7 Oracles NBA Report — Thu, Oct 29

7 Oracles NBA Report — Thursday, Oct 29

Ja Faces Memphis, $710K Rides a Blazers Total, and Wells Is 8.8¢ Cheap

Biggest Kalshi pool

$710K

MEM @ POR total 233.5, O 48.5¢

Widest gap vs the books

8.8¢

J. Wells 2+ 3PM, Kalshi side

Tonight

3 games

first tip 7:00 PM ET

The 7 Oracles desk · Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:30 PM ET; updated 1:42 PM ET

Quick Answer

Three NBA games Thursday: $710K on the Grizzlies-Blazers total, Ja Morant's first game against Memphis, and Jaylen Wells 2+ 3PM 8.8¢ cheaper on Kalshi than the books.

3 games · prices as of 1:30 PM ET · the boards update live

Three games tonight. Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:30 PM ET; the live boards are the NBA game board and the Prop Price Board. Every number is market, not model.

Memphis (4-0, last out Monday) and Portland (3-0, Tuesday) are rested, so nobody in the late game is on a back-to-back; we could not confirm Wednesday's finals for the other four teams. The storyline: Ja Morant sees Memphis for the first time since the June trade that sent him to Portland.

Where the money is

The biggest Kalshi pool is a total: $710,140 on MEM @ POR 233.5, Over 48.5¢ / Under 51.5¢, a number no book quotes. The full game board, Kalshi beside every book → NBA game board.
Moneylines: POR $295,629 at 72.5¢; CLE $202,133 at 48.5¢ against ATL $77,537 at 51.5¢, so the crowd's money is on Cleveland while the mid leans Atlanta.
Most-traded props: Ja Morant 20+ pts $8,997 (45¢ ask), Sabonis 14+ reb $5,182 (55¢). Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The disagreements worth knowing

Jaylen Wells 2+ 3PM. Kalshi YES 43¢ ask (44.7¢ fee included, Kalshi cheapest) against 53.5¢ at the best book: 8.8¢, widest on the board.
Jeremiah Fears 15+ pts. Kalshi 36¢ ask; FanDuel's +240 is 29.4¢ via the probability converter, 8.2¢ dearer on Kalshi.
Ja Morant 20+ pts. Kalshi 45¢ ask against FanDuel's 39.4¢. The revenge-game crowd is paying up on the exchange.
MEM @ POR Under 231.5. Kalshi 48.7¢ fee included against 51.7¢ at the best book, the only 3¢ game-line gap tonight.

The Arb Scanner found one Kalshi-vs-Polymarket gap of 3pp or more, an NHL game; nothing in the NBA. Here's Kalshi vs Polymarket on NBA →

Game by game (Kalshi mid · tip ET)

Prop strikes are the Kalshi YES ask before the taker fee unless marked "fee included".

CLE @ ATL · 7:00 PM — CLE 48.5¢ / ATL 51.5¢, ATL -1.5 at 49¢, total 237.5, Over 48.5¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 50.8¢ fee included), the night's highest. Tyson and Meleek Thomas are questionable for Cleveland. Here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report. Props: Mitchell 25+ pts 48¢, Harden 8+ ast 41¢.
SAC @ NOP · 8:00 PM — SAC 32.5¢ / NOP 67.5¢, NOP -6.5 at 48.5¢, total 235.5, Over 51.5¢. Sacramento is without Keegan Murray, Ben Simmons, Raynaud and Cardwell; Missi is out and Poole doubtful. Props: rookie Darius Acuff Jr. 25+ pts 41¢, Zion 20+ pts 57¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 58.7¢ fee included).
MEM @ POR · 10:00 PM — MEM 27.5¢ / POR 72.5¢, POR -7.5 at 50.5¢, total 233.5. Shaedon Sharpe is out (meniscus surgery): in 41 games without him Clingan averaged +3.4 pts and +3.9% usage. Here's more on the injury news and the fork → who benefits. Ladders: Morant 15+/20+/25+ pts 71¢/45¢/24¢; Lillard 4+ ast 61¢ (Kalshi cheapest, 62.7¢ fee included); Boozer 15+ pts 62¢.

Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The DFS sprinkle

Lock is 7:00 PM ET. Three games, thin ownership, October roles unknown: the night to be different. Can't stay up for the 10 PM tip? Play a smaller slate.
Lines before players: CLE-ATL is the target (237.5, spread 1.5). POR -7.5 is blowout risk for Portland's starters, but Memphis still scores.
DraftKings salaries lag role changes by days; no page we pulled showed tonight's. Roles that moved: Acuff Jr. with Murray and Simmons out, Clingan with Sharpe out.
Projection is per-minute production times minutes; the Prop Price Board holds the market's read behind each salary. The stud tier piles onto Jerome and Mitchell, so Morant at 45¢ for 20+ is the leverage; near-minimum Kings with 30-minute roles are the value chalk.
Build to swap: CLE-ATL in fixed slots, MEM-POR in G/F/UTIL. Late calls: Tyson, Thomas, Poole. Here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report. Nobody in the late game played last night.
Size with Kelly and the EV calculator; net the fee with the Kalshi fee calculator.

Housekeeping

The official injury report refreshes at 1 PM and 5 PM ET; the injury page shows who benefits. Here's the questionable tag, explained →
Tomorrow: NYK @ PHI (PHI 53¢), LAL @ GSW (LAL 53.5¢), DEN @ PHX (DEN 59.5¢).
How Kalshi NBA contracts settle · NBA prediction markets, explained.
The same boards answer inside Claude, ChatGPT and Cursor: the NBA desk inside AI apps.
Trade responsibly. The market is pricing all of this; you don't have to agree with it.

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Talk it through with the desk in the 7 Oracles Discord.

Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets. Market information, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

7 Oracles NBA Report — frequently asked

What is Today's 7 Oracles NBA Report?

A daily read of the NBA slate on prediction markets: where the money is on Kalshi, where Kalshi and the other venues disagree on the same game or player line, game-by-game notes and a short DFS minutes read. It is market information — what the venues are pricing — so you can make your own call.

When does the report update?

Every game day at about 1:30 PM ET, right after the league's official 1 PM injury report, so the prices it quotes already reflect who is in and who is out. This page always shows the newest report; each day also keeps its own dated page in the archive.

Where do the prices come from?

Kalshi prices sit beside the same lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX — the same data as our NBA Prop Price Board and game-lines table. Every price carries a time stamp. Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets.

Is the report a pick?

No. It reports what the markets are pricing and where they disagree. The DFS notes are minutes reads from the injury report, not projections. The call is yours; trade responsibly.

Where are past reports?

Each day’s report has its own page at /nba/report/<date> — the archive list sits at the bottom of this page.