{"slug":"recession-tracker","title":"US Recession Probability Gauge","description":"Live market-implied probability of a US recession from Kalshi NBER contracts. Updates every 5 minutes.","section":"macro","updated_at":"2026-10-26T00:00:04.594Z","data":[{"outcome":"Recession 2027","probability":0.2,"volume_24h":15019,"price_change_24h":null,"source":"kalshi","snapshot_at":"2026-10-26T00:00:04.594Z"},{"outcome":"Recession 2026","probability":0.05,"volume_24h":16804,"price_change_24h":null,"source":"kalshi","snapshot_at":"2026-10-26T00:00:04.594Z"},{"outcome":"Q1 2026","probability":0.039,"volume_24h":7,"price_change_24h":null,"source":"kalshi","snapshot_at":"2026-10-26T00:00:04.594Z"},{"outcome":"Q4 2025","probability":0.006,"volume_24h":0,"price_change_24h":null,"source":"kalshi","snapshot_at":"2026-10-26T00:00:04.594Z"},{"outcome":"Q3 2025","probability":0.001,"volume_24h":0,"price_change_24h":null,"source":"kalshi","snapshot_at":"2026-10-26T00:00:04.594Z"},{"outcome":"Q2 2025","probability":0.001,"volume_24h":0,"price_change_24h":null,"source":"kalshi","snapshot_at":"2026-10-26T00:00:04.594Z"},{"outcome":"Q4 2024","probability":0.002,"volume_24h":0,"price_change_24h":null,"source":"kalshi","snapshot_at":"2026-10-26T00:00:04.594Z"},{"outcome":"Q1 2025","probability":0.001,"volume_24h":0,"price_change_24h":null,"source":"kalshi","snapshot_at":"2026-10-26T00:00:04.594Z"}]}