7 ORACLES NBA REPORT · THU, NOV 5

7 Oracles NBA Report — Thursday, Nov 5

$337K on the Warriors at 70.5¢, Giannis 12+ Rebounds Priced 10.8¢ Apart, and a 49/51 Coin Flip in Phoenix

Biggest Kalshi pool
$337K
GSW ML vs MIA, 70.5¢
Widest gap vs the books
10.8¢
Giannis 12+ reb YES, Kalshi
Tonight
2 games
first tip 9:00 PM ET

The 7 Oracles desk · Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:30 PM ET; updated 1:43 PM ET

Quick Answer

Two games: $337K on the Warriors at 70.5¢, a 49/51 coin flip in Phoenix with Banchero and Suggs out, and Giannis 12+ rebounds priced 10.8¢ apart, Kalshi against the books.

2 games · prices as of 1:30 PM ET · the boards update live

Two games tonight. Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:30 PM ET; the live boards are the NBA game board and the Prop Price Board. Every number is market, not model.

Fourteen games last night: the Heat erased a 20-point hole to take the Clippers 117-116 in overtime on a Klay Thompson game-winner, and the Suns lost 132-119 at home to Portland, so both Miami and Phoenix play tonight on a back-to-back while Orlando and Golden State are rested. Two games on the board: a 49/51 coin flip in Phoenix with Orlando missing Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs, and Giannis Antetokounmpo's Heat (3-5) at Stephen Curry's Warriors (5-3) with Jimmy Butler and Kristaps Porzingis out.

Where the money is

Warriors moneyline, $337K. The night's biggest Kalshi pool, Golden State at 70.5¢ (72.4¢ fee included); the Miami side holds $259K at 29.5¢. Nearly $600K on one game, 57% of it on the favorite. The full game board, Kalshi beside every book → NBA game board.
Suns vs Magic, a true split. $110K on Phoenix at 50.5¢ and $100K on Orlando at 49.5¢. The crowd is not leaning; it is arguing.
The side markets are thin. Golden State -7.5 has $34K at 48.5¢; the 234.5 total only $12K (over 47.5¢). Phoenix total 222.5 holds $22K (over 51.5¢), Suns -1.5 $18K (48.5¢).
Most-traded props: Curry, Curry, Booker, Curry. Stephen Curry 30+ points has $5,659 in volume at a 43¢ ask; Curry 5+ threes $4,308 at 46¢; Devin Booker 25+ points $3,502 at 57¢; Curry 20+ points $2,750 at 85¢; Giannis 12+ rebounds $2,577 at 41¢. Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The disagreements worth knowing

Giannis 12+ rebounds: 10.8¢ apart. Kalshi asks 41¢ for YES (42.7¢ fee included); the cheapest book is 52.6¢, with the books clustered from -115 to -128 and one at -148. The widest Kalshi-vs-books gap on the board, and it runs the other way on NO: Kalshi asks 60¢ to fade 12 boards while Novig sells it at 50¢. The Kalshi crowd thinks Giannis stays under 12 on a back-to-back; the books disagree by a dime. American prices to cents: the probability converter.
Booker's ladder is cheaper at the books. Booker 25+ points: Kalshi 57¢ ask against 52.4¢ at the best book (-110), 6.3¢ on YES; the NO side flips, Kalshi 44¢ ask (45.7¢ fee included) against 49.8¢ elsewhere. Booker 6+ assists is 43¢ on Kalshi and 36.8¢ at FanDuel (+172); 30+ points 34¢ against 30.3¢ (+230). The Kalshi crowd is paying up for Booker on a back-to-back after a home loss.
Curry's three-point ladder, same pattern. Curry 5+ threes is 46¢ on Kalshi and 41.7¢ at FanDuel (+140), 6.1¢ apart; 6+ threes 29¢ vs 26¢ (+285); 20+ points 85¢ vs 82¢ at the best book. Kalshi is pricier on every Curry YES strike with real volume and cheapest only on the NO sides (30+ points NO, 59.7¢ fee included).
Bane 3+ threes NO: Kalshi 7.2¢ cheaper. Kalshi asks 36¢ to fade three triples (37.6¢ fee included); the only book quoting the NO is at +123 (44.8¢). Oso Ighodaro 2+ assists NO is the other one the board flags: Kalshi 10.1¢ under the best book.

Arbitrage scan. No Kalshi-vs-Polymarket US gap of 3pp or more on tonight's games; every side is within 1¢ after fees. The one gap on the board is Lakers-Pistons on Nov 8 (Kalshi 58%, Polymarket US 51%, 7.5pp, an illiquid Kalshi market with an 8¢ spread). Live on the Arb Scanner and Kalshi vs Polymarket on NBA.

