Macro Pulse
A single 0–100 score for US macroeconomic health — blended from 11 FRED series across six categories. Refreshed daily.
Quick Answer
Macro Pulse is a single 0–100 score for US macroeconomic health, recomputed daily from 11 FRED series across growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, and sentiment. The score maps to five regimes — from Recession Watch to Expansion — so you can read the macro backdrop at a glance.
Most macro “dashboards” throw twenty charts at you and call it analysis. The Macro Pulse collapses eleven FRED series across six categories into one honest number — and tells you which of five regimes the economy is in, from Recession Watch to Expansion. It's the view a desk runs before any market call: where are we, in one number?
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What is the Macro Pulse?
A composite 0–100 score representing US macroeconomic health. It blends eleven FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) series across six categories: growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, and sentiment. Each component scores in [0, 1] via transparent piecewise-linear ramps; categories average equally, then collapse into one final number.
The five regimes
- Recession Watch (0–25) — multiple categories deteriorating, late-cycle stress.
- Risk Off (26–45) — defensive posture warranted, growth or labor cracking.
- Neutral (46–65) — mixed signals, no clear directional read.
- Risk On (66–85) — broad strength, supportive macro tailwind.
- Expansion (86–100) — peak conditions, all six categories firing.
Why a single number?
Because the alternative is staring at a dashboard. A composite forces an actual read — is the macro tailwind there or not? The components are all visible underneath, so you can tell at a glance what's pulling the score up or down. No black box.
How to use it for trades
Pair Macro Pulse with the live prediction-market trackers. When the Pulse drops into Recession Watch but Kalshi's NBER recession contract is pricing under 30%, that's a divergence worth investigating. When the Pulse runs hot into Expansion territory but Fed cut probabilities are rich, the curve is telling you a different story than the data.
Embed and free public API
Hit the Embed button above for a free iframe. The widget auto-refreshes daily — no maintenance. JSON+CSV data is also available at /api/public/macro-pulse (60 req/hr/IP, attribution required).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Macro Pulse score?
Macro Pulse is a single 0–100 score for US economic health, recomputed daily from 11 FRED series across six categories — growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, and sentiment. A higher number means a healthier macro backdrop; the score above shows today’s reading.
How are the five macro regimes defined?
The 0–100 score maps to five regimes — Recession Watch, Risk Off, Neutral, Risk On, and Expansion — running low to high across the meter above. Each band summarizes where growth, inflation, liquidity, and sentiment sit relative to their historical ranges, so you can read the macro backdrop at a glance.
How often does the Macro Pulse update?
Daily. Each FRED series is re-pulled and the composite is recomputed whenever new data posts, so the score always reflects the latest released figures. The “updated” timestamp on the card shows the last refresh.
How does the macro backdrop affect prediction markets?
The regime is the tape every rate, inflation, and recession contract trades against. A Risk Off pulse tends to line up with higher Fed-cut probabilities and softer equity-index contracts on Kalshi — read the composite score first, then price the individual market.
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