Macro Pulse

Most macro “dashboards” throw twenty charts at you and call it analysis. The Macro Pulse collapses eleven FRED series across six categories into one honest number — and tells you which of five regimes the economy is in, from Recession Watch to Expansion. It's the view a desk runs before any market call: where are we, in one number?

What is the Macro Pulse?

A composite 0–100 score representing US macroeconomic health. It blends eleven FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) series across six categories: growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, and sentiment. Each component scores in [0, 1] via transparent piecewise-linear ramps; categories average equally, then collapse into one final number.

The five regimes

• Recession Watch (0–25) — multiple categories deteriorating, late-cycle stress.
• Risk Off (26–45) — defensive posture warranted, growth or labor cracking.
• Neutral (46–65) — mixed signals, no clear directional read.
• Risk On (66–85) — broad strength, supportive macro tailwind.
• Expansion (86–100) — peak conditions, all six categories firing.

Why a single number?

Because the alternative is staring at a dashboard. A composite forces an actual read — is the macro tailwind there or not? The components are all visible underneath, so you can tell at a glance what's pulling the score up or down. No black box.

How to use it for trades

Pair Macro Pulse with the live prediction-market trackers. When the Pulse drops into Recession Watch but Kalshi's NBER recession contract is pricing under 30%, that's a divergence worth investigating. When the Pulse runs hot into Expansion territory but Fed cut probabilities are rich, the curve is telling you a different story than the data.

Embed and free public API

Hit the Embed button above for a free iframe. The widget auto-refreshes daily — no maintenance. JSON+CSV data is also available at /api/public/macro-pulse (60 req/hr/IP, attribution required).