7 ORACLES NBA REPORT · SAT, OCT 24

7 Oracles NBA Report — Saturday, Oct 24

$178K on the Heat, Kalshi Leans Bulls, and 11 Teams on a Back-to-Back

Biggest Kalshi pool
$178K
MIA ML at CHA, 56.5¢
Widest gap vs the books
14.8¢
Wiggins 2+ ast, Kalshi YES
Tonight
8 games
first tip 6:00 PM ET

The 7 Oracles desk · Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:00 PM ET; updated 1:49 PM ET

Quick Answer

Eight NBA games Saturday: $178K on the Heat, a Bulls lean on Kalshi where the books see a pick'em, LeBron out, Kyrie and Curry forks, and 11 teams on a back-to-back.

8 games · prices as of 1:00 PM ET · the boards update live

Eight games tonight. Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:00 PM ET; the live boards are the NBA game board and the Prop Price Board. Every number is market, not model.

Twelve finals last night (Chicago over Milwaukee 132-125, Houston over San Antonio 114-110, Atlanta over Charlotte 128-81) leave 11 of tonight's 16 teams on a back-to-back. The threads: Giannis Antetokounmpo in a Heat jersey, LeBron James out for the Sixers, Kyrie Irving a game-time call against Wembanyama, Stephen Curry a rest decision in Phoenix.

Where the money is

The biggest Kalshi pool is Miami at Charlotte: $178K on the Heat at 56.5¢ against $15K on the Hornets at 43.5¢. San Antonio at Dallas is next: $163K on the Spurs at 83.5¢, $94K on the Mavericks at 17¢. Washington at Chicago has $123K on the Bulls at 52.5¢ against $88K on the Wizards at 47.5¢; Houston at Atlanta is the one spot the crowd backs the road dog, $98K on the Rockets at 48.5¢ to $80K on the Hawks at 50.5¢, against books that lean Atlanta. The Heat–Hornets total 230.5 is the busiest non-moneyline contract, $115K. The full game board, Kalshi beside every book → NBA game board.

Most-traded prop strikes we pulled: Devin Vassell 15+ pts ($8.3K, 34¢ ask), Tyrese Maxey 6+ ast ($8.1K, 62¢ ask) and Stephon Castle 6+ ast ($4.4K, 58¢ ask). Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The disagreements worth knowing

Wizards–Bulls: pick'em at the books, Bulls lean on Kalshi. FanDuel has Chicago -104, 51.0¢ through the probability converter; Kalshi's Bulls contract costs 54.7¢ fee included, a 3.7¢ gap, and the volume sits on Chicago too. The flip side is tonight's widest game-line edge in Kalshi's favor: Washington -1.5 at 46.7¢ fee included versus 51.0¢ at FanDuel. Here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report.
Bucks–Sixers total: Kalshi wants the Over. Over 234.5 costs 56.7¢ fee included on Kalshi against 51.5¢ at the best book, a 5.2¢ premium; the Under is Kalshi-cheapest at 48.7¢ fee included versus 51.9¢ at FanDuel. LeBron James is out for Philadelphia (low back/sciatica management, per the official report); Milwaukee gave up 132 last night.
Star assist lines run hotter on Kalshi. Giannis 6+ ast is 62¢ ask against 53.9¢ at Novig, so the Kalshi NO is the cheapest Under anywhere at 40.7¢ fee included, 9.3¢ below the next venue. Same shape on Castle 6+ ast (58¢ ask vs 53.3¢ at DraftKings; Kalshi NO 44.7¢ fee included) and Maxey 6+ ast (62¢ ask vs 56.5¢ at Novig). The EV calculator prices the gap after fees.

The cross-venue scan found no Kalshi-vs-Polymarket gap of 3 points or more tonight; the two it flagged (Pacers–Bucks 3.5pp, Wolves–Cavaliers 3pp, Kalshi cheaper on both) are Monday's. Track them on the Arb Scanner and the Kalshi vs Polymarket NBA page.

Game by game (Kalshi mid · tip ET)

Prop strikes are the Kalshi YES ask before the taker fee unless marked "fee included".

