PFL's first U.S. card since August lands on Friday, October 16 at Wintrust Arena, and every bout is now priced. Liz Carmouche is a 73% favorite to beat Jena Bishop again for the first PFL Women's Flyweight World Championship, and Timur Khizriev is 77% in his first fight in two years. Kalshi listed all 14 bouts on Tuesday. The full card, with the tale of the tape and the line on every bout, is on the PFL Chicago card page. New to reading prices as probabilities? Start with the PFL prediction markets guide.
> Where the odds stand (Thursday, October 15): FanDuel and DraftKings have priced the card, and Kalshi has all 14 bouts listed under its MMA fight series. The percentages below are FanDuel's lines with the book's margin removed (DraftKings where FanDuel hasn't posted the right matchup). One card change: Brock Hamer replaces Morquez Forest against Levan Khabalaev. Weigh-ins are Thursday; we recheck the card after them.
The PFL Chicago board
| # | Bout | Division | Favorite (no margin) | FanDuel | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Liz Carmouche vs. Jena Bishop | Women's flyweight (title, 5 rds) | Carmouche 73% | -350 / +255 | -360 / +285 |
| Co-main | Timur Khizriev vs. Gabriel Braga | Featherweight | Khizriev 77% | -420 / +310 | -410 / +320 |
| Main | Sarvarjon Khamidov vs. Rafael do Nascimento | Bantamweight | Khamidov 73% | -325 / +250 | -340 / +270 |
| Main | Oualy Tandia vs. JP Saint Louis | Welterweight | Tandia 68% | -250 / +198 | -258 / +210 |
| Main | Emiliano Sordi vs. Abraham Bably | Light heavyweight | Bably 68% | +198 / -250 | +205 / -250 |
| Prelim | Gamid Khizriev vs. Michael Boylan | Lightweight | Khizriev 93% | -4000 / +1260 | -2100 / +1100 |
| Prelim | Shannon Clark vs. Lucero Acosta | Women's flyweight | Clark 79% | -500 / +360 | -440 / +340 |
| Prelim | Cassio Barao vs. Kevin Pease | Lightweight | Pease 72% | +235 / -300 | +230 / -285 |
| Prelim | Eliezer Kubanza vs. Trey Waters | Welterweight | Kubanza 53% | -128 / +104 | -135 / +114 |
| Prelim | Cobey Fehr vs. Rosario Romero | Bantamweight | Fehr 79% | -500 / +360 | -440 / +340 |
| Prelim | Paulina Wisniewska vs. Chelsea Hackett | Women's flyweight | Wisniewska 79% | -500 / +360 | -440 / +340 |
| Prelim | Noah Hermosillo vs. Caden Cox | Featherweight | Hermosillo 56% (DraftKings) | — | -142 / +120 |
| Prelim | Benita van Rooij vs. Giuliany Perea | Women's strawweight | Perea 63% | +154 / -192 | +154 / -185 |
| Prelim | Levan Khabalaev vs. Brock Hamer | Lightweight | Khabalaev 85% | -800 / +520 | — |
Nine of the 14 favorites sit between 68% and 79%. Two bouts are close (Kubanza–Waters at 53%, Hermosillo–Cox at 56%), and two are near-locks (Gamid Khizriev at 93%, Khabalaev at 85%).
Carmouche vs. Bishop 2: the market remembers the finish
Liz Carmouche (26-8) vs. Jena Bishop (11-3), five rounds, for the vacant title. Carmouche 73% (FanDuel), 75% (DraftKings).
They met on August 15, 2025, in the PFL World Tournament final in Charlotte. Bishop is a decorated jiu-jitsu competitor, and she spent the second round hunting an armbar and a triangle from her back. Carmouche, a former Bellator champion and UFC title challenger, defended both. In the third she landed a right hand that put Bishop on her back and finished with hammerfists at 2:56.
Before the line opened, we said to watch how short the books made Carmouche: a tight line would mean the market thinks five rounds favor the grappler, a wide one that it's paying for the knockout. It came in wide. At 73-75%, the books are pricing the first fight's finish more than Bishop's submission looks, and Kalshi's early trading sat a little higher still, around 76%. If you think the extra two rounds give Bishop real time on the mat, 27% is the number you're arguing with. Full page: Carmouche vs. Bishop 2 prediction.
Khizriev vs. Braga 2: 18-0 and two years out, still 77%
Timur Khizriev (18-0) vs. Gabriel Braga (17-3), featherweight co-main. Khizriev 77% on both books.
Khizriev beat Braga by split decision in the 2024 playoffs, then took the featherweight world title from Brendan Loughnane. He hasn't fought since. PFL says a violent attack left him needing surgery and a long recovery. Braga stayed active.
We expected the unbeaten record to carry a premium, and it did. Both books land on the exact same 77%, layoff and all. The first fight was a split decision, so the case for Braga is that the real gap was thin on the night and two years of inactivity hasn't made it wider. Kalshi's book on this one is still thin, so the book line is the cleaner read. Full page: Khizriev vs. Braga 2 prediction.
Kalshi vs. the books
Kalshi listed every Chicago bout on Tuesday night. Where the exchange book is deep enough to read, it mostly agrees with FanDuel, with a few exceptions as of early Thursday:
- Shannon Clark traded around 84% on Kalshi against 79% at FanDuel, the biggest gap on the card in a market with real volume.
- Levan Khabalaev sat around 88% on Kalshi vs. 85% at FanDuel. His bout has traded the most contracts on the card so far.
- Liz Carmouche around 76% vs. 73%.
- Paulina Wisniewska matched exactly: 79% on both.
Several Kalshi books, the co-main's included, are still wide, with up to 25 cents between the bid and the ask, so a quoted midpoint there isn't a real price yet. Our card page shows the live exchange price once a book tightens and the labeled FanDuel line until then. To turn any price into the probability it implies, use the probability converter.
The rest of the main card (11 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
- Bantamweight: #6 Sarvarjon Khamidov (17-1) vs. Rafael do Nascimento (13-2). Khamidov is 73%. Do Nascimento was a +225 underdog in Austin and submitted Lewis McGrillen (-290) in the second round, the biggest upset in any of these fighters' 2026 bouts. The books aren't giving him much credit for it. Khamidov vs. do Nascimento prediction.
- Welterweight: Oualy Tandia (5-0) vs. JP Saint Louis (12-5). Tandia 68%: the unbeaten prospect over seventeen fights of experience. Tandia vs. Saint Louis prediction.
- Light heavyweight: #9 Emiliano Sordi (26-14-1) vs. Abraham Bably (8-3). Bably is 68% despite losing as a -205 favorite in San Diego, by second-round TKO to Rob Wilkinson. Sordi vs. Bably prediction.
The prelims (6 p.m. ET, ESPN App)
- Lightweight: Gamid Khizriev (5-0) vs. Michael Boylan (6-1). The shortest price on the card at 93%.
- Women's flyweight: #10 Shannon Clark (8-1) vs. Lucero Acosta (6-2). Clark 79%, and higher on Kalshi.
- Lightweight: Cassio Barao (10-1-1) vs. Kevin Pease (8-0). Pease 72%.
- Welterweight: #8 Eliezer Kubanza (9-1) vs. Trey Waters (10-2). Kubanza 53%, the coin flip of the night. Both won by finish this summer.
- Bantamweight: Cobey Fehr (4-0) vs. Rosario Romero (4-0). Fehr 79%.
- Women's flyweight: #5 Paulina Wisniewska (7-1) vs. Chelsea Hackett (5-3-1). Wisniewska 79%.
- Featherweight: Noah Hermosillo (1-0) vs. Caden Cox (2-0). Hermosillo 56% at DraftKings. FanDuel's listing shows a different opponent for Hermosillo, so we're using DraftKings here until that's sorted out.
- Women's strawweight: Benita van Rooij (7-2) vs. Giuliany Perea (5-1). Perea 63%.
- Lightweight: Levan Khabalaev (5-0) vs. Brock Hamer (5-1). Hamer replaces Morquez Forest on short notice in his PFL debut. Khabalaev 85%.
The niche inside the niche: we've already priced 13 of these fighters
Thirteen of the 28 fighters on this card, both main-eventers included, fought on a PFL card we covered this summer, and every one of those bouts is graded on its card page. That's a record of how the books read these fighters, and how it turned out.
| Fighter | Last time out | Reference line | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liz Carmouche | San Diego, Jun 27 | -265 | Won, submission R2 |
| Jena Bishop | San Diego, Jun 27 | -138 | Won, submission R1 |
| Rafael do Nascimento | Austin, Jul 18 | +225 | Won, submission R2 |
| Gamid Khizriev | Austin, Jul 18 | -430 | Won, submission R1 (over Biaggio Ali Walsh) |
| Sarvarjon Khamidov | San Diego, Jun 27 | -390 | Won, technical submission R2 |
| Shannon Clark | San Diego, Jun 27 | -330 | Won, TKO R3 |
| Cobey Fehr | San Diego, Jun 27 | -1100 | Won, submission R1 |
| Abraham Bably | San Diego, Jun 27 | -205 | Lost, TKO R2 |
| Eliezer Kubanza | Washington D.C., Jul 25 | -138 | Won, submission R2 |
| Noah Hermosillo | Washington D.C., Jul 25 | -375 | Won, decision |
| Levan Khabalaev | New York, Jul 31 | none | Won, TKO R1 |
| Trey Waters | Charlotte, Aug 7 | -250 | Won, TKO R1 |
| Michael Boylan | Charlotte, Aug 7 | +172 | Lost, split decision |
Reference lines are FanDuel's, as published on each card page before the fight. In the 12 bouts that carried one, the favorite won 10. The two misses were do Nascimento and Bably, and they're on the main card again in Chicago, both priced as if the summer didn't happen: do Nascimento as a 27% underdog, Bably as a 68% favorite.
How to follow it
- The card page: PFL Chicago carries the tale of the tape on all 14 bouts, the labeled reference line on every one, and live Kalshi prices where the book is tight enough to read.
- Every main-card fight, one page each: Carmouche vs. Bishop 2, Khizriev vs. Braga 2, Khamidov vs. do Nascimento, Tandia vs. Saint Louis and Sordi vs. Bably.
- The last two PFL cards: at PFL Africa Morocco on October 10, Abdoulaye Kane stopped Badr Medkouri with first-round elbows (Kane vs. Medkouri) and nine of ten favorites won (full results). At PFL MENA 11 in Riyadh on October 2, every priced favorite won (MENA 11 recap). Across every MMA card we've graded this season, the market favorite is 67-17, an 80% hit rate against the 69% the lines implied.
- The big picture: the PFL World Tournament hub tracks the $1 million divisional brackets.
Our Probability Converter turns any price into the probability it implies, and the EV Calculator tells you whether the number is worth taking.
Book lines are dated reference numbers from FanDuel and DraftKings, read the night of October 14-15, 2026, with the margin removed; they are not prediction-market prices. Kalshi prices are midpoints of the best available quote, read early October 15, and move. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where contracts settle at $1 or $0. Nothing here is advice. Trade responsibly.