PFL's MENA league reaches its semifinals on Friday, October 2, in Riyadh. The card is built on a trilogy and six fights that end somebody's season. The full card, with the tale of the tape and price slots for every bout, is on the PFL MENA 11 card page. New to reading prices as probabilities? Start with our PFL prediction markets guide.
> Where the markets stand: as of Monday, September 28, no Kalshi or Polymarket contract is listed for PFL MENA 11. We don't publish a price that doesn't exist. The card page reads "Market opens soon" on every bout and switches to live market-implied probabilities the moment either venue lists the card.
The headliner: Nada vs. Elsaidy 3, tied 1-1
Mostafa Rashed Nada (9