World Cup 2026 Simulation: 10,000 Tournament Runs Reveal Who Actually Wins
We ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Here's what the data says about every team's real chances — and where the market has it wrong.
By The 7 Oracles at PredictionMarketsPicks.com · Live model · updated
Quick Answer
As of June 27, 2026, our 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation gives France 21.8%, Spain 13.7%, and Argentina 13.1% to win the 2026 World Cup — below what the market prices the favorites at, because a 48-team knockout is brutally high-variance. The biggest edges aren’t the outright winner; they’re the advancement, semifinal-reach, and group-stage prop markets.
The 2026 World Cup is the biggest sporting event in history. 48 teams, 104 matches, and billions of dollars in trading volume across Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel, and every oddsboard on the planet.
Everyone has opinions. We have data.
Our analytics team built a Monte Carlo tournament simulation that uses Elo-tier team strength ratings, Poisson goal-scoring distributions, and full bracket modeling to simulate every possible path through the tournament — 10,000 times.
The Top 10: Who Wins the World Cup?
Here's what 10,000 simulations say about the tournament favorites:
| # | Team | Odds | Sim Win % | QF % | SF % | Final % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | +359 | 21.8% | 62.3% | 45.5% | 31.6% |
| 2 | Spain | +630 | 13.7% | 52.6% | 35.5% | 22.9% |
| 3 | Argentina | +663 | 13.1% | 51.4% | 34.6% | 22% |
| 4 | Brazil | +1289 | 7.2% | 42.6% | 25.1% | 14% |
| 5 | England | +1438 | 6.5% | 41.7% | 24.2% | 13.3% |
| 6 | Germany | +1513 | 6.2% | 41.5% | 23.4% | 12.5% |
| 7 | Portugal | +1513 | 6.2% | 40% | 22.7% | 12.4% |
| 8 | Netherlands | +1787 | 5.3% | 40.8% | 22.7% | 11.6% |
| 9 | Japan | +3348 | 2.9% | 31.7% | 15.4% | 7.1% |
| 10 | Belgium | +3746 | 2.6% | 29.4% | 13.7% | 6.1% |
The headline: France’s 21.8% win probability gives them the lead — Spain (13.7%) and Argentina (13.1%) round out the top three, with the gap between the favorite and the chasing pack wider than the odds suggest. In a 48-team knockout tournament, variance is king — and our simulation captures that reality.
The Key Insight: Favorites Are Overpriced
Our simulation consistently produces lower win probabilities for the top teams than the market implies. Single-elimination knockout tournaments are chaotic. The best team wins the World Cup far less often than markets price in.
The outright winner market is the worst place to bet for expected value. The advancement, semifinal reach, and group-stage prop markets are where our simulation identifies the biggest edges.
3 High-Conviction Plays From the Simulation
Play #1
England Semifinal at Plus-Money
Our sim gives England a 36.6% probability of reaching the semifinals — England's SF probability ticked up materially in the latest May 2026 run. Tuchel's knockout pedigree, the tournament's deepest squad, and a manageable Group L path make this the single best futures play available.
Play #2
Japan to Top Group F
Japan has a 22.7% probability of winning Group F in our simulation — and they beat both Germany and Spain in the 2022 group stage. The market still systematically underprices Asian teams in World Cup groups.
Play #3
Spain Group Stage Overs
Spain averaged 3.1 goals per game in Euro 2024 group play. Our sim projects them for 5.7 total goals across the tournament, and Group H opponents (Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde) offer minimal defensive resistance.
| # | Team | Grp | Odds | Win % | QF % | SF % | Final % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | I | +359 | 21.8% | 62.3% | 45.5% | 31.6% |
| 2 | Spain | H | +630 | 13.7% | 52.6% | 35.5% | 22.9% |
| 3 | Argentina | J | +663 | 13.1% | 51.4% | 34.6% | 22% |
| 4 | Brazil | C | +1289 | 7.2% | 42.6% | 25.1% | 14% |
| 5 | England | L | +1438 | 6.5% | 41.7% | 24.2% | 13.3% |
| 6 | Germany | E | +1513 | 6.2% | 41.5% | 23.4% | 12.5% |
| 7 | Portugal | K | +1513 | 6.2% | 40% | 22.7% | 12.4% |
| 8 | Netherlands | F | +1787 | 5.3% | 40.8% | 22.7% | 11.6% |
| 9 | Japan | F | +3348 | 2.9% | 31.7% | 15.4% | 7.1% |
| 10 | Belgium | G | +3746 | 2.6% | 29.4% | 13.7% | 6.1% |
| 11 | Morocco | C | +4662 | 2.1% | 28.4% | 13.9% | 5.8% |
| 12 | Switzerland | B | +5782 | 1.7% | 27.3% | 12.1% | 4.9% |
| 13 | Colombia | K | +6150 | 1.6% | 25.7% | 11.1% | 4.4% |
| 14 | Mexico | A | +7592 | 1.3% | 23.3% | 9.8% | 3.6% |
| 15 | united-states | D | +8233 | 1.2% | 23.4% | 9.3% | 3.6% |
| 16 | Norway | I | +9900 | 1% | 24% | 9.8% | 3.3% |
| 17 | Senegal | I | +9900 | 1% | 21.4% | 8.8% | 3% |
| 18 | Ecuador | E | +11011 | 0.9% | 20% | 8% | 2.8% |
| 19 | Côte d'Ivoire | E | +14186 | 0.7% | 19.3% | 7.6% | 2.5% |
| 20 | Canada | B | +19900 | 0.5% | 16.4% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| 21 | Croatia | L | +19900 | 0.5% | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.8% |
| 22 | Egypt | G | +19900 | 0.5% | 17.6% | 6.2% | 2% |
| 23 | Austria | J | +24900 | 0.4% | 14.2% | 4.8% | 1.3% |
| 24 | Iran | G | +24900 | 0.4% | 12.6% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| 25 | Sweden | F | +24900 | 0.4% | 17.8% | 6% | 1.6% |
| 26 | Australia | D | +33233 | 0.3% | 13.6% | 4.6% | 1.3% |
| 27 | Algeria | J | +99900 | 0.1% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 28 | Ghana | L | +99900 | 0.1% | 7.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| 29 | Korea Republic | A | +99900 | 0.1% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 30 | Paraguay | D | +99900 | 0.1% | 8.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| 31 | bosnia | B | N/A | 0% | 6.2% | 1% | 0.1% |
| 32 | Cape Verde | H | N/A | 0% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 33 | Curaçao | E | N/A | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 34 | Czechia | A | N/A | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 35 | DR Congo | K | N/A | 0% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 36 | Haiti | C | N/A | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 37 | Iraq | I | N/A | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 38 | Jordan | J | N/A | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 39 | New Zealand | G | N/A | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 40 | Panama | L | N/A | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 41 | Qatar | B | N/A | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 42 | Saudi Arabia | H | N/A | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 43 | Scotland | C | N/A | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 44 | South Africa | A | N/A | 0% | 5.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 45 | Tunisia | F | N/A | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 46 | Türkiye | D | N/A | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 47 | Uruguay | H | N/A | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 48 | Uzbekistan | K | N/A | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |