7 ORACLES NBA REPORT · SUN, OCT 25

7 Oracles NBA Report — Sunday, Oct 25

$215K on a Wolves Coin Flip, Embiid Sits, and Maxey's Assist Line Is 15¢ Cheaper on Kalshi

Biggest Kalshi pool
$215K
MIN ML vs TOR, 50.5¢
Widest gap vs the books
15¢
Maxey 6+ ast, Kalshi side
Tonight
7 games
first tip 5:00 PM ET

The 7 Oracles desk · Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:00 PM ET; updated 1:47 PM ET

Quick Answer

Seven NBA games tonight: $215K on a Wolves coin flip, Embiid out and LeBron back in Philly, and Maxey's assist line 15¢ cheaper on Kalshi than the books.

7 games · prices as of 1:00 PM ET · the boards update live

Seven games. Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:00 PM ET; the live boards are the NBA game board and the Prop Price Board. Every number is market, not model.

Last night: Sixers 127-116 over Milwaukee, Cavs 125-121 over Brooklyn, and six other finals. Philadelphia and Brooklyn are tonight's only back-to-backs. Joel Embiid rests and LeBron James returns against Detroit; Paolo Banchero is out against the 0-2 defending-champion Knicks.

Where the money is

$215K sits on the Wolves moneyline at 50.5¢ against $76K on Toronto at 49.5¢, three-to-one on a coin flip. Next: Lakers 68.5¢ ($109K), Thunder 90.5¢ ($107K, with $91K chasing the Clippers at 9.5¢). The quiet giant: Grizzlies-Kings total 234.5, holding $149K. The full game board, Kalshi beside every book → NBA game board. Most-traded props: Anthony Edwards 30+ points ($3.5K, 42¢ ask), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ threes ($2.5K, 54¢). Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The disagreements worth knowing

Tyrese Maxey 6+ assists. Kalshi asks 52¢ (53.8¢ fee included); FanDuel is -220, 68.8¢ through the probability converter; the best book is 67.2¢, a 15¢ gap. Here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report.
Desmond Bane 10+ points. Kalshi asks 79¢ (80.2¢ fee included) vs 92.9¢ at the best book; 12.7¢ this deep is thin liquidity.
Sixers -1.5. Kalshi 46.5¢ (48.7¢ fee included) vs FanDuel 51.9¢; Clippers-Thunder Under 223.5 is also Kalshi's, 48.7¢ fee included vs 51.7¢.
Grizzlies moneyline. Novig 60¢ vs Kalshi 63.7¢ fee included.

The Arb Scanner shows no Kalshi-vs-Polymarket NBA gap of 3 points today; see Kalshi vs Polymarket on NBA.

Game by game (Kalshi mid · tip ET)

Prop strikes are the Kalshi YES ask before the taker fee unless marked "fee included".

LAL @ UTA · 5:00 PM — Lakers 68.5¢, Jazz 31.5¢; LAL -6.5 at 49.5¢; total 237.5, the slate's highest. Darryn Peterson 2+ ast 77¢ (78.2¢ fee included) vs 87.5¢ at the best book; Dončić 30+ pts 59¢.
IND @ BKN · 6:00 PM — Pacers 71.5¢, Nets 28.5¢; IND -7.5 at 49.5¢; total 232.5. Brooklyn on a back-to-back; Nets +6.5 is Kalshi cheapest, 48.7¢ fee included.
LAC @ OKC · 7:00 PM — Thunder 90.5¢, Clippers 9.5¢; OKC -16.5 at 49.5¢; total 223.5. SGA 30+ pts 44¢, 35+ 24¢.
ORL @ NYK · 7:00 PM — Knicks 71.5¢, Magic 28.5¢; NYK -7.5 at 50.5¢; total 223.5. Banchero out, Anthony Black questionable; without Banchero (42 games) Goga Bitadze added 12.0 minutes, 5.6 points → who benefits.
TOR @ MIN · 7:00 PM — Wolves 50.5¢, Raptors 49.5¢; MIN -1.5 at 47.5¢; total 229.5. Edwards 30+ pts 42¢.
DET @ PHI · 7:30 PM — Pistons 50.5¢, Sixers 49.5¢; PHI -1.5 at 46.5¢ (Kalshi cheapest); total 227.5. Embiid out, LeBron back; Jalen Duren out, Paul Reed starts (+17.3 minutes in 16 games without Duren). Cunningham 25+ pts 52¢ (53.8¢ fee included) vs 62¢ at the best book.
MEM @ SAC · 9:00 PM — Grizzlies 61.5¢, Kings 39.5¢; MEM -3.5 at 50¢; total 234.5, $149K in it. Edey out, Coward questionable.

Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The DFS sprinkle

Lock is 5:00 PM ET. Projection is per-minute production times minutes; start with the minutes.
Roles the salaries haven't caught: Reed starting for Detroit, Bitadze without Banchero, Adem Bona without Embiid (+8.7 minutes, 94 games); no page we read showed salaries.
Lines first: 237.5 and a 6.5 spread in Utah is the target; OKC -16.5 is blowout risk.
Chalk and leverage: Reed is the near-minimum 30-minute role; Edwards and Dončić carry stud ownership, Maxey or SGA is the pivot (Prop Price Board).
Build to swap: Lakers and Jazz in fixed slots, Grizzlies-Kings in G/F/UTIL; late decisions: Black (ORL), Jose Alvarado (NYK), Coward (MEM). Here's more on the injury news and the fork → Injury Report.
Back-to-backs: Philadelphia and Brooklyn; rest news lands by 5 PM.
October roles are unknown, ownership thin: be different, and if you can't watch through 9 PM, play the early games. Size with Kelly, the EV calculator and the Kalshi fee calculator.

Housekeeping

The official injury report refreshes at 1 and 5 PM ET; the injury page shows who benefits. Tomorrow: Wolves at Cavaliers (CLE 56¢), Warriors at Nuggets (DEN 66.5¢). How Kalshi NBA contracts settle; primers: NBA prediction markets, explained, the questionable tag and who benefits. The same boards answer inside Claude, ChatGPT and Cursor via the NBA desk. Trade responsibly. The market is pricing all of this; you don't have to agree with it.

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Talk it through with the desk in the 7 Oracles Discord.

Past 7 Oracles NBA Reports

Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets. Market information, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

7 Oracles NBA Report — frequently asked

What is Today's 7 Oracles NBA Report?

A daily read of the NBA slate on prediction markets: where the money is on Kalshi, where Kalshi and the other venues disagree on the same game or player line, game-by-game notes and a short DFS minutes read. It is market information — what the venues are pricing — so you can make your own call.

When does the report update?

Every game day at about 1:30 PM ET, right after the league's official 1 PM injury report, so the prices it quotes already reflect who is in and who is out. This page always shows the newest report; each day also keeps its own dated page in the archive.

Where do the prices come from?

Kalshi prices sit beside the same lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX — the same data as our NBA Prop Price Board and game-lines table. Every price carries a time stamp. Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets.

Is the report a pick?

No. It reports what the markets are pricing and where they disagree. The DFS notes are minutes reads from the injury report, not projections. The call is yours; trade responsibly.

Where are past reports?

Each day’s report has its own page at /nba/report/<date> — the archive list sits at the bottom of this page.