{"source":"PredictionMarketsPicks.com — Free to use with attribution","attribution":"Data: Kalshi, Polymarket (international book) and a CME fed funds futures implied probability, captured daily by predictionmarketspicks.com. Link to https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker/divergence when you use it.","toolUrl":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker/divergence","docsUrl":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker/divergence#use-this-data","meeting":{"date":"2026-09-16","label":"Sep 15–16, 2026","slug":"september-2026","decision":null},"basis":"per_meeting","basisNote":"Only venues pricing the decision AT this meeting are included. Kalshi’s KXFED prices a cumulative rate level for any meeting past the next one, so it appears here only for the next meeting; comparing across bases manufactures up to 35pp of divergence that is not edge.","venueLabels":{"kalshi":"Kalshi","polymarket":"Polymarket","futures":"CME fed funds futures implied"},"outcomes":["CUT-50","CUT-25","HOLD","HIKE-25","HIKE-50"],"venues":["kalshi","futures","polymarket"],"coverage":{"firstDay":"2026-08-15","lastDay":"2026-09-10","days":27,"rows":231},"note":"probability is each venue’s daily close as an implied probability in [0,1]. A missing (venue, outcome, day) is no price, never 0 — the futures venue cannot express a 50bp outcome at all.","csvUrl":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/public/fed-divergence?meeting=2026-09-16&format=csv","series":[{"day":"2026-08-15","outcome":"CUT-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0},{"day":"2026-08-15","outcome":"CUT-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-15","outcome":"HIKE-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.26},{"day":"2026-08-15","outcome":"HIKE-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-15","outcome":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.73},{"day":"2026-08-16","outcome":"CUT-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0},{"day":"2026-08-16","outcome":"CUT-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-16","outcome":"HIKE-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.25},{"day":"2026-08-16","outcome":"HIKE-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-16","outcome":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.74},{"day":"2026-08-17","outcome":"CUT-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-17","outcome":"CUT-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-17","outcome":"HIKE-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.3},{"day":"2026-08-17","outcome":"HIKE-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-17","outcome":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.69},{"day":"2026-08-18","outcome":"CUT-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-18","outcome":"CUT-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-18","outcome":"HIKE-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.29},{"day":"2026-08-18","outcome":"HIKE-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-18","outcome":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.7},{"day":"2026-08-19","outcome":"CUT-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0},{"day":"2026-08-19","outcome":"CUT-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-19","outcome":"HIKE-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.27},{"day":"2026-08-19","outcome":"HIKE-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-19","outcome":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.72},{"day":"2026-08-20","outcome":"CUT-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0},{"day":"2026-08-20","outcome":"CUT-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-20","outcome":"HIKE-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.28},{"day":"2026-08-20","outcome":"HIKE-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-20","outcome":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.71},{"day":"2026-08-21","outcome":"CUT-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0},{"day":"2026-08-21","outcome":"CUT-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-21","outcome":"HIKE-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.32},{"day":"2026-08-21","outcome":"HIKE-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-21","outcome":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.67},{"day":"2026-08-22","outcome":"CUT-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0},{"day":"2026-08-22","outcome":"CUT-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-22","outcome":"HIKE-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.3},{"day":"2026-08-22","outcome":"HIKE-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-22","outcome":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.69},{"day":"2026-08-23","outcome":"CUT-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0},{"day":"2026-08-23","outcome":"CUT-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-23","outcome":"HIKE-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.33},{"day":"2026-08-23","outcome":"HIKE-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-23","outcome":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.66},{"day":"2026-08-24","outcome":"CUT-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0},{"day":"2026-08-24","outcome":"CUT-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-24","outcome":"HIKE-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.33},{"day":"2026-08-24","outcome":"HIKE-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-24","outcome":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.66},{"day":"2026-08-25","outcome":"CUT-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0},{"day":"2026-08-25","outcome":"CUT-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-25","outcome":"HIKE-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.34},{"day":"2026-08-25","outcome":"HIKE-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-25","outcome":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.65},{"day":"2026-08-26","outcome":"CUT-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0},{"day":"2026-08-26","outcome":"CUT-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-26","outcome":"HIKE-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.33},{"day":"2026-08-26","outcome":"HIKE-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-26","outcome":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.66},{"day":"2026-08-27","outcome":"CUT-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0},{"day":"2026-08-27","outcome":"CUT-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-27","outcome":"HIKE-25","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.3},{"day":"2026-08-27","outcome":"HIKE-50","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.01},{"day":"2026-08-27","outcome":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi"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