Fed Rate Prediction Market — Historical Accuracy Record
How well did Kalshi prediction markets forecast Federal Reserve rate decisions? This is a citable primary source — all data is sourced from Kalshi contract prices and official FOMC announcements.
0
Meetings resolved
—
Correct calls
8
Remaining in 2026
2026 Resolved Meetings
No meetings resolved yet — tracking begins at the next FOMC decision.
The first 2026 FOMC meeting was Jan 28–29, 2026.
Upcoming 2026 Meetings
Methodology
Accuracy is defined as: the Kalshi market-implied dominant outcome (highest probability outcome 24 hours before the meeting) matches the Fed's actual decision. A cut-25 prediction is correct if the Fed cuts 25bp. It is incorrect if the Fed cuts 50bp (even though both are cuts) — this strict definition is more useful for trading.
Data is sourced from Kalshi contract prices and official FOMC press releases. All snapshots are timestamped and stored in the fed_rate_markets table. This page serves as a citable primary source for researchers studying prediction market accuracy on monetary policy.
Academic Context
The academic literature on prediction market accuracy for monetary policy is limited. Key references: Gurkaynak, Sack & Swanson (2005) on macro surprises and asset prices; Nakamura & Steinsson (2018) on Fed information effects. This dataset contributes specifically to the Kalshi/binary-contract subset of that literature.