Polymarket US Bitcoin 15-Minute Up or Down

By Benny Ricciardi · part of the Polymarket US 15-minute board

Polymarket US lists Bitcoin (BTC) Up or Down markets on a 15-minute window. Each asks whether Bitcoin ends the window at or above its price to beat. Polymarket US is available in every state except Nevada. In our ledger, 49.3% of 4,083 windows from Sep 22, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026 settled Up. Information only, no picks. Not every market we cover is listed on Polymarket US.

Live window

Bitcoin 15-minute window on Polymarket USPolymarketPartner

Window

9:15 PM–9:30 PM ET

Up bid / ask

no current price

Price to beat

$80,660.48

Same window on Kalshi: YES 41.5¢ · target $80,660.48

See this window on Polymarket US →Sponsored by Polymarket US

Not every market we cover is listed on Polymarket US.

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Base rates

Every cell shows its number of windows; cells under 100 are greyed. Past results do not predict the next window.

Settled Up, by hour of the window's start (ET)

12 a.m.

55.2% n 172

1 a.m.

51.1% n 176

2 a.m.

51.7% n 172

3 a.m.

52.9% n 172

4 a.m.

50.6% n 172

5 a.m.

48.8% n 172

6 a.m.

49.3% n 152

7 a.m.

57.0% n 149

8 a.m.

43.0% n 172

9 a.m.

42.7% n 171

10 a.m.

49.4% n 172

11 a.m.

55.0% n 171

12 p.m.

41.4% n 169

1 p.m.

47.6% n 170

2 p.m.

45.0% n 169

3 p.m.

54.1% n 172

4 p.m.

51.7% n 172

5 p.m.

51.2% n 172

6 p.m.

50.6% n 172

7 p.m.

46.5% n 172

8 p.m.

45.5% n 176

9 p.m.

45.9% n 172

10 p.m.

51.2% n 172

11 p.m.

45.3% n 172

Settled Up, by weekday (ET)

Mon

47.2% n 566

Tue

50.8% n 592

Wed

46.8% n 660

Thu

48.8% n 541

Fri

46.0% n 568

Sat

54.3% n 576

Sun

51.0% n 580

The next window, after a run

After	1 in a row	2 in a row	3 in a row	4 in a row	5 in a row
Ups	48.5% n 2,007	48.2% n 971	48.1% n 468	48.9% n 225	56.4% n 110
Downs	49.9% n 2,065	50.3% n 1,033	50.8% n 512	49.4% n 251	46.0% n 126

Each cell is the share of next windows that settled Up. Runs count only back-to-back windows in our ledger.

Move size

Bitcoin: how far a window moves

Median 7.5 bp · 90th percentile 25.9 bp · n 4,063

0–1 bp380

1–2 bp318

2–5 bp800

5–10 bp957

10–20 bp954

20+ bp654

How it settles, in the market’s own words

This market will settle to Up if the Bitcoin price at 9:30PM ET on Nov 4, 2026 is greater than or equal to the price at 9:15PM ET on Nov 4, 2026. Otherwise, this market will settle to Down. Outcome sourced from CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), available at https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI. The price at the beginning and at the end of the time range is determined the same way: in the last minute before each of those two times, 60 BRTI prices are collected. The official value for that time is the simple average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. Please note that this market is about the price according to CF Benchmarks' BRTI, not according to other sources or spot markets.

The Bitcoin market on Polymarket US →Sponsored by Polymarket US

Not every market we cover is listed on Polymarket US.

Signing up: Polymarket US sign-up code.

Bitcoin in other windows

Bitcoin 15-minute markets — frequently asked

What is the Bitcoin 15-minute Up or Down market on Polymarket US?

A Polymarket US market that asks whether Bitcoin (BTC) ends a 15-minute window at or above its price to beat. Each market's Polymarket US page carries its own settlement text, quoted on this page.

How often does Bitcoin finish a 15-minute window Up?

In our ledger, 49.3% of 4,083 Bitcoin 15-minute windows settled Up, from Sep 22, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026. Past results describe what happened; they do not predict the next window.

How far does Bitcoin move in 15 minutes?

The median Bitcoin window moved 7.5 bp between its start and end values, and one in ten moved more than 25.9 bp, over 4,063 windows. A basis point is a hundredth of a percent.

Do 15-minute bitcoin windows run in streaks?

After three straight bitcoin Ups, the next window settled Up 48.1% of the time (n 468); after three straight Downs, 50.8% (n 512). Runs count only back-to-back windows in our ledger.

Does Kalshi list a Bitcoin 15-minute market?

Yes, the KXBTC15M series. Kalshi and Polymarket US are separate exchanges with their own rules. Where the two windows close at the same minute with the same target, the live row here shows Kalshi's beside it, for information.

What does it cost to trade a 15-minute window?

Polymarket US: Taker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100, about 1.74¢ a contract at 50¢. Kalshi: 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, about 1.75¢ at 50¢. Both are charged at the fill, win or lose, before the spread.

Where do the prices on this page come from?

The live row reads the Polymarket US public gateway and shows the time of each read; a price more than 60 seconds old reads “no current price.” Results come from each closed market.

Where is Polymarket US available?

Polymarket US is available in every state except Nevada. Not available in all jurisdictions. State by state: predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-legal-us.