Williams +2.3 pts and +2.0 reb, Kenrich Williams +4.6 min. Without Jalen Williams (21–44 games), Jared McCain +6.5 pts and +5.2 min, Ajay Mitchell +5.8 pts, +6.3 min and +6.1% usage.
  • Props: SGA 25+ pts 73¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 74.4¢ fee included), 30+ 50¢ (51.8¢ fee included, 4.8¢ under the books), 35+ 30¢, 6+ ast 51¢; Hartenstein 10+ reb 51¢ (52.8¢ fee included, 5.6¢ under the books); Durant 4+ ast NO 55¢, 5.5¢ under the books; McCain 20+ pts 26¢, 15+ 51¢; Mitchell 20+ pts 48¢; Sengun 20+ pts 46¢, 6+ ast 49¢.

Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The DFS sprinkle

  • Minutes first. Projection is per-minute production times minutes: Justin Edwards (+10.5 min) and Adem Bona (+8.7) with Embiid out; Bones Hyland (+10.3) and Shannon Jr. (+8.7) with Edwards out; Ajay Mitchell (+6.3) and McCain (+5.2) with Jalen Williams out; Sensabaugh (+7.5) and Filipowski (+7.1) if Markkanen sits.
  • Salaries lag roles. DraftKings salaries lag role changes by days: McCain and Mitchell, Brandon Miller carrying Charlotte, Naz Reid in a Hornets jersey. No page we trust showed today's salaries, so check them at build time.
  • Lines before players. ATL @ NOP (241.5, -4.5) is the target game; MIN @ SAS (-12.5) and CLE @ MIL (-9.5) carry blowout risk for the favorites' starters, but the Wolves and Bucks still score.
  • Chalk and leverage. Eat value chalk on near-minimum players with 30-minute roles (the beneficiaries above), then find leverage in the stud tier: Wemby and SGA will draw the ownership; Jalen Johnson at a 241.5 total is the pivot.
  • Build to swap. Lillard, Avdija and Peterson tip at 3:00 PM and sit in fixed slots; the 8:00 and 8:30 names go in G/F/UTIL. Late decisions: Markkanen (3:00), Jaylen Brown (6:00), Ty Jerome (8:00). Here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report.
  • Back-to-backs. PHI, CHA, HOU and MIN all played last night; veteran rest hits the 5 PM report. The slate closes at the 3:00 PM ET tip — if you can't be at the computer then and through the 8:30 window, play a smaller slate.
  • First month. Roles are unknown and ownership is thin, so be different. The player prices behind the salaries are on the Prop Price Board; size entries with Kelly.

Housekeeping

More from the 7 Oracles NBA desk

Sources (1)

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Past 7 Oracles NBA Reports

Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets. Market information, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

7 Oracles NBA Report — frequently asked

What is Today's 7 Oracles NBA Report?

A daily read of the NBA slate on prediction markets: where the money is on Kalshi, where Kalshi and the other venues disagree on the same game or player line, game-by-game notes and a short DFS minutes read. It is market information — what the venues are pricing — so you can make your own call.

When does the report update?

Every game day at about 1:30 PM ET, right after the league's official 1 PM injury report, so the prices it quotes already reflect who is in and who is out. This page always shows the newest report; each day also keeps its own dated page in the archive.

Where do the prices come from?

Kalshi prices sit beside the same lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX — the same data as our NBA Prop Price Board and game-lines table. Every price carries a time stamp. Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets.

Is the report a pick?

No. It reports what the markets are pricing and where they disagree. The DFS notes are minutes reads from the injury report, not projections. The call is yours; trade responsibly.

Where are past reports?

Each day’s report has its own page at /nba/report/<date> — the archive list sits at the bottom of this page.