7 ORACLES NBA REPORT · SUN, NOV 1

7 Oracles NBA Report — Sunday, Nov 1

$337K Rides the Raptors as 42¢ Dogs, the Magic Lose Banchero and Suggs, and the Warriors Are 54¢ Favorites Without Curry

Biggest Kalshi pool
$337K
Raptors ML at LAL, 42.5¢
Widest gap vs the books
9.4¢
CMB 1+ 3PM YES, Kalshi side
Tonight
4 games
first tip 3:30 PM ET

The 7 Oracles desk · Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:15 PM ET; updated 1:47 PM ET

Quick Answer

Four NBA games Sunday: $337K on Toronto as 42¢ dogs at LAL, Orlando without Banchero and Suggs vs Boston, Golden State a 54¢ favorite without Curry. Kalshi prices beside the books.

4 games · prices as of 1:15 PM ET · the boards update live

Four games tonight. Prices are Kalshi mids as of 1:15 PM ET; the live boards are the NBA game board and the Prop Price Board. Every number is market, not model.

Last night was a blowout card — Grizzlies 136-105 over the Kings, Cavaliers by 25 over the Bucks, Rockets 119-98 over the Thunder — and none of tonight's eight teams played, so nobody is on a back-to-back, though all eight play again tomorrow. Tonight: the Magic host the Celtics without Paolo Banchero or Jalen Suggs, the 0-5 Nets visit a Pacers team missing Tyrese Haliburton and Ivica Zubac, Golden State is a favorite with Curry, Butler, Green and Porzingis out, and $337K of Kalshi money is on Toronto as the dog in Los Angeles.

Where the money is

Raptors ML at LAL — $337,235 on TOR at 42.5¢, more than double the $159,479 on the Lakers at 56.5¢. The crowd is on the dog. The full game board, Kalshi beside every book → NBA game board.
Celtics ML at ORL — $199,977 on BOS at 71.5¢ vs $76,133 on the Magic at 28.5¢. The 222.5 total is the other big pool: $156,362, Over 49.5¢ / Under 50.5¢.
Warriors ML vs LAC — $137,819 on GSW at 54.5¢ vs $70,561 on the Clippers at 45.5¢, with five Warriors on the injury report.
Nets at Pacers — $45,854 on BKN at 38.5¢, $38,326 on IND at 61.5¢.
Most-traded props: Rui Hachimura 15+ pts, $4,300 at 57¢ ask; Austin Reaves 2+ 3PM, $2,095 at 66¢; Franz Wagner 20+ pts, $1,746 at 62¢; Pascal Siakam 20+ pts, $1,721 at 69¢; Desmond Bane 4+ ast, $1,479 at 52¢; Jayson Tatum 30+ pts, $1,442 at 34¢; Luka Dončić 35+ pts, $1,402 at 42¢. Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The disagreements worth knowing

Magic +5.5 — Kalshi 45.7¢ fee included, the best book 54.1¢ (8.4¢ gap). An alternate spread quoted by one book, and the widest game-line gap on the board, running the Magic's way on a night they're down two starters. The other side, Celtics -5.5, is 7.7¢ dearer on Kalshi (58.7¢ vs 51¢). Here's more on the injury news and the fork → NBA Injury Report + Who Benefits.
Collin Murray-Boyles 1+ 3PM YES — Kalshi 46.7¢ fee included (45¢ ask), the best book 56.1¢ (9.4¢ gap). The widest prop gap on the slate; DraftKings' -128 is 56.1¢ through the probability converter. The books quote here is from the morning refresh — re-check it.
Celtics ML — Kalshi 73.4¢ fee included, the best book 68.3¢ (5.1¢, Kalshi dearer). Kalshi prices Boston like a -275 favorite, the cheapest book nearer -215. For the Magic, Kalshi's 30.4¢ fee included sits on top of ProphetX's 29.9¢.
Rui Hachimura 6+ reb — Kalshi 40¢ ask vs DraftKings 35.7¢ (6¢, Kalshi dearer). He carries the slate's biggest prop pool (15+ pts, $4,300), and Kalshi is 3.2¢ dearer than the best book there too.

Arbitrage scan: nothing. No Kalshi-vs-Polymarket gap reached 3pp across 12 matched markets; Polymarket US is within 1¢ of Kalshi on all four moneylines tonight, and the closest NBA near-miss is tomorrow's SAC-DAL at 2pp. Watch it live on the Arb Scanner and Kalshi vs Polymarket on NBA.

Game by game (Kalshi mid · tip ET)

Prop strikes are the Kalshi YES ask before the taker fee unless marked "fee included".

BOS @ ORL · 3:30 PM — BOS 71.5¢ / ORL 28.5¢; BOS -6.5 (53.5¢, $21,003 traded) and -7.5 (49.5¢); total 222.5 (Over 49.5¢ / Under 50.5¢).
Story: a 71¢ road favorite against a Magic team without its two best creators. Kalshi is cheapest on Under 220.5 (48.7¢ fee included vs 52.4¢).
Out: ORL — Banchero (right high ankle sprain), Suggs (right knee bone bruise), Jonathan Isaac, Izaiyah Nelson, Noah Penda. BOS — Devin Carter (illness), Mitchell Robinson (rest). Here's more on the injury news → Injury Report.
Who benefits, Banchero out: Goga Bitadze +12.0 min, +5.6 pts, +4.2 reb (42 games); Franz Wagner +3.2 min, +3.5 pts, +1.8 ast (30); Desmond Bane +2.1 min, +3.4 pts (10).
Who benefits, Suggs out: Jase Richardson +8.0 min, +4.3 pts (25, mostly with Wagner also out); Anthony Black +0.9 min, +1.4 pts (70); Wendell Carter Jr. +1.2 pts, +3.0% usage (68).
Props: Tatum ladder — 20+ pts 80¢, 25+ 59¢, 30+ 34¢, 35+ 19¢; Kalshi cheapest at 30+ (35.6¢ fee included vs 37.7¢). Tatum 6+ ast 66¢ (Kalshi cheapest 67.6¢ fee included). Franz 20+ pts 62¢, 25+ 34¢, 6+ ast 57¢ (Kalshi cheapest 58.7¢ fee included). Bane 20+ pts 50¢, 3+ 3PM 57¢, 4+ 3PM 38¢; his 2+ ast YES is 5.9¢ cheaper on Kalshi (85.9¢ fee included vs 91.8¢ at the best book). Black 15+ pts 44¢. No Bitadze or Richardson strike showed in our pull.

BKN @ IND · 5:00 PM — BKN 38.5¢ / IND 61.5¢; IND -3.5 (51.5¢) / BKN +3.5 (48.5¢); total 230.5 (Over 47.5¢ / Under 52.5¢), the highest on the board.
Story: Brooklyn is 0-5, Indiana 2-4 and missing its point guard and center. Kalshi is cheapest on Over 230.5 at 49.8¢ fee included (52.4¢ at the only book on the line).
Out: IND — Haliburton (left hamstring strain), Zubac (left ankle sprain), T.J. McConnell, Ben Sheppard, Johnny Furphy. BKN — Egor Demin (bone bruise), Mikel Brown Jr. (back management).
Questionable: Obi Toppin (low back soreness) — a fork until the 5 PM report. Here's more on the fork → Injury Report.
Who benefits, Haliburton out: Quenton Jackson +9.2 min, +5.2 pts, +3.7% usage (7 games, small sample); Jarace Walker +5.5 min, +3.0 pts (9); Aaron Nesmith +5.1 min, +2.7 pts, +0.7 3PM (6, small). The board carries no with/without splits for Zubac.
Props: Siakam 20+ pts 69¢, 25+ 41¢ (Kalshi cheapest 42.7¢ fee included), 30+ 20¢, 8+ reb 44¢ ($622). Randle 20+ pts 54¢ ($1,125), 25+ 28¢; his 10+ reb YES is the game's widest gap, 20.1¢ fee included vs 26¢ at the books (5.9¢), on almost no volume. Nembhard 20+ pts 43¢ (3.6¢ under the books), 25+ 18¢ (4.8¢ under), 10+ ast 45¢. Nesmith 2+ 3PM 57¢ ($974). Walker 10+ pts 51¢. The board also flags Michael Porter Jr. 2+ 3PM YES as 5.1¢ cheaper on Kalshi.