Game by game (Kalshi mid · tip ET)

Prop strikes are the Kalshi YES ask before the taker fee unless marked "fee included"; every ladder lives on the Prop Price Board.

ORL @ PHX · 9:00 PM — ORL 49.5¢ / PHX 50.5¢; PHX -1.5 (48.5¢); total 222.5 (over 51.5¢)

Story: A coin flip at every venue: DraftKings has Orlando -104 and Phoenix -114, Novig has Orlando at 49.5¢ against Kalshi's 51.8¢ fee included. Phoenix lost by 13 at home to Portland last night and ranks last in defensive rating (124.5).
Out (ORL): Paolo Banchero (right high ankle sprain), Jalen Suggs (right knee contusion/bone bruise), Jonathan Isaac, Izaiyah Nelson, Noah Penda. Out (PHX): Mark Williams (shoulder surgery). Game-time decisions (PHX): Jordan Goodwin (left calf), Rasheer Fleming (left ankle sprain). Here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report + Who Benefits.
Who benefits, Banchero out (46 games): Goga Bitadze +12.0 min, +5.6 pts, +4.2 reb (42 games, moves into the lineup); Franz Wagner +3.2 min, +3.5 pts, +1.8 ast (30 games); Desmond Bane +2.1 min, +3.4 pts (10 games); Tristan da Silva +6.5 min, +2.2 pts (46 games). Kalshi lists no strike for Bitadze tonight.
Who benefits, Suggs out (70 games): Jase Richardson +8.0 min, +4.3 pts (25 games, mostly with Franz also out); Anthony Black +0.9 min, +1.4 pts (70 games); Wendell Carter Jr. +1.2 pts, +3.0% usage (68 games). Richardson 10+ points is a 43¢ mid on Kalshi; Black 15+ points asks 54¢ with $1,722 traded.
Props, Franz ladder: 15+ pts 87¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 87.8¢ fee included) · 20+ 67¢ · 25+ 42¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 43.7¢ fee included) · 30+ 20¢. Assists: 6+ 67¢ · 8+ 38¢ · 10+ 19¢. Rebounds: 6+ 59¢ · 8+ 28¢.
Props, Bane: 20+ pts 59¢ (Novig cheaper at 55.9¢) · 25+ 29¢ · 4+ threes 41¢ · 3+ threes NO 36¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 37.6¢ fee included).
Props, Booker: 20+ pts 79¢ · 25+ 57¢ · 30+ 34¢ · 35+ 16¢; 6+ ast 43¢; 2+ threes 53¢. Dillon Brooks 15+ pts 60¢.

MIA @ GSW · 10:00 PM — MIA 29.5¢ / GSW 70.5¢; GSW -7.5 (48.5¢); total 234.5 (over 47.5¢)

Story: Giannis in a Heat jersey against Curry, on NBA TV. Miami is on the second night of a back-to-back after overtime in Los Angeles; Golden State has not played in two days and Curry hung 34 on Phoenix last time out. Rookie Yaxel Lendeborg averages 21.5 points through eight games with Butler and Porzingis gone. Golden State is 72.4¢ fee included on Kalshi, 71.0¢ at Novig (-245), -279 to -295 at the books. The over 234.5 is 47.5¢ on Kalshi, 51.5¢ at FanDuel (-106), 48.8¢ at ProphetX.
Out (GSW): Jimmy Butler (ACL surgery), Kristaps Porzingis (not with team), Gui Santos (left knee tendinitis), Moses Moody (patellar tendon surgery). MIA: nobody listed on the official report; Giannis was probable with wrist pain last night and played. Here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report + Who Benefits.
Who benefits, Butler out (45 games): De'Anthony Melton +3.3 min, +3.4 pts, +4.7% usage (33 games, mostly with Curry also out); Gary Payton II +3.9 min, +3.1 pts (41 games); Al Horford +4.5 min, +2.4 pts (24 games).
Who benefits, Porzingis out (14 games): Melton again, +6.5 pts and +7.6% usage on flat minutes (11 games); Horford +4.7 min, +7.0 pts (7 games, small sample); Will Richard +2.5 min, +2.3 pts (8 games). Melton 10+ points is a 54¢ mid on Kalshi (cheapest venue, 56.7¢ fee included); Melton 2+ assists a 65.5¢ mid.
Props, Curry ladder: 20+ pts 85¢ · 25+ 65¢ · 30+ 43¢ (ProphetX cheaper at 40¢) · 35+ 24¢. Threes: 3+ 83¢ · 4+ 62¢ · 5+ 46¢ · 6+ 29¢ · 7+ 16¢. Assists: 6+ 38¢.
Props, Giannis ladder: 20+ pts 86¢ · 25+ 70¢ · 30+ 45¢ · 35+ 25¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 26.3¢ fee included) · 40+ 14¢. Rebounds: 8+ 83¢ · 10+ 69¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 70.5¢ fee included) · 12+ 41¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 42.7¢ fee included, 10.8¢ under the books) · 14+ 27¢ · 16+ 14¢. Assists: 6+ 56¢ · 8+ 29¢.
Props, Bam Adebayo: 15+ pts 80¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 81.1¢ fee included, 4.6¢ under the books) · 20+ 55¢ · 25+ 32¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 33.5¢ fee included); 10+ reb 51¢.

Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The DFS sprinkle

Lock is 9:00 PM ET, a two-game main slate. Phoenix players lock at 9, so they go in fixed slots; leave G/F/UTIL for the 10 PM names you may need to swap.
Projection is per-minute production times minutes, so start with the minutes. Orlando without Banchero and Suggs: Bitadze +12.0 min (42 games), Jase Richardson +8.0 min (25 games), da Silva +6.5 min (46 games), Franz +3.2 min (30 games). Golden State without Butler and Porzingis: Horford +4.5 min, Payton +3.9 min, Melton +3.3 min and +7.6% usage. Giannis is not on the injury report; Kalshi prices his 30+ at 45¢.
Salaries lag roles by days. DraftKings has Curry at $8,200 (30 PPG, 69/52/55 FPTS in his last three) against a Miami defense ranked 26th; Anthony Black at $6,000 with Banchero and Suggs out (42.5 and 39.5 FPTS in his last two); Oso Ighodaro at $4,500 with Mark Williams out (33.75 FPTS in 23 minutes last night) while rookie Khaman Maluach still starts. That is the value chalk; Bitadze (no Kalshi strike, 24.7 min a game when Banchero sits) is the one the salary page skipped.
Check the lines before the players. Phoenix-Orlando is 49.5/50.5 with a 222.5 total: tight spread, everyone plays the whole game. Miami-Golden State is 70.5/29.5, a 7.5-point spread and the high total of 234.5: blowout risk for Curry's fourth quarter, but Miami's starters still score → NBA game board.
Leverage in the stud tier. Two-game ownership piles onto Curry and Giannis. Booker (Kalshi 57¢ on 25+, books 4-5¢ lower) and Franz (42¢ on 25+ with Banchero's usage open) are the pivots; the market price behind every salary → Prop Price Board.
Late decisions: Jordan Goodwin (calf) and Rasheer Fleming (ankle) are game-time calls for Phoenix, and Miami's 5 PM report could still add a name after overtime. Keep swap room → NBA Injury Report + Who Benefits.
Back-to-backs: Phoenix (lost 132-119 to Portland) and Miami (117-116 OT win at the Clippers) both played last night; Orlando and Golden State did not. Veteran rest shows up on the 5 PM report, not the 1 PM one.
It is the first month. Lendeborg has eight NBA games, Bitadze's role changed this week, ownership is thin: the time to be different. Can't be at the computer through the 10 PM tip? Play it small. Size with Kelly and the EV calculator, and net out the taker fee with the Kalshi fee calculator.

Housekeeping

The official NBA injury report refreshes at 1 PM and 5 PM ET; the injury page shows who benefits with the with/without splits.
Tomorrow's board (Kalshi mids): Spurs at Kings, SAS 87¢; Thunder at Grizzlies, OKC 63.5¢; 76ers at Cavaliers, PHI 63.5¢ with $58K already traded.
How Kalshi NBA contracts settle, including the 48-hour postponement rule → How it settles: KXNBA.
New to this: NBA prediction markets, explained and The questionable tag and who benefits.
The same boards answer inside Claude, ChatGPT and Cursor: the NBA desk inside AI apps.
Trade responsibly. The market is pricing all of this; you don't have to agree with it.

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Past 7 Oracles NBA Reports

Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets. Market information, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

7 Oracles NBA Report — frequently asked

What is Today's 7 Oracles NBA Report?

A daily read of the NBA slate on prediction markets: where the money is on Kalshi, where Kalshi and the other venues disagree on the same game or player line, game-by-game notes and a short DFS minutes read. It is market information — what the venues are pricing — so you can make your own call.

When does the report update?

Every game day at about 1:30 PM ET, right after the league's official 1 PM injury report, so the prices it quotes already reflect who is in and who is out. This page always shows the newest report; each day also keeps its own dated page in the archive.

Where do the prices come from?

Kalshi prices sit beside the same lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX — the same data as our NBA Prop Price Board and game-lines table. Every price carries a time stamp. Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets.

Is the report a pick?

No. It reports what the markets are pricing and where they disagree. The DFS notes are minutes reads from the injury report, not projections. The call is yours; trade responsibly.

Where are past reports?

Each day’s report has its own page at /nba/report/<date> — the archive list sits at the bottom of this page.