MIA @ CHA · 6:00 PM — Heat 56.5¢, Hornets 43.5¢; MIA -3.5 at 49.5¢; total 230.5, Under 53.5¢. Both on a back-to-back. Charlotte lists Kon Knueppel and Coby White out; Brandon Miller was +11.0 pts in the one prior game without Knueppel. Giannis: 25+ pts 67¢, 30+ pts 44¢; 10+ reb Kalshi cheapest at 59.7¢ fee included versus 67.9¢ next. Who benefits → NBA Injury Report.
BKN @ CLE · 7:30 PM — Cavaliers 81.5¢, Nets 17.5¢; CLE -11.5 at 47.5¢; total 227.5, Over 53.5¢, with the Under Kalshi-cheapest at 48.7¢ fee included, 3.5¢ under the books. Neither team played last night. Their strikes are on the Prop Price Board.
MIL @ PHI · 7:30 PM — Sixers 84.5¢, Bucks 15.5¢; PHI -12.5 at 50¢; total 234.5, Over 54¢. LeBron out, Dean Wade questionable; Milwaukee on the second night. Maxey: 25+ pts 54¢, 30+ pts 28¢; 3+ 3PM Kalshi cheapest at 56.7¢ fee included versus 60¢.
SAS @ DAL · 8:00 PM — Spurs 83.5¢, Mavericks 17¢; SAS -12.5 at 51.5¢; total 230.5, Over 51.5¢. Both on a back-to-back. Dallas: Flagg and Dereck Lively II out, Irving a game-time decision for rest, Caleb Martin and Jett Howard game-time calls. Naji Marshall is +8.7 min and +5.8 pts in 29 games without Irving. Wembanyama: 25+ pts 63¢, 30+ pts 36¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 37.6¢ fee included versus 44.4¢ next, the widest star gap tonight). Max Christie 15+ pts Kalshi cheapest at 32.5¢ fee included against 40¢ at Fanatics. The fork → NBA Injury Report.
WAS @ CHI · 8:00 PM — Bulls 52.5¢, Wizards 47.5¢; WAS -1.5 at 44¢; total 244.5, the highest on the board, Over 49¢. Both on a back-to-back; Chicago plays at the league's fastest pace. Nic Claxton out, AJ Dybantsa a game-time call, Josh Giddey nursing a wrist. Anthony Davis 25+ pts 44¢; Trae Young 12+ ast 45¢; Matas Buzelis 2+ 3PM Kalshi-cheapest at 60.7¢ fee included versus 64¢.
HOU @ ATL · 8:30 PM — Hawks 50.5¢, Rockets 48.5¢; ATL -1.5 at 48.5¢; total 226.5, Over 50.5¢ (Kalshi only at that number). Both on a back-to-back; nobody listed on the 1:15 report. Durant: 25+ pts 46¢ ask (Kalshi cheapest, 47.7¢ fee included), 2+ 3PM 61¢ ask (Kalshi cheapest, 62.7¢ fee included).
NOP @ DEN · 9:00 PM — Nuggets 80.5¢, Pelicans 19.5¢; DEN -11.5 at 49.5¢; total 239.5, Over 52¢. New Orleans on the second night; Denver rested. The thinnest pools ($9K and $12K). Their strikes are on the Prop Price Board.
GSW @ PHX · 10:00 PM — Suns 76.5¢, Warriors 23.5¢; PHX -9.5 at 48.5¢; total 221.5, the lowest on the board, Over 50.5¢. Golden State on a back-to-back with Jimmy Butler III, Brandin Podziemski and Kristaps Porzingis out and Curry a game-time decision for rest; Kalshi lists no Curry strike. Without Curry, Gui Santos is +11.1 min and +6.9 pts over 49 games. The fork → NBA Injury Report.

Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The DFS sprinkle

Minutes first. Projection is per-minute production times minutes; tonight that means 11 teams on a back-to-back (everyone but Brooklyn, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Denver and Phoenix), with rest calls landing at 5 PM and after.
Salaries lag roles. DraftKings has Tyrese Maxey at $8,200 on a night LeBron sits, after 40- and 42-minute games. Tre Jones ($4,800) and Jalen Smith ($5,200) are the Chicago minutes plays; Mario Hezonja ($3,500) is the near-minimum value in Cleveland; Naji Marshall ($4,800) is the Dallas name.
Lines before players. Washington–Chicago (total 244.5, spread 1.5) is the target; Houston–Atlanta is the other close one. The four double-digit spreads (Sixers, Spurs, Cavs, Nuggets) are blowout risk for the favorites' starters, but the other side still scores.
Chalk and leverage. Eat the value chalk (Hezonja, Jones) and find leverage in the stud tier: Wembanyama ($10,700) will be the ownership magnet after a 1-of-13 night, which makes Anthony Davis ($8,700) and Durant ($7,500) the pivots. The player prices behind the salaries → Prop Price Board.
Build to swap. Early tips (Charlotte 6:00, Cleveland and Philly 7:30) in fixed slots; 8 PM and later in G/F/UTIL. Late decisions: Irving, Martin and Howard (Dallas), Harris (San Antonio), Dybantsa (Washington), Wade (Philadelphia), Curry (Golden State). Here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report.
Be different, stay small. First month, roles unknown, ownership thin: the time to be different. Lineups lock at 6:00 PM ET with Heat–Hornets (the five-game DraftKings main slate starts at 7:30); if you can't be at the computer through the 10 PM Phoenix tip, play a smaller slate. Size with Kelly and the Kalshi fee calculator.

Housekeeping

The official NBA injury report refreshes at 1 PM and 5 PM ET; the injury page shows who benefits. Tomorrow's board lists Clippers at Thunder (OKC 88.5¢), Pistons at Sixers (PHI 53.5¢) and Lakers at Jazz (LAL 70¢). Settlement rules: How Kalshi NBA contracts settle. Primers: NBA prediction markets, explained and The questionable tag and who benefits. The same boards answer inside Claude, ChatGPT and Cursor: the NBA desk inside AI apps.

Trade responsibly. The market is pricing all of this; you don't have to agree with it.

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Past 7 Oracles NBA Reports

Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets. Market information, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

7 Oracles NBA Report — frequently asked

What is Today's 7 Oracles NBA Report?

A daily read of the NBA slate on prediction markets: where the money is on Kalshi, where Kalshi and the other venues disagree on the same game or player line, game-by-game notes and a short DFS minutes read. It is market information — what the venues are pricing — so you can make your own call.

When does the report update?

Every game day at about 1:30 PM ET, right after the league's official 1 PM injury report, so the prices it quotes already reflect who is in and who is out. This page always shows the newest report; each day also keeps its own dated page in the archive.

Where do the prices come from?

Kalshi prices sit beside the same lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX — the same data as our NBA Prop Price Board and game-lines table. Every price carries a time stamp. Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets.

Is the report a pick?

No. It reports what the markets are pricing and where they disagree. The DFS notes are minutes reads from the injury report, not projections. The call is yours; trade responsibly.

Where are past reports?

Each day’s report has its own page at /nba/report/<date> — the archive list sits at the bottom of this page.