LAC @ GSW · 8:30 PM — LAC 45.5¢ / GSW 54.5¢; GSW -2.5 (49¢) / LAC +2.5 (51¢); total 221.5 (Over 48.5¢ / Under 51.5¢).
Story: a 54¢ home favorite with five rotation players out, against a Clippers team without three of its own. Kalshi and the books agree on every game line within 2¢.
Out: GSW — Stephen Curry (right knee management), Jimmy Butler III (ACL), Draymond Green (low back management), Kristaps Porzingis (not with team), Moses Moody (patellar tendon). LAC — Bradley Beal (knee management), Brandon Ingram (heel surgery), Max Strus (plantar fascia), Jordan Miller, Yanic Konan Niederhauser. Here's more on the injury news → Injury Report.
Who benefits, Curry out: Gui Santos +11.1 min, +6.9 pts, +6.7% usage (49 games); LJ Cryer +16.2 min, +7.5 pts, +1.7 3PM (15); Brandin Podziemski +4.7 min, +3.4 pts (49). Most of that sample is with Butler also out, as tonight.
Who benefits, Butler out: Santos +17.1 min, +10.3 pts, +1.1 3PM (41); De'Anthony Melton +3.3 min, +3.4 pts (33); Gary Payton II +3.9 min, +3.1 pts (41).
Who benefits, Porzingis out: Melton +6.5 pts, +1.1 3PM (11); Al Horford +4.7 min, +7.0 pts (7, small); Will Richard +2.5 min, +2.3 pts (8). Green has no splits on the board.
Props: Hachimura 15+ pts 57¢ ($4,300), 20+ 27¢; his rebound strikes are dearer on Kalshi (4+ reb 72¢ vs 68.6¢ at DraftKings). Darius Garland 8+ ast 44¢ ($516), 25+ pts 43¢. Podziemski 15+ pts 60¢, 20+ 31¢, 3+ 3PM 42¢ ($656); his 1+ 3PM YES is 5.6¢ cheaper on Kalshi (86.8¢ fee included vs 92.4¢). Brook Lopez 1+ 3PM 71¢ ask, 72.4¢ fee included, 6¢ under the best book. Melton 15+ pts 36¢. No Santos, Cryer or Payton strike showed in our pull.

TOR @ LAL · 9:00 PM — TOR 42.5¢ / LAL 56.5¢; LAL -2.5 (52.5¢) and -3.5 (47.5¢, $12,605 traded, Kalshi cheapest at 49.8¢ fee included); total 225.5 (Over 48.5¢ / Under 51.5¢).
Story: the night's biggest pool, lopsided toward the road dog — $337,235 on Toronto against $159,479 on the Lakers. Kalshi's Raptors price (44.7¢ fee included) is within 2¢ of the best book.
Out: TOR — Nate Bittle. LAL — nobody listed on the 1 PM report.
Props: Luka ladder — 25+ pts 83¢, 30+ 66¢, 35+ 42¢ ($1,402), 40+ 25¢, 45+ 12¢; Kalshi is cheapest at 40+ (26.3¢ fee included vs 30.5¢) and 45+ (12.7¢ vs 16.7¢), and 5.6¢ under the books at 35+. Luka 8+ ast 43¢, 5+ 3PM 46¢ ($565), 6+ 3PM 26¢ (Kalshi cheapest 27.4¢ fee included vs 31.7¢). Reaves 2+ 3PM 66¢ ($2,095), 25+ pts 39¢ (Kalshi cheapest 40.7¢ fee included). Barnes 25+ pts 43¢ ($576), 6+ reb 70¢ (4.7¢ under the books). Quickley 6+ ast 57¢ ($1,028), 20+ pts 34¢. Poeltl 10+ pts 29¢, 30.4¢ fee included vs 35.7¢. Murray-Boyles 1+ 3PM 45¢ — see the disagreements above.

Here's where the value is on the NBA prop ladder → Prop Price Board.

The DFS sprinkle

Minutes first. Projection is per-minute production times minutes, and tonight's minutes are moving in Orlando, Indiana and San Francisco: Bitadze (+12.0 min without Banchero, 42 games), Jase Richardson (+8.0 without Suggs, 25), Quenton Jackson (+9.2 without Haliburton, 7), Jarace Walker (+5.5, 9), Gui Santos (+17.1 without Butler, 41), LJ Cryer (+16.2 without Curry, 15). Here's more on who benefits → Injury Report.
Salaries lag roles. DraftKings prices catch up to a role change days late. Tonight's role changes are the beneficiaries above plus whoever Golden State starts in place of five rotation players; no salary page was readable for this slate, so check the DK sheet before you assume a price is cheap.
Lines before players. The highest total (BKN-IND 230.5) and the tightest spreads (GSW -2.5, LAL -2.5) are the targets. The biggest spread is BOS -6.5/-7.5 — blowout risk for Celtics starters' fourth quarters, but the Magic side still scores, and that's where the cheap minutes are.
Value chalk and stud leverage. Near-minimum players stepping into 25-30 minutes (Bitadze, Richardson, Jackson, Santos, Cryer) are the chalk you eat. In the stud tier, Luka (35+ pts at 42¢) and Tatum (30+ at 34¢) will carry the ownership; Siakam and Franz are the pivots. Player prices behind the salaries → Prop Price Board.
Build to swap. Lock is 3:30 PM ET for the DraftKings main slate (four games); FanDuel's main slate skips BOS-ORL and locks at 5:00 PM ET. Celtics and Magic in set slots, the 8:30 and 9:00 PM players in G/F/UTIL. The late decision: Obi Toppin (questionable, back) on the 5 PM report.
Rest watch. Nobody tonight played last night, but all eight teams play again tomorrow; late-game minutes in San Francisco and Los Angeles are the ones a coach shortens.
First month, be different. Roles are unknown and ownership is thin; an 0-5 Nets team and a Warriors team playing its ninth and tenth men are where the field is guessing too.
Sizing: run the price through the EV calculator, size with Kelly, and let the Kalshi fee calculator show what the taker fee does to a 42¢ contract. If you can't be at the computer from 3:30 PM through the 9 PM tip, play a smaller slate.

Housekeeping

The official injury report refreshes at 1 PM and 5 PM ET; the injury page shows who benefits from every absence, with the samples.
Tomorrow's notables on Kalshi: OKC @ CLE — OKC 39¢ / CLE 61¢; BOS @ HOU — BOS 39.5¢ / HOU 61.5¢, the Celtics on a back-to-back; MIL @ MIN — MIN 77¢.
How the contracts settle, postponements included → How Kalshi NBA contracts settle.
New to this: NBA prediction markets, explained and The questionable tag and who benefits.
The same boards answer inside Claude, ChatGPT and Cursor → The NBA desk inside AI apps.
Trade responsibly. The market is pricing all of this; you don't have to agree with it.

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Past 7 Oracles NBA Reports

Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets. Market information, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

7 Oracles NBA Report — frequently asked

What is Today's 7 Oracles NBA Report?

A daily read of the NBA slate on prediction markets: where the money is on Kalshi, where Kalshi and the other venues disagree on the same game or player line, game-by-game notes and a short DFS minutes read. It is market information — what the venues are pricing — so you can make your own call.

When does the report update?

Every game day at about 1:30 PM ET, right after the league's official 1 PM injury report, so the prices it quotes already reflect who is in and who is out. This page always shows the newest report; each day also keeps its own dated page in the archive.

Where do the prices come from?

Kalshi prices sit beside the same lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX — the same data as our NBA Prop Price Board and game-lines table. Every price carries a time stamp. Kalshi charges a trading fee on each fill, not on winnings: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, so it peaks at 1.75¢ per contract on a 50¢ contract and shrinks toward zero at the extremes. It is paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee. Resting (maker) orders pay no fee on most standard markets.

Is the report a pick?

No. It reports what the markets are pricing and where they disagree. The DFS notes are minutes reads from the injury report, not projections. The call is yours; trade responsibly.

Where are past reports?

Each day’s report has its own page at /nba/report/<date> — the archive list sits at the bottom of this page.