7 ORACLES NBA REPORT · MON, OCT 26

7 Oracles NBA Report — Monday, Oct 26

$1.3M on Two Dogs, an Ant Fork at CLE, and Giannis's Heat Priced 70.5¢

Biggest Kalshi pool
$993K
Wolves ML at CLE, 36.5¢
Widest gap vs the books
11.2¢
PJ Washington 8+ reb, Kalshi
Tonight
9 games
first tip 7:00 PM ET

The 7 Oracles desk · Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:15 PM ET; updated 1:45 PM ET

Quick Answer

Nine NBA games on Kalshi: $1.3M on two road dogs, Anthony Edwards a fork in Cleveland, Giannis's 0-3 Heat at 70.5¢, and the widest prop gaps vs the books.

9 games · prices as of 1:15 PM ET · the boards update live

Nine games tonight. Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:15 PM ET; the live boards are the NBA game board and the Prop Price Board. Every number is market, not model.

Last night: Lakers 132-123 Utah, Indiana 136-109 Brooklyn, OKC 108-101 Clippers, Orlando 111-102 Knicks, Minnesota 117-94 Toronto, Detroit 106-93 Philly, Memphis 123-112 Sacramento, so Minnesota, Indiana, OKC, Memphis and Utah are all on a back-to-back tonight. Tonight: Anthony Edwards questionable in Cleveland, Jalen Williams out in OKC with an injury DK Network expects could end his season, and the Heat 0-3 in the Giannis Antetokounmpo era.

Where the money is

The Kalshi crowd is on the road dogs: $992,821 on Minnesota at 36.5¢ against $316,891 on Cleveland at 63.5¢, the night's biggest pool with Edwards still a fork, and $351,763 on Dallas at 29.5¢ versus $24,331 on Miami at 70.5¢. Charlotte is the exception, $342,516 on the Hornets at 57.5¢ to $199,973 on Washington. IND -4.5 is the most-traded spread at $125,774; totals are thin, WAS @ CHA 228.5 leading at $22,556. The full game board, Kalshi beside every book →

On props, Jaden McDaniels 15+ points is the most-traded strike at $7,325, a play on the Edwards fork (+7.0 points in 19 games without Ant). Then Nikola Jokić 10+ assists $6,504, Brandin Podziemski 15+ points $5,925, Klay Thompson 10+ points $3,647, Giannis 6+ assists $3,577. Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder →

The disagreements worth knowing

Dallas at Miami: the crowd leans Mavs and Over. DAL is 29.5¢ mid, 31.5¢ fee included, against +250 to +270 at the books (27.0¢ to 28.6¢), 4.5¢ pricier on Kalshi. So Miami at 72.4¢ fee included is the cheapest Heat price anywhere, 3.8¢ under the books' -320 to -335 (76.2¢ to 77.0¢); likewise Over 239.5 at 54.5¢ makes Under 239.5 at 47.7¢ fee included the cheapest Under around. American odds to cents is one click at the probability converter.
Cleveland -4.5: the crowd pays up with Ant unruled. CLE -4.5 is 53¢ mid, 55.7¢ fee included, against -105 to -110 at the books (51.2¢ to 52.4¢), a 4.5¢ gap, the widest on any game line tonight. MIN +4.5 at 49.8¢ fee included is the cheapest dog price. Here's more on the injury news and the fork →
Golden State at Denver, same shape. GSW moneyline 29.5¢ mid against +260 at the best book (27.8¢), 3.7¢ pricier on Kalshi; GSW +7.5 and Over 235.5 sit 3.3¢ to 3.7¢ above the books too. DEN -7.5 at 49.8¢ fee included is Kalshi's cheapest side.
Two rebound strikes. P.J. Washington 8+ rebounds YES is 36¢ ask, 37.6¢ fee included, against +105 to -112 at the books (48.8¢ to 52.8¢) and +111 at Novig (47.4¢): an 11.2¢ gap, the widest on the prop board. Anthony Davis, in a Wizards uniform, has 10+ rebounds YES at 56¢ ask, 57.7¢ fee included, against -220 to -240 at the books (68.8¢ to 70.6¢), an 11¢ gap.

Cross-venue: no Kalshi-vs-Polymarket NBA gap of 3pp or more across 12 matched markets; the closest is Mavs-Heat at 1.0pp, cheaper on Kalshi. Kalshi vs Polymarket on NBA · Arb Scanner.

Game by game (Kalshi mid · tip ET)

Prop strikes below are the Kalshi YES ask before the taker fee unless marked "fee included".

MIN @ CLE · 7:00 PM — CLE 63.5¢, MIN 36.5¢; CLE -4.5 at 53¢; total 232.5. Edwards questionable (knee management) on a back-to-back; without Ant, Bones Hyland +6.3 pts and +10.3 min. The fork →. Edwards if he plays: 25+ at 65¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 66.6¢ fee included), 30+ at 42¢. McDaniels 15+ YES 55¢, NO 49¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 50.8¢ fee included).
WAS @ CHA · 7:00 PM — CHA 57.5¢, WAS 42.5¢; CHA -2.5 at 50.5¢; total 228.5. Kon Knueppel, Coby White and Grant Williams out; Brandon Miller was +11.0 points in the one game without Knueppel. Davis 20+ at 61¢, Kalshi cheapest.
CHI @ BOS · 7:30 PM — BOS 86.5¢, CHI 13.5¢; BOS -13.5 at 53.5¢; total 233.5. Biggest spread of the night; BOS -15.5 at 45.5¢ (47.7¢ fee included) is 4.2¢ under the one book quoting it, on $402 of volume. Nic Claxton out, Patrick Williams questionable. Ladder not pulled this run; see the Prop Price Board.
DAL @ MIA · 7:30 PM, NBA TV — MIA 70.5¢, DAL 29.5¢; MIA -8.5 at 46.5¢; total 239.5, highest of the night. Heat 0-3, Mavs 1-2. Naji Marshall, Lively, Aldama, Biberovic and Caleb Martin out; Cooper Flagg was reported questionable (shoulder) Monday morning, took shootaround, and is not on the 1:15 PM report. Giannis: 25+ at 76¢, 30+ at 54¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 55.7¢ fee included), 35+ at 36¢; 10+ rebounds at 67¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 68.6¢ fee included). Kyrie Irving 25+ at 33¢ and Flagg 6+ assists at 50¢, Kalshi cheapest by 8¢ and 7.4¢.
IND @ MIL · 8:00 PM — IND 61.5¢, MIL 38.5¢; IND -4.5 at 51.5¢; total 238.5. Pacers on a back-to-back, T.J. McConnell out, Ivica Zubac a game-time decision (left ankle). Ladder not pulled; board.
PHX @ OKC · 8:00 PM — OKC 78.5¢, PHX 21.5¢; OKC -9.5 at 51.5¢; total 220.5, the lowest. Jalen Williams out, Thunder on a back-to-back; without J-Will, Ajay Mitchell +5.8 pts and +6.3 min over 31 games. Who benefits →. SGA: 25+ at 77¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 78.2¢ fee included), 30+ at 58¢, 35+ at 33¢; 2+ threes at 56¢, Kalshi cheapest by 4.5¢.
ATL @ HOU · 8:30 PM — HOU 65.5¢, ATL 34.5¢; HOU -4.5 at 51¢; total 229.5. Quietest moneyline on the board, $61,924 on Houston; nobody on the report. Ladder not pulled; board.
MEM @ UTA · 9:00 PM — UTA 51.5¢, MEM 48.5¢; UTA -1.5 at 49.5¢; total 238.5. The coin flip, both teams on a back-to-back; one book has Memphis +105, the rest -105 to -110. Ladder not pulled; board.
GSW @ DEN · 10:00 PM — DEN 70.5¢, GSW 29.5¢; DEN -7.5 at 47.5¢; total 235.5. Jimmy Butler and Kristaps Porzingis out, Gui Santos questionable. Jokić: 25+ at 60¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 61.7¢ fee included), 30+ at 36¢; 10+ assists YES 56¢, NO 45¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 46.7¢ fee included). Curry 30+ at 29¢ and Podziemski 15+ NO at 42¢, both Kalshi cheapest.

Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder →

The DFS sprinkle

Projection is per-minute production times minutes, so start with minutes: Ajay Mitchell ($4,600 on DraftKings per DK Network, which also lists Cason Wallace questionable) with Williams out; McDaniels and Hyland if Edwards sits; Miller with Knueppel out. The player prices behind the salaries are on the Prop Price Board.
Salaries lag roles by days: Jaime Jaquez Jr. is $5,900 for 20.7 a night in a bigger Milwaukee role; Neemias Queta is $4,700 after 15 points in 22 minutes, facing a Bulls team allowing 128.0 a game (all per DK Network).
Lines first: DAL @ MIA (239.5), IND @ MIL and MEM @ UTA (238.5) are the high totals; MEM @ UTA at -1.5 is the tightest spread, the target. CHI @ BOS at -13.5 is blowout risk for Celtics starters; the Bulls still score.
Stud chalk piles onto Giannis and SGA; the leverage is Jokić at 10:00 PM, where ownership thins.
Build to swap: 7:00 PM players in fixed slots, Denver and Golden State in G/F/UTIL. Late decisions: Edwards, Zubac, Santos, Flagg if the shoulder resurfaces. Injury page →
Back-to-backs: Minnesota, Indiana, OKC, Memphis and Utah played last night; veteran rest lands late.
First tip is 7:00 PM ET; DK Network says the DraftKings main slate is seven games, so check your contest. October roles are unknown and ownership thin, the time to be different; if you can't sit through the 10:00 PM window, play a smaller slate. Size with Kelly, the EV calculator and the Kalshi fee calculator.

Housekeeping

The official injury report refreshes at 1 PM and 5 PM ET; the injury page shows who benefits. Tomorrow's board already prices Nets at Celtics (BOS 80¢), Pistons at Knicks (NYK 59¢) and Blazers at Lakers (LAL 58.5¢). Payout rules: how Kalshi NBA contracts settle. Primers: NBA prediction markets, explained and the questionable tag and who benefits. The same boards answer inside Claude, ChatGPT and Cursor via the NBA desk inside AI apps.

Trade responsibly. The market is pricing all of this; you don't have to agree with it.

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Talk it through with the desk in the 7 Oracles Discord.

Past 7 Oracles NBA Reports

Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets. Market information, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

7 Oracles NBA Report — frequently asked

What is Today's 7 Oracles NBA Report?

A daily read of the NBA slate on prediction markets: where the money is on Kalshi, where Kalshi and the other venues disagree on the same game or player line, game-by-game notes and a short DFS minutes read. It is market information — what the venues are pricing — so you can make your own call.

When does the report update?

Every game day at about 1:30 PM ET, right after the league's official 1 PM injury report, so the prices it quotes already reflect who is in and who is out. This page always shows the newest report; each day also keeps its own dated page in the archive.

Where do the prices come from?

Kalshi prices sit beside the same lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX — the same data as our NBA Prop Price Board and game-lines table. Every price carries a time stamp. Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets.

Is the report a pick?

No. It reports what the markets are pricing and where they disagree. The DFS notes are minutes reads from the injury report, not projections. The call is yours; trade responsibly.

Where are past reports?

Each day’s report has its own page at /nba/report/<date> — the archive list sits at the bottom of this page.