PFL's first U.S. card since August lands on Friday, October 16 at Wintrust Arena, and it's built on two rematches. Liz Carmouche and Jena Bishop fight for the first PFL Women's Flyweight World Championship, and Timur Khizriev returns from two years out against the man he barely beat. The full card, with the tale of the tape and a price slot on every bout, is on the PFL Chicago card page. New to reading prices as probabilities? Start with the PFL prediction markets guide.
> Where the odds stand (Thursday, October 1): no book and no exchange has priced PFL Chicago yet. We don't publish a price that doesn't exist. This page and the card page update the day the first line posts. Until then, here's everything the line will be built on.
Carmouche vs. Bishop 2: the first one wasn't close, until it nearly was
Liz Carmouche (26-8) vs. Jena Bishop (11-3), five rounds, for the vacant title.
They met on August 15, 2025, in the PFL World Tournament final in Charlotte. Bishop is a decorated jiu-jitsu competitor, and she spent the second round hunting an armbar and a triangle from her back. Carmouche, a former Bellator champion and UFC title challenger, defended both. In the third she landed a right hand that put Bishop on her back and finished with hammerfists at 2:56.
Both won in San Diego on June 27, by submission: Carmouche choked out Viviane Araújo in the second as a -265 favorite, and Bishop armbarred Ariane Lipski in the first as a -138 favorite.
That's the case for each side in one fight. Carmouche has 34 pro fights to Bishop's 14, and she's already finished her once. Bishop's path is the one she nearly found the first time: take it to the mat and win it there. Five rounds instead of three gives her more time to find it.
What to watch when the line opens: how short the books make Carmouche. The first fight ended in a finish, but Bishop had real submission looks before it did. A tight line would mean the market thinks five rounds favors the grappler. A wide one would mean it's paying for the knockout.
Khizriev vs. Braga 2: 18-0, and two years away
Timur Khizriev (18-0) vs. Gabriel Braga (17-3), featherweight co-main.
Khizriev beat Braga by split decision in the 2024 playoffs, then took the featherweight world title from Brendan Loughnane over five rounds. He hasn't fought since. PFL says a violent attack left him needing surgery and a long recovery. Braga stayed active and stayed near the top of the division while it turned over around him.
That's the most interesting price on the card before it exists. An unbeaten champion off a two-year layoff, against the only opponent who has taken a judge from him. The first fight was a split, so the true gap between them was thin on the night. A layoff is a real variable. Expect Khizriev to open as the favorite anyway, because unbeaten records carry a premium on every board.
The rest of the main card (11 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
- Bantamweight: #6 Sarvarjon Khamidov (17-1) vs. Rafael do Nascimento (13-3). Both won here this summer. Khamidov finished Justin Wetzell in San Diego as a -390 favorite. Do Nascimento was a +225 underdog in Austin and submitted Lewis McGrillen (-290) in the second round. That's the biggest favorite to lose in any of these 14 fighters' 2026 bouts.
- Welterweight: Oualy Tandia (5-0) vs. JP Saint Louis (12-5). Unbeaten against seventeen fights of experience.
- Light heavyweight: #9 Emiliano Sordi (26-14-1) vs. Abraham Bably (8-3). Bably was a -205 favorite in San Diego and lost by second-round TKO to Rob Wilkinson.
The prelims (6 p.m. ET, ESPN App)
- Lightweight: Gamid Khizriev (5-0) vs. Michael Boylan (6-1)
- Women's flyweight: #10 Shannon Clark (8-1) vs. Lucero Acosta (6-2)
- Lightweight: Cassio Barao (10-1-1) vs. Kevin Pease (8-0)
- Welterweight: #8 Eliezer Kubanza (9-1) vs. Trey Waters (10-2)
- Bantamweight: Cobey Fehr (4-0) vs. Rosario Romero (4-0)
- Women's flyweight: #5 Paulina Wisniewska (7-1) vs. Chelsea Hackett (5-3-1)
- Featherweight: Noah Hermosillo (1-0) vs. Caden Cox (2-0)
- Women's strawweight: Benita van Rooij (7-2) vs. Giuliany Perea (5-1)
- Lightweight: Levan Khabalaev (5-0) vs. Morquez Forest (8-2)
The niche inside the niche: we've already priced 14 of these fighters
Fourteen of the 28 fighters on this card, both main-eventers included, fought on a PFL card we covered this summer, and every one of those bouts is graded on its card page. That's a record of how the books read these fighters, and how it turned out.
| Fighter | Last time out | Reference line | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liz Carmouche | San Diego, Jun 27 | -265 | Won, submission R2 |
| Jena Bishop | San Diego, Jun 27 | -138 | Won, submission R1 |
| Rafael do Nascimento | Austin, Jul 18 | +225 | Won, submission R2 |
| Gamid Khizriev | Austin, Jul 18 | -430 | Won, submission R1 (over Biaggio Ali Walsh) |
| Sarvarjon Khamidov | San Diego, Jun 27 | -390 | Won, technical submission R2 |
| Shannon Clark | San Diego, Jun 27 | -330 | Won, TKO R3 |
| Cobey Fehr | San Diego, Jun 27 | -1100 | Won, submission R1 |
| Abraham Bably | San Diego, Jun 27 | -205 | Lost, TKO R2 |
| Eliezer Kubanza | Washington D.C., Jul 25 | -138 | Won, submission R2 |
| Noah Hermosillo | Washington D.C., Jul 25 | -375 | Won, decision |
| Levan Khabalaev | New York, Jul 31 | none | Won, TKO R1 |
| Trey Waters | Charlotte, Aug 7 | -250 | Won, TKO R1 |
| Michael Boylan | Charlotte, Aug 7 | +172 | Lost, split decision |
| Morquez Forest | Tampa, Aug 22 | +148 | Lost, split decision |
Reference lines are FanDuel's, as published on each card page before the fight. In the 13 bouts that carried one, the favorite won 11. The two misses were do Nascimento and Bably, and both are on the main card Friday.
The prelim worth circling is Kubanza vs. Waters. Both won this summer, both by finish, and Kubanza was, with Bishop, the shortest favorite of the fourteen at -138. Two fighters with momentum and no clear edge between them is where a first line is most likely to be wrong.
How to follow it
- The card page: PFL Chicago carries the tale of the tape on all 14 bouts, the labeled reference line the day a book opens it, and live Kalshi prices the moment contracts list.
- The two headline fights, one page each: Carmouche vs. Bishop 2 prediction and Khizriev vs. Braga 2 prediction, each with both fighters' last fight and the line the day it posts.
- Before Chicago: PFL MENA 11 is Friday, October 2, in Riyadh, free on YouTube (our MENA 11 predictions). Then PFL Africa 3 is Saturday, October 10, in Casablanca.
- The big picture: the PFL World Tournament hub tracks the $1 million divisional brackets.
When the line posts, our Probability Converter turns any price into the probability it implies, and the EV Calculator tells you whether the number is worth taking. Trade responsibly.