{"source":"PredictionMarketsPicks.com — Free to use with attribution","attribution":"Data: Kalshi, Polymarket (international book) and a CME fed funds futures implied probability. Link to https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker#record when you use it.","toolUrl":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker#record","mcp":{"url":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=feed","tool":"fed_rate_odds"},"notices":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker?utm_source=fed_feed&utm_medium=api&utm_campaign=change_notices#api","rule":"Each venue’s close on its last UTC day before the decision, on the outcome that happened. Highest is closest; within 1 point is a tie.","sourceNote":"live = daily capture (Aug 30, 2026 onward); exchange_history = reconstructed from the venue’s own public price archive. A missing futures row is a late-month meeting the inversion cannot rebuild from free data — never 0.","decisions":14,"csvUrl":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/public/fed-divergence?view=record&format=csv","rows":[{"meeting_date":"2025-01-29","meeting":"Jan 28–29, 2025","decision":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.995,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2025-01-29","meeting":"Jan 28–29, 2025","decision":"HOLD","venue":"polymarket","probability":0.987,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2025-03-19","meeting":"Mar 18–19, 2025","decision":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.995,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (all three)"},{"meeting_date":"2025-03-19","meeting":"Mar 18–19, 2025","decision":"HOLD","venue":"polymarket","probability":0.992,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (all three)"},{"meeting_date":"2025-03-19","meeting":"Mar 18–19, 2025","decision":"HOLD","venue":"futures","probability":1,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (all three)"},{"meeting_date":"2025-05-07","meeting":"May 6–7, 2025","decision":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.965,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Polymarket/Futures)"},{"meeting_date":"2025-05-07","meeting":"May 6–7, 2025","decision":"HOLD","venue":"polymarket","probability":0.9805,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Polymarket/Futures)"},{"meeting_date":"2025-05-07","meeting":"May 6–7, 2025","decision":"HOLD","venue":"futures","probability":0.9871,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Polymarket/Futures)"},{"meeting_date":"2025-06-18","meeting":"Jun 17–18, 2025","decision":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.975,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Futures"},{"meeting_date":"2025-06-18","meeting":"Jun 17–18, 2025","decision":"HOLD","venue":"polymarket","probability":0.9835,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Futures"},{"meeting_date":"2025-06-18","meeting":"Jun 17–18, 2025","decision":"HOLD","venue":"futures","probability":1,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Futures"},{"meeting_date":"2025-07-30","meeting":"Jul 29–30, 2025","decision":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.975,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2025-07-30","meeting":"Jul 29–30, 2025","decision":"HOLD","venue":"polymarket","probability":0.9795,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2025-09-17","meeting":"Sep 16–17, 2025","decision":"CUT-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.935,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Futures"},{"meeting_date":"2025-09-17","meeting":"Sep 16–17, 2025","decision":"CUT-25","venue":"polymarket","probability":0.925,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Futures"},{"meeting_date":"2025-09-17","meeting":"Sep 16–17, 2025","decision":"CUT-25","venue":"futures","probability":1,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Futures"},{"meeting_date":"2025-10-29","meeting":"Oct 28–29, 2025","decision":"CUT-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.985,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2025-10-29","meeting":"Oct 28–29, 2025","decision":"CUT-25","venue":"polymarket","probability":0.9805,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2025-12-10","meeting":"Dec 9–10, 2025","decision":"CUT-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.965,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2025-12-10","meeting":"Dec 9–10, 2025","decision":"CUT-25","venue":"polymarket","probability":0.9685,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2025-12-10","meeting":"Dec 9–10, 2025","decision":"CUT-25","venue":"futures","probability":0.9447,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2026-01-28","meeting":"Jan 27–28, 2026","decision":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.985,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2026-01-28","meeting":"Jan 27–28, 2026","decision":"HOLD","venue":"polymarket","probability":0.9945,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2026-03-18","meeting":"Mar 17–18, 2026","decision":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.995,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2026-03-18","meeting":"Mar 17–18, 2026","decision":"HOLD","venue":"polymarket","probability":0.9945,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2026-03-18","meeting":"Mar 17–18, 2026","decision":"HOLD","venue":"futures","probability":0.9761,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2026-04-29","meeting":"Apr 28–29, 2026","decision":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.995,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2026-04-29","meeting":"Apr 28–29, 2026","decision":"HOLD","venue":"polymarket","probability":0.9975,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2026-06-17","meeting":"Jun 16–17, 2026","decision":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.995,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2026-06-17","meeting":"Jun 16–17, 2026","decision":"HOLD","venue":"polymarket","probability":0.9955,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2026-06-17","meeting":"Jun 16–17, 2026","decision":"HOLD","venue":"futures","probability":0.9307,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)"},{"meeting_date":"2026-07-29","meeting":"Jul 28–29, 2026","decision":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.745,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Polymarket"},{"meeting_date":"2026-07-29","meeting":"Jul 28–29, 2026","decision":"HOLD","venue":"polymarket","probability":0.769,"source":"exchange_history","closest":"Polymarket"},{"meeting_date":"2026-09-16","meeting":"Sep 15–16, 2026","decision":"HIKE-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.865,"source":"live","closest":"Futures"},{"meeting_date":"2026-09-16","meeting":"Sep 15–16, 2026","decision":"HIKE-25","venue":"polymarket","probability":0.885,"source":"live","closest":"Futures"},{"meeting_date":"2026-09-16","meeting":"Sep 15–16, 2026","decision":"HIKE-25","venue":"futures","probability":0.9429,"source":"live","closest":"Futures"}]}