{"slug":"recession-tracker","title":"US Recession Probability Gauge","description":"Live market-implied probability of a US recession from Kalshi NBER contracts. Updates every 5 minutes.","category":"pmkt","updated_at":"2026-09-09T12:00:05.664Z","data":[{"outcome":"Recession 2027","probability":0.24,"volume_24h":11429,"price_change_24h":null,"source":"kalshi","snapshot_at":"2026-09-09T12:00:05.664Z"},{"outcome":"Recession 2026","probability":0.04,"volume_24h":2852,"price_change_24h":null,"source":"kalshi","snapshot_at":"2026-09-09T12:00:05.664Z"},{"outcome":"Q1 2026","probability":0.012,"volume_24h":0,"price_change_24h":null,"source":"kalshi","snapshot_at":"2026-09-09T12:00:05.664Z"},{"outcome":"Q4 2025","probability":0.003,"volume_24h":0,"price_change_24h":null,"source":"kalshi","snapshot_at":"2026-09-09T12:00:05.664Z"},{"outcome":"Q3 2025","probability":0.006,"volume_24h":0,"price_change_24h":null,"source":"kalshi","snapshot_at":"2026-09-09T12:00:05.664Z"},{"outcome":"Q2 2025","probability":0.03,"volume_24h":0,"price_change_24h":null,"source":"kalshi","snapshot_at":"2026-09-09T12:00:05.664Z"},{"outcome":"Q4 2024","probability":0.01,"volume_24h":0,"price_change_24h":null,"source":"kalshi","snapshot_at":"2026-09-09T12:00:05.664Z"},{"outcome":"Q1 2025","probability":0.001,"volume_24h":0,"price_change_24h":null,"source":"kalshi","snapshot_at":"2026-09-09T12:00:05.664Z"}]}