7 ORACLES NBA REPORT · FRI, OCT 30

7 Oracles NBA Report — Friday, Oct 30

$305K Rides the Nets at 26.5¢, a 10.6¢ Edgecombe Rebound Gap, and Giannis on Miami's Board

Biggest Kalshi pool
$305K
Nets ML vs DET, 26.5¢
Widest gap vs the books
10.6¢
Edgecombe 6+ reb YES, Kalshi
Tonight
10 games
first tip 7:00 PM ET

The 7 Oracles desk · Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:15 PM ET; updated 1:44 PM ET

Quick Answer

Ten games tonight: $305K on the Nets at 26.5¢, Edgecombe's 10.6¢ rebound gap, Pacers +7.5 cheapest on Kalshi, Giannis on Miami's ladder — Kalshi mids as of 1:15 PM ET, market not model.

10 games · prices as of 1:15 PM ET · the boards update live

Ten games tonight. Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:15 PM ET; the live boards are the NBA game board and the Prop Price Board. Every number is market, not model.

Last night: Hawks 114, Cavaliers 111; Grizzlies 124, Blazers 103; Pelicans 132, Kings 120. None of those six play tonight, so nobody is on a back-to-back. Tonight: two dogs the Kalshi crowd is piling into, a Hornets-Wizards coin flip at 7, Giannis Antetokounmpo on Miami's ladder against a Haliburton-less Indiana, and Luka at Golden State at 10.

Where the money is

The two biggest Kalshi pools are on the Nets game: Brooklyn's moneyline carries $305,304 at 26.5¢ against $132,127 on Detroit at 72.5¢, and the 222.5 total has $229,563 traded at 50.5¢ over. Jalen Duren is out for Detroit, part of why the dog side has the money. Washington's moneyline holds $301,545 at 50.5¢ against $139,656 on Charlotte; Toronto -5.5 is the biggest spread pool, $301,810 at 50.5¢; Chicago's 12.5¢ moneyline has $240,572 against $64,687 on Boston; Dallas at 32.5¢ has $101,851 to Houston's $48,185. The full game board, Kalshi beside every book → NBA game board.

On props, Luka Dončić 35+ points is the most-traded strike we saw, $9,041 (50¢ ask), then AJ Dybantsa 15+ points at $5,520 (56¢), Draymond Green 6+ assists at $4,201 (58¢) and Nikola Jokić 10+ assists at $3,436 (53¢). Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The disagreements worth knowing

VJ Edgecombe 6+ rebounds (NYK @ PHI) — the widest prop gap on the board. Kalshi asks 46¢ YES (47.7¢ fee included, Kalshi cheapest) while the books sit around -145, roughly 59¢ on the probability converter — a 10.6¢ disagreement. Philadelphia is thin up front (Jabari Walker, Tacko Fall, Dominick Barlow out) — here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report.
Scottie Barnes 6+ assists (ORL @ TOR) — Kalshi asks 58¢ YES, 43¢ NO; the books sit near -110/-120 both ways (52¢ to 54¢). Kalshi's NO is the cheapest under anywhere at 44.7¢ fee included, 9.2¢ under the best book.
Pacers +7.5 (IND @ MIA) — Kalshi is cheaper than every book on the dog side: 45.5¢ mid, 47.7¢ fee included, against FanDuel -104 (51¢) — a 3.3¢ edge. Tyrese Haliburton is out and Andrew Nembhard is a game-time call: a fork. The mirror image is Charlotte +1.5: Kalshi's 56.7¢ fee included is 3.9¢ pricier than ProphetX at 52.6¢, so Washington -1.5 (47.7¢ fee included) is where Kalshi is cheapest.
Crowd against the line — Brooklyn's $305K at 26.5¢ and Chicago's $240K at 12.5¢ are dog pools that dwarf the favorite side while the mids sit within 2.5¢ of the books — positioning, not mispricing, but where late money moves.

Cross-venue, the scan found no Kalshi-vs-Polymarket NBA gap of 3pp or more tonight: Arb Scanner, Kalshi vs Polymarket on NBA. Sizing: EV calculator, Kelly, Kalshi fee calculator.

Game by game (Kalshi mid · tip ET)

Prop strikes are the Kalshi YES ask before the taker fee unless marked "fee included".

CHA @ WAS · 7:00 PM — Hornets 49.5¢ / Wizards 50.5¢; WAS -1.5 at 45.5¢; total 219.5. Kon Knueppel, Coby White and Grant Williams out for Charlotte; Dennis Schröder and Tre Johnson game-time calls — who benefits. Anthony Davis 25+ pts 31¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 32.5¢ fee included), 10+ reb 52¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 53.8¢ fee included); AJ Dybantsa 15+ pts 56¢; Brandon Miller 35+ pts 18¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 19¢ fee included). Prop Price Board.
CHI @ BOS · 7:30 PM — Bulls 12.5¢ / Celtics 87.5¢; BOS -14.5 at 52.5¢; total 234.5, second-highest. Nic Claxton out for Chicago.
DET @ BKN · 7:30 PM — Pistons 72.5¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 74.4¢ fee included) / Nets 26.5¢; DET -8.5 at 49¢; total 222.5. Duren out; in 16 games without him Paul Reed averaged +17.3 minutes and +9.3 points — the fork.
NYK @ PHI · 7:30 PM — Knicks 53.5¢ / Sixers 47.5¢; NYK -1.5 at 52.5¢; total 226.5. Edgecombe 6+ reb (46¢) is the disagreement above.
ORL @ TOR · 7:30 PM — Magic 33.5¢ / Raptors 65.5¢; TOR -5.5 at 50.5¢ ($301K traded); total 226.5. Suggs and Banchero out; Goga Bitadze averaged +12.0 minutes in 42 games without Banchero — who benefits. Barnes 25+ pts 36¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 37.6¢ fee included), 30+ 16¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 16.9¢ fee included).
HOU @ DAL · 8:00 PM — Rockets 68.5¢ / Mavericks 32.5¢; HOU -6.5 at 50.5¢; total 225.5, over at 47.5¢ Kalshi cheapest (49.8¢ fee included). Alperen Sengun (back) and Naji Marshall (illness) are forks; Clint Capela averaged +8.0 minutes in 10 games without Sengun — the fork.
IND @ MIA · 8:00 PM — Pacers 27.5¢ / Heat 73.5¢; MIA -7.5 at 54.5¢, IND +7.5 at 45.5¢ (Kalshi cheapest); total 237.5, highest on the board. Haliburton out, Nembhard a game-time call; Quenton Jackson averaged +10.8 minutes in 38 games without Nembhard — who benefits. Giannis 4+ ast 84¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 84.9¢ fee included); Kalshi is cheapest on his 40+ pts YES by 4.7¢. Bam Adebayo 20+ pts 44¢. Nembhard, if he goes, 8+ ast 64¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 65.6¢ fee included).
LAC @ MIN · 8:00 PM — Clippers 29.5¢ / Timberwolves 70.5¢; MIN -6.5 at 52¢; total 222.5. Quietest pool tonight, under $20K a side; no listed absences at 1:15 PM.
DEN @ PHX · 10:00 PM — Nuggets 62.5¢ / Suns 37.5¢; DEN -4.5 at 49.5¢; total 231.5 ($91,929 traded). Jokić 25+ pts 54¢, 12+ reb 57¢, 10+ ast 53¢ — where Kalshi's YES is 6¢ over Novig but its NO (52.8¢ fee included) is the cheapest under anywhere.
LAL @ GSW · 10:00 PM — Lakers 57.5¢ / Warriors 42.5¢; LAL -3.5 at 48.5¢; total 233.5, under at 49¢ Kalshi cheapest (51.8¢ fee included). Luka 30+ pts 71¢, 35+ 50¢ ($9,041 traded), 40+ 33¢; 8+ ast 53¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 54.7¢ fee included). Draymond 6+ ast 58¢. Kalshi is cheapest on Stephen Curry 15+ pts YES by 3.9¢.

Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The DFS sprinkle

Minutes first. Projection is per-minute production times minutes, and minutes are moving in three places: Detroit without Duren (Reed's +17.3 minutes is the cleanest role bump on the slate), Orlando without Suggs and Banchero (Bitadze +12.0), Indiana without Haliburton (Quenton Jackson, Jarace Walker). DraftKings salaries lag role changes by days — we could not verify tonight's from a dated page — so check them against the player prices on the Prop Price Board before paying for a role.
Lines before players. IND @ MIA is the highest total (237.5) but the spread is 7.5 — blowout risk for Heat starters, while the Pacers' fill-ins still get their minutes. CHA @ WAS (219.5, -1.5) and NYK @ PHI (226.5, -1.5) are the tight games where starters play 36. Boston -14.5 is the big spread: fade the Celtics' top end in cash; Chicago's rotation still scores.
Value chalk and stud leverage. Reed and Bitadze are the near-minimum 30-minute roles everyone sees. Up top, ownership stacks on Luka (35+ pts at 50¢) and Jokić; Giannis in a 237.5 total is the leverage.
Build to swap. Lock is the first tip, 7:00 PM ET: fixed slots for the 7 and 7:30 games, G/F/UTIL for the 10 PM pair. Late decisions: Schröder (CHA), Tre Johnson (WAS), Nembhard (IND), Sengun (HOU), Marshall (DAL), Isaiah Joe (DET), Clowney (BKN) — who benefits is the swap sheet.
Rest. Nobody on this slate played last night; veteran rest still lands late, so refresh before 7.
It's October. Roles are unknown and ownership is thin: the time to be different. Can't be at the computer at lock and through the 10 PM window? Play the early slate. Size it with Kelly and the EV calculator.

Housekeeping

The official NBA injury report refreshes at 1 PM and 5 PM ET; statuses above are as of 1:15 PM ET, and the injury page shows who benefits as each fork rules. Tomorrow's board lists OKC @ HOU (Rockets 55¢), MIN @ SAS (Spurs 80¢) and PHI @ CHA (Sixers 51.5¢). Settlement: How Kalshi NBA contracts settle. Explainers: NBA prediction markets, explained and The questionable tag and who benefits. The same boards answer inside Claude, ChatGPT and Cursor — the NBA desk inside AI apps.

Trade responsibly. The market is pricing all of this; you don't have to agree with it.

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Talk it through with the desk in the 7 Oracles Discord.

Past 7 Oracles NBA Reports

Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets. Market information, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

7 Oracles NBA Report — frequently asked

What is Today's 7 Oracles NBA Report?

A daily read of the NBA slate on prediction markets: where the money is on Kalshi, where Kalshi and the other venues disagree on the same game or player line, game-by-game notes and a short DFS minutes read. It is market information — what the venues are pricing — so you can make your own call.

When does the report update?

Every game day at about 1:30 PM ET, right after the league's official 1 PM injury report, so the prices it quotes already reflect who is in and who is out. This page always shows the newest report; each day also keeps its own dated page in the archive.

Where do the prices come from?

Kalshi prices sit beside the same lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX — the same data as our NBA Prop Price Board and game-lines table. Every price carries a time stamp. Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets.

Is the report a pick?

No. It reports what the markets are pricing and where they disagree. The DFS notes are minutes reads from the injury report, not projections. The call is yours; trade responsibly.

Where are past reports?

Each day’s report has its own page at /nba/report/<date> — the archive list sits at the bottom of this page.