7 Oracles NBA Report — Tue, Oct 27

7 Oracles NBA Report — Tuesday, Oct 27

$874K on the Kings at 7.5¢, Pistons 39.5¢ at MSG, and a 14¢ Prop Gap

Biggest Kalshi pool

$874K

Kings ML at SAS, 7.5¢

Widest gap vs the books

14.1¢

McBride 10+ pts, Kalshi side

Tonight

4 games

first tip 7:30 PM ET

The 7 Oracles desk · Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:15 PM ET; updated 1:47 PM ET

Quick Answer

Four games Tuesday: $874K sits on the Kings at 7.5¢ in San Antonio, Kalshi likes Portland more than the books do, and a 14¢ gap on a Knicks prop. Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:15 PM ET.

4 games · prices as of 1:15 PM ET · the boards update live

Four games tonight. Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:15 PM ET; the live boards are the NBA game board and the Prop Price Board. Every number is market, not model.

Nine finals last night, led by Boston's 134-99 rout of Chicago and Cleveland's 127-125 overtime win over Minnesota; the Celtics are on a back-to-back against Brooklyn, and nobody else on the card played. Also tonight: Pistons-Knicks without Jalen Duren, Wembanyama against a Kings team missing Keegan Murray and Ben Simmons, and Luka's Lakers against Portland with a point-guard fork until 5 PM.

Where the money is

Kings-Spurs is the pool of the night: $874,382 on Sacramento at 7.5¢. Then Portland 46.5¢ ($344,095), Brooklyn 16.5¢ ($258,552), Detroit 39.5¢ ($208,144). The full game board, Kalshi beside every book → NBA game board.
Most-traded props: Sabonis 6+ assists ($5,844, 61¢ ask), Brunson 25+ points ($5,839, 56¢). Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The disagreements worth knowing

Miles McBride 10+ points, 14.1¢ apart. Kalshi YES asks 28¢ (29.4¢ fee included); the lone book at the strike has +130, 43.5¢ per dollar (probability converter). One book, thin volume: a gap, not a verdict yet.
Celtics -11.5. Kalshi 54¢ against 50.5¢ at the best venue (-102), 5.5¢ dearer on a back-to-back. Nets +11.5 is Kalshi cheapest at 48.7¢ fee included.
Blazers-Lakers, two reads. Kalshi is cheapest on LAL -3.5 at 46.7¢ fee included, 4.3¢ under the lone book (51¢), yet prices Portland's moneyline at 46.5¢ against +123 (44.8¢) at the best book.
Sabonis 6+ assists NO: 40¢ ask (41.7¢ fee included) against 47.4¢ next best.

Only Kalshi-vs-Polymarket NBA gap of 3pp or more: tomorrow's Warriors-Timberwolves, 67 against 64, labeled ALIGNED. Kalshi vs Polymarket on NBA · Arb Scanner.

Game by game (Kalshi mid · tip ET)

Prop strikes are the Kalshi YES ask before the taker fee unless marked "fee included".

BKN @ BOS · 7:30 PM — Nets 16.5¢ / Celtics 82.5¢; BOS -11.5 at 54¢; total 222.5 (over 49¢). Back-to-back for Boston. Tatum 25+ pts 62¢, 30+ 36¢ (37.6¢ fee included, Kalshi cheapest by 4.2¢).
DET @ NYK · 8:00 PM — Pistons 39.5¢ / Knicks 60.5¢; NYK -3.5 at 53.5¢; total 218.5 (over 51.5¢). Duren out: in 16 games without him, Paul Reed averaged +17.3 minutes and +9.3 points. Here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report. Cade 25+ pts 44¢ (45.7¢ fee included, Kalshi cheapest).
SAC @ SAS · 8:00 PM — Kings 7.5¢ / Spurs 92.5¢; SAS -18.5 at 50.5¢; total 230.5 (over 54¢). Murray and Simmons out. Wembanyama 25+ pts 60¢, 30+ 35¢ (36.6¢ fee included, cheapest by 5.1¢), 12+ reb 46¢.
POR @ LAL · 11:00 PM — Blazers 46.5¢ / Lakers 54.5¢; LAL -3.5 at 44.5¢; total 233.5 (over 51.5¢), the slate's highest. Shaedon Sharpe out; Scoot Henderson questionable. Luka 30+ pts 63¢, 35+ 39¢ (40.7¢ fee included, cheapest), 10+ ast 28¢. Lillard 20+ pts 56¢.

Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The DFS sprinkle

Minutes first: projection is per-minute production times minutes, and the clearest bumps are Paul Reed (+17.3 in Duren-out games) and, if Scoot sits, Deni Avdija. Reed is the value-chalk shape, a cheap player with a real role; the stud tier piles onto Luka and Wemby, so Cade and Tatum are the leverage.
Salaries lag roles by days; no salary page was pulled this run, so check DraftKings before lock on Reed and Portland's point guard.
Lines before players: POR-LAL (233.5 total, 2.5-point spread) is the target. SAS -18.5 is blowout risk for Wembanyama's minutes; the Kings still score through Sabonis.
Build to swap: Celtics-Nets lock at 7:30 PM ET in fixed slots, G/F/UTIL for the 11 PM game so questionable Scoot Henderson, Ausar Thompson and Isaiah Joe swap late. Here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report.
Only Boston played last night. First month, thin ownership, unknown roles: be different. Can't be at the computer from 7:30 through 11 PM? Play smaller. The Prop Price Board has the player prices behind the salaries; size with Kelly, the EV calculator and the Kalshi fee calculator.

Housekeeping

The official injury report refreshes at 1 PM and 5 PM ET; the injury page shows who benefits. Tomorrow's board: Lakers at Clippers (Lakers 62¢), Thunder at Mavericks (Thunder 76¢), 76ers at Pacers (76ers 57.5¢). Explainers: how Kalshi NBA contracts settle · NBA prediction markets, explained · the questionable tag and who benefits. The same boards answer inside Claude, ChatGPT and Cursor via the NBA desk inside AI apps.

Trade responsibly. The market is pricing all of this; you don't have to agree with it.

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Talk it through with the desk in the 7 Oracles Discord.

Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets. Market information, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

7 Oracles NBA Report — frequently asked

What is Today's 7 Oracles NBA Report?

A daily read of the NBA slate on prediction markets: where the money is on Kalshi, where Kalshi and the other venues disagree on the same game or player line, game-by-game notes and a short DFS minutes read. It is market information — what the venues are pricing — so you can make your own call.

When does the report update?

Every game day at about 1:30 PM ET, right after the league's official 1 PM injury report, so the prices it quotes already reflect who is in and who is out. This page always shows the newest report; each day also keeps its own dated page in the archive.

Where do the prices come from?

Kalshi prices sit beside the same lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX — the same data as our NBA Prop Price Board and game-lines table. Every price carries a time stamp. Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets.

Is the report a pick?

No. It reports what the markets are pricing and where they disagree. The DFS notes are minutes reads from the injury report, not projections. The call is yours; trade responsibly.

Where are past reports?

Each day’s report has its own page at /nba/report/<date> — the archive list sits at the bottom of this page.