Fed Rate Prediction Market β Historical Accuracy Record
How well did Kalshi prediction markets forecast Federal Reserve rate decisions? This is a citable primary source β all data is sourced from Kalshi contract prices and official FOMC announcements.
Who called it: every 2026 Fed decision vs. the prediction markets
Each venue's final price on the outcome that happened, from its last day before the announcement. Highest is closest.
| Meeting | Decision | Kalshi | Polymarket | Futures | Closest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27β28, 2026 | HOLD | not archived | not archived | not archived | β |
| Mar 17β18, 2026 | HOLD | not archived | not archived | not archived | β |
| Apr 28β29, 2026 | HOLD | not archived | not archived | not archived | β |
| Jun 16β17, 2026 | HOLD | 98% | not archived | not archived | β |
| Jul 28β29, 2026 | HOLD | 72% | not archived | not archived | β |
| Sep 15β16, 2026 | HIKE 25 | 87% | 89% | 94% | Futures |
The three-venue archive starts Aug. 15, 2026; earlier meetings carry Kalshi's final only where a pre-decision snapshot was kept. Oct 27β28, 2026 is next β the daily three-venue series is building now.
6
Meetings resolved
3 of 3
Correct calls (100%)
10
Remaining in 2026
6 meetings resolved Β· 3 gradable. A meeting is gradable only if we hold its final pre-decision Kalshi ladder; 3 predate the permanent archive and are no longer retrievable, so they are shown as β rather than counted as a miss.
2026 Resolved Meetings
| Meeting | Decision | Market Implied | Correct? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27β28, 2026 | HOLD | β | β |
| Mar 17β18, 2026 | HOLD | β | β |
| Apr 28β29, 2026 | HOLD | β | β |
| Jun 16β17, 2026 | HOLD | HOLD | β |
| Jul 28β29, 2026 | HOLD | HOLD | β |
| Sep 15β16, 2026 | HIKE 25 | HIKE 25 | β |
Upcoming 2026 Meetings
Next up is Oct 27β28. The September 2026 hike piece grades what Kalshi, Polymarket and futures priced into the last one, and which was closest.
Methodology
Accuracy is defined as: the Kalshi market-implied favorite in the last polling cycle before 18:00 UTC on decision day (the 2:00 PM ET announcement) matches the Fed's actual decision. A cut-25 prediction is correct if the Fed cuts 25bp. It is incorrect if the Fed cuts 50bp (even though both are cuts) β this strict definition is more useful for trading, and it is the exact rule the table above applies.
Data is sourced from Kalshi contract prices and official FOMC press releases. At each decision-day boundary the final pre-decision ladder is copied into a permanent, immutable archive (fed_rate_final_snapshots) β one row per meeting per outcome, never rewritten. The live table behind it keeps only a rolling 7-day window, so before that archive existed a graded meeting expired roughly five weeks after it was earned.
The January, March and April 2026 meetings predate the archive and their market data is no longer retrievable from Kalshi, so they are reported as ungraded (β) rather than counted as missed calls. June and July 2026 were reconstructed from Kalshi's per-strike price history for the final trading hours before each announcement β never from settlement values, which would grade the market against the answer. Every meeting from September 2026 onward is archived live. This page serves as a citable primary source for researchers studying prediction market accuracy on monetary policy.
Academic Context
The academic literature on prediction market accuracy for monetary policy is limited. Key references: Gurkaynak, Sack & Swanson (2005) on macro surprises and asset prices; Nakamura & Steinsson (2018) on Fed information effects. This dataset contributes specifically to the Kalshi/binary-contract subset of that literature.
β Back to Fed Rate Tracker Β· Cross-market divergence β which venue has been right β