7 ORACLES NBA REPORT · FRI, OCT 23

7 Oracles NBA Report — Friday, Oct 23

$762K on Toronto, a 49/51 Wolves–Magic Coin Flip, and a Luka Rebound Line the Books Price 6.8¢ Higher

Biggest Kalshi pool
$762K
Raptors ML at WAS, 74.5¢
Widest gap vs the books
6.8¢
Luka 8+ reb YES, Kalshi side
Tonight
12 games
first tip 4:00 PM ET

The 7 Oracles desk · Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:15 PM ET; updated 1:49 PM ET

Quick Answer

Twelve NBA games Friday: $762K on Toronto, a Wolves–Magic coin flip, the Grizzlies +3.5 and Luka 8+ reb cheaper on Kalshi than the books. Market prices, not model.

12 games · prices as of 1:15 PM ET · the boards update live

Twelve games tonight, the first at 4:00 PM ET. Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:15 PM ET (prop ladders 1:30 PM ET); the live boards are the NBA game board and the Prop Price Board. Every number is market, not model.

Last night was a two-game card: Philadelphia 114, Cleveland 106 and Oklahoma City 96, Denver 84, so none of tonight's 24 teams is on a back-to-back. Friday brings 12 games and two Prime Video windows, Knicks at Celtics at 7 and Rockets at Spurs at 9:30. The Kalshi crowd has pushed $762K through one moneyline, piled onto the road side of a coin flip in Orlando, and left several spreads and prop strikes where Kalshi and the books disagree by 3¢ or more. The 1 PM report has Knueppel, Anthony Black, Butler, Porzingis and Sharpe out; De'Aaron Fox and Podziemski are forks.

Where the money is

Raptors ML at Washington — $762K at 74.5¢, the biggest pool on the board, with $294K on the Wizards at 25.5¢.
Timberwolves ML at Orlando — $565K on Minnesota at 49.5¢, $66K on the Magic at 50.5¢. A coin flip by price, a landslide by volume.
Knicks ML at Boston — $333K on New York at 45.5¢ against $43K on Boston at 54.5¢. The dog carries nearly eight times the home side's volume.
Bucks ML $277K at 52.5¢; Pelicans ML at Utah $237K at 48.5¢ (Jazz $40K); Trail Blazers ML at Sacramento $234K at 80.5¢.
Most-traded props we pulled (Kalshi YES ask, before the taker fee): Caleb Wilson 20+ pts ($9.9K, 43¢), Darryn Peterson 2+ 3PM ($9.0K, 49¢), Jayson Tatum 6+ ast ($6.1K, 62¢), Luka Dončić 8+ ast ($2.6K, 51¢), Wembanyama 30+ pts ($2.3K, 28¢). Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board. The full game board, Kalshi beside every book → NBA game board.

The disagreements worth knowing

Grizzlies +3.5 at Golden State — Kalshi 45.5¢ mid (47.7¢ to buy, taker fee included) vs FanDuel 51.9¢. A 4.2¢ gap, the widest game line on the board, Kalshi the cheap side. Golden State is without Butler and Porzingis, Podziemski questionable; Memphis has Cedric Coward doubtful. The main GSW -4.5 trades at 49.5¢ with the venues in line. Here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report + Who Benefits.
Kings +9.5 vs Portland — Kalshi 46.5¢ mid (48.7¢ to buy, fee included) vs FanDuel 52.4¢, a 3.7¢ gap on the alternate number; the main POR -10.5 is 49.5¢ with the books in line. FanDuel's -110 converts to 52.4¢ per $1 of payout; the probability converter does that for any American line.
Knicks +1.5 at Boston — Kalshi 45.5¢ mid (47.7¢ to buy, fee included) vs the best book at 53.5¢. A 3.5¢ gap, but only $536 has traded there; the main BOS -2.5 is 50.5¢ on Kalshi and at Novig. The real story is the moneyline pool, $333K on the Knicks against $43K on Boston.
Luka Dončić 8+ rebounds — Kalshi YES 46.7¢ (fee included) vs the best book 49.5¢, 6.8¢ in Kalshi's favor; the NO side runs the other way, a 57¢ ask on Kalshi against DraftKings 50.5¢. The board's headline prop gaps are wider still: Bobby Portis 2+ ast YES by 9.5¢ and Karl-Anthony Towns 4+ ast YES by 9.4¢, both cheaper on Kalshi. The other way: Pelicans +1.5 at Utah is 3.2¢ pricier on Kalshi (54.7¢ vs FanDuel 51.5¢).

The cross-venue scan found no Kalshi-vs-Polymarket NBA gap of 3pp or more across 12 matched markets (widest: 2pp). Watch it on the Arb Scanner and the Kalshi vs Polymarket NBA page. Before sizing, run the EV calculator and the Kalshi fee calculator; a 3¢ gap shrinks once the fee is in.

Game by game (Kalshi mid · tip ET)

Game lines are Kalshi mids. Prop strikes are the Kalshi YES ask before the taker fee unless marked "fee included", which is the cheapest-venue price on the Prop Price Board.

Bulls at Bucks · 4:00 PM — CHI 47.5¢ / MIL 52.5¢; MIL -1.5 at 49.5¢; total 240.5 (over 49.5¢), tied for the night's highest. Nic Claxton out for Chicago, Giddey probable (10+ ast 47¢). Caleb Wilson's points ladder is the most-traded prop on the board: 15+ 71¢, 20+ 43¢, 25+ 22¢.
Hawks at Hornets · 7:00 PM — ATL 56.5¢ / CHA 43.5¢; ATL -2.5 at 51.5¢; total 227.5. Charlotte is without Knueppel, Coby White and Grant Williams; the splits have Brandon Miller +11.0 pts and +7.8 min in the one game without Knueppel (tiny sample). Here's who benefits → NBA Injury Report + Who Benefits.
Mavericks at Pacers · 7:00 PM — DAL 29.5¢ / IND 70.5¢; IND -7.5 at 48.5¢; total 240.5 (over 51.5¢). Lively II out and Jett Howard doubtful for Dallas; McConnell out, Nesmith and Sheppard questionable for Indiana.
Timberwolves at Magic · 7:00 PM — MIN 49.5¢ / ORL 50.5¢; ORL -1.5 at 48.5¢ (MIN -1.5 at 47¢ with $86K traded); total 233.5. Anthony Black out: in 21 games without him Tristan da Silva averaged +6.0 pts on +8.3 min (mostly with Franz Wagner also out). DiVincenzo out for Minnesota.
Knicks at Celtics · 7:00 PM · Prime Video — NYK 45.5¢ / BOS 54.5¢; BOS -2.5 at 50.5¢; total 221.5, the lowest on the board. Tatum 25+ pts 56¢, 30+ 32¢, 6+ ast 62¢; Brunson 25+ pts 52¢, 30+ 29¢. Kalshi is cheapest on Towns 2+, 4+ and 6+ ast YES by 9.5¢, 9.4¢ and 7.3¢.
Raptors at Wizards · 7:00 PM — TOR 74.5¢ / WAS 25.5¢; TOR -8.5 at 50.5¢; total 237.5. $762K on Toronto.
Pistons at Heat · 8:00 PM — DET 53.5¢ / MIA 46.5¢; DET -1.5 at 51.5¢; total 235.5. Miami is the volume side, $51K to $38K.
Rockets at Spurs · 9:30 PM · Prime Video — HOU 36.5¢ / SAS 63.5¢; SAS -4.5 at 51.5¢; total 225.5. Fox (wrist) and Keldon Johnson are questionable, so San Antonio is a fork until 5 PM; in 28 games without Fox, Stephon Castle's usage rose 2.7 points. Adams and Reed Sheppard questionable for Houston. Wembanyama 25+ pts 53¢, 30+ 28¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 29.4¢ fee included), 12+ reb 44¢.
Pelicans at Jazz · 9:30 PM — NOP 48.5¢ / UTA 50.5¢; UTA -1.5 at 48¢; total 240.5 (over 47.5¢, Kalshi cheapest at 49.8¢ fee included). Nurkic out for Utah. Darryn Peterson 2+ 3PM has $9K traded at 49¢, and Kalshi is 5.3¢ cheaper on the NO side (53.8¢ vs 59¢, fee included). Jeremiah Fears 15+ pts 40¢.
Clippers at Lakers · 10:00 PM — LAC 23.5¢ / LAL 76.5¢; LAL -9.5 at 47.5¢; total 226.5. Beal, Ingram and Strus out for the Clippers; LaRavia questionable for the Lakers. Luka 30+ pts 62¢ (DraftKings cheaper at 58.8¢), 35+ 37¢, 40+ 23¢, 8+ ast 51¢, 8+ reb 45¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 46.7¢ fee included).
Grizzlies at Warriors · 10:00 PM — MEM 38.5¢ / GSW 60.5¢; GSW -4.5 at 49.5¢; total 237.5. Butler and Porzingis out, Podziemski questionable: in 41 games without Butler, Gui Santos averaged +10.3 pts on +17.1 min (mostly with Curry also out). Golden State carries $117K to Memphis's $34K.
Trail Blazers at Kings · 10:00 PM — POR 80.5¢ / SAC 20.5¢; POR -10.5 at 49.5¢, the biggest spread of the night; total 232.5. Sharpe out for Portland: Donovan Clingan +3.4 pts and +3.9% usage in 41 games without him. Simmons out for Sacramento.

Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The DFS sprinkle

Lock is the slate's first tip: 4:00 PM ET for Bulls at Bucks. The DK Network page's main slate was a six-game card, so confirm which slate you are in before the 7:00 PM wave.
Minutes first, then price. Projection is per-minute production times minutes, and DK salaries lag role changes by days. The DK Network page lists Grayson Allen at $4,800 with Knueppel and White out, Moussa Diabate at $5,200 after a 34-minute opener, Aaron Wiggins at $4,300 as Atlanta's new shooter and Ivica Zubac at $6,900 in Indiana. Check their strikes on the Prop Price Board first.
Game lines before players. Three totals sit at 240.5: Bulls–Bucks, Mavericks–Pacers, Pelicans–Jazz; the first and last are also 1.5-point spreads, the target profile. Portland -10.5 and Lakers -9.5 are blowout risk for the favorite's starters; the Kings and Clippers still score.
Value chalk and stud leverage. The near-minimum 30-minute roles are in Charlotte (three rotation players out) and Golden State. The DK page's stud tier is Giannis $10,200, Cade Cunningham $9,700, Anthony Edwards $9,500, Jalen Johnson $9,100; ownership piles onto one or two, so the leverage is in the names it skips.
Build to swap. Early tips in fixed slots, 9:30 and 10:00 PM players in G, F and UTIL. Late forks: Fox and Keldon Johnson (Spurs), Podziemski (Warriors), LaRavia (Lakers), Nesmith and Sheppard (Pacers). The fork page → NBA Injury Report + Who Benefits.
Back-to-backs: nobody. Only Philadelphia, Cleveland, Oklahoma City and Denver played last night, and none of them plays tonight; veteran rest still lands on the 5 PM report.
It is week one. Roles are unknown, ownership is thin, salaries are built on last season: the window to be different. If you cannot be at the computer from the 4 PM lock through the 10 PM window, play a smaller slate. Size with Kelly and the EV calculator.

Housekeeping

The official NBA injury report refreshes at 1 PM and 5 PM ET; the injury page shows who benefits from each absence.
Tomorrow's board already has Kalshi prices: Bucks at 76ers (PHI 82.5¢), Warriors at Suns (PHX 63.5¢), Spurs at Mavericks (SAS 77¢).
Payout rules: How Kalshi NBA contracts settle. New here: NBA prediction markets, explained and The questionable tag and who benefits.
The same boards answer inside Claude, ChatGPT and Cursor: the NBA desk inside AI apps.
Trade responsibly. The market is pricing all of this; you don't have to agree with it.

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Past 7 Oracles NBA Reports

Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets. Market information, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

7 Oracles NBA Report — frequently asked

What is Today's 7 Oracles NBA Report?

A daily read of the NBA slate on prediction markets: where the money is on Kalshi, where Kalshi and the other venues disagree on the same game or player line, game-by-game notes and a short DFS minutes read. It is market information — what the venues are pricing — so you can make your own call.

When does the report update?

Every game day at about 1:30 PM ET, right after the league's official 1 PM injury report, so the prices it quotes already reflect who is in and who is out. This page always shows the newest report; each day also keeps its own dated page in the archive.

Where do the prices come from?

Kalshi prices sit beside the same lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX — the same data as our NBA Prop Price Board and game-lines table. Every price carries a time stamp. Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets.

Is the report a pick?

No. It reports what the markets are pricing and where they disagree. The DFS notes are minutes reads from the injury report, not projections. The call is yours; trade responsibly.

Where are past reports?

Each day’s report has its own page at /nba/report/<date> — the archive list sits at the bottom of this page.