PMP · MMAPFL Washington DC
Main Event · Welterweight
Thad Jean11-0 · #3
VSShamil Musaev20-1-1 · #1
Market opens soon
PFL · MMA
PFL Washington DC: Jean vs. Musaev
Saturday, July 25, 2026 · main card 10:00 PM EDT · CareFirst Arena · ESPN / ESPN App
The 7 OraclesPMP · MMAPFL Washington DCSaturday, July 25, 2026Quick Answer
As of July 22, 2026, PFL Washington DC: Jean vs. Musaev is headlined by Thad Jean (11-0, ranked #3) vs Shamil Musaev (20-1-1, #1) in the welterweight division, Saturday, July 25, 2026 at CareFirst Arena. Kalshi and Polymarket list combat-fight markets close to fight night — when PFL Washington DC's contracts open, the tale of the tape below fills with live win probabilities for all 11 bouts.
Why you can trade this card
Two tournament champions, one vacant belt: Thad Jean (2025) and Shamil Musaev (2024) both won the Road to $1M, and now they meet for the empty PFL welterweight crown. Washington, D.C. has sportsbooks — but Kalshi is CFTC-regulated in all 50 states, so anyone in the country can take a position on the title without a sportsbook account or a geofence.
What the market says
The full card at a glance — the market favorite, cross-platform price gap, method lean and liquidity for every bout. Market-derived, not a pick.
Sort:
| Bout | Market favorite | Cross-platform gap | Method lean | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Thad Jean vs Shamil Musaev Main Event · Welterweight | Market opens soon | — | — | — |
Magomed Umalatov vs Ernesto Rodriguez Co-Main Event · Welterweight | Ernesto Rodriguez19%+426 | — | — | $5Low |
Bryce Meredith vs Jack Cartwright Main Card · Bantamweight | Market opens soon | — | — | — |
Sullivan Cauley vs Rasul Magomedov Main Card · Light Heavyweight | Market opens soon | — | — | — |
Denis Goltsov vs Hasan Mezhiev Prelims · Heavyweight | Market opens soon | — | — | — |
Tyson Pedro vs Rafael Xavier Prelims · Light Heavyweight | Market opens soon | — | — | — |
Valentin Moldavsky vs Bruno Cappelozza Prelims · Heavyweight | Market opens soon | — | — | — |
Mando Gutierrez vs Nkosi Ndebele Prelims · Bantamweight | Market opens soon | — | — | — |
Eliezer Kubanza vs Chris Mixan Prelims · Welterweight | Market opens soon | — | — | — |
Chad Yard vs Coby Bradford Prelims · Light Heavyweight | Market opens soon | — | — | — |
Noah Hermosillo vs Jacob Pais Prelims · Featherweight | Market opens soon | — | — | — |
Market-derived signals, not a pick. A position can settle at $0 — informational only, trade responsibly.
Main card
PMP · MMAPFL Washington DC
Main Event · Welterweight
Thad Jean11-0 · #3
VSShamil Musaev20-1-1 · #1
Market opens soon
PMP · MMAPFL Washington DC
Co-Main Event · Welterweight
Magomed Umalatov18-1 · #2
VSErnesto Rodriguez12-5 · #9
PMP · MMAPFL Washington DC
Main Card · Bantamweight
Bryce Meredith7-1
VSJack Cartwright14-2
Market opens soon
PMP · MMAPFL Washington DC
Main Card · Light Heavyweight
Sullivan Cauley8-2 · #4
VSRasul Magomedov9-0 · #7
Market opens soon
Prelims
PMP · MMAPFL Washington DC
Prelims · Heavyweight
Denis Goltsov36-9 · #3
VSHasan Mezhiev14-0
Market opens soon
PMP · MMAPFL Washington DC
Prelims · Light Heavyweight
Tyson Pedro10-6 · #8
VSRafael Xavier14-9 · #10
Market opens soon
PMP · MMAPFL Washington DC
Prelims · Heavyweight
Valentin Moldavsky15-4
VSBruno Cappelozza15-7
Market opens soon
PMP · MMAPFL Washington DC
Prelims · Bantamweight
Mando Gutierrez11-5
VSNkosi Ndebele12-3
Market opens soon
PMP · MMAPFL Washington DC
Prelims · Welterweight
Eliezer Kubanza8-1
VSChris Mixan7-2
Market opens soon
PMP · MMAPFL Washington DC
Prelims · Light Heavyweight
Chad Yard4-0
VSCoby Bradford5-4
Market opens soon
PMP · MMAPFL Washington DC
Prelims · Featherweight
Noah Hermosillo0-0
VSJacob Pais1-0
Market opens soon
The prediction-market read
PFL Washington DC: Jean vs. Musaev brings 11 bouts to CareFirst Arena in Washington, D.C. on Saturday, July 25, 2026, live on ESPN / ESPN App. The card is headlined by Thad Jean (11-0, ranked #3) against Shamil Musaev (20-1-1, #1) in the welterweight division.
The tale of the tape above carries the live market read for 1 of 11bouts — each fighter's market-implied win probability in cents and comma-free American odds, with the market favorite tinted green. Prices come from Kalshi's combat-fight contracts, with a Polymarket fallback where PFL fights trade.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
PFL Washington DC — frequently asked
Who is favored at PFL Washington DC?
Thad Jean (11-0) meets Shamil Musaev (20-1-1) in the main event. PFL Washington DC's combat-fight markets list close to fight night — once they open, the tale of the tape above shows the market favorite and a live win probability for each bout, with no fabricated prices before then.
How can I watch PFL Washington DC?
PFL Washington DC: Jean vs. Musaev streams on ESPN / ESPN App. Prelims start 7:00 PM EDT, with the main card at 10:00 PM EDT on Saturday, July 25, 2026. While you watch, the live market read for every bout — market-implied win probability and comma-free American odds — is on this page the moment PFL Washington DC's contracts list.
Can you trade PFL Washington DC fights on Kalshi or Polymarket?
Yes — these are prediction markets, not a sportsbook. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available to traders in all 50 states, and PFL fights have traded on Polymarket. You take a yes/no position on a fighter in a contract that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where is PFL Washington DC?
PFL Washington DC: Jean vs. Musaev takes place Saturday, July 25, 2026 at CareFirst Arena in Washington, D.C., broadcast on ESPN / ESPN App. Main card starts 10:00 PM EDT.
What is the PFL World Tournament "Road to $1M"?
PFL runs single-elimination divisional brackets that pay $1 million to each division champion. Track the live price-to-win futures on our PFL World Tournament hub, which also carries the featured tale of the tape from this card.
How do prediction-market MMA odds work?
Each fighter's price is the market-implied probability they win, quoted in cents (a 69¢ contract implies a 69% chance) and shown here as comma-free American odds. Unlike a sportsbook line, the contract settles at $1 if the fighter wins and $0 if they lose, so the price IS the probability.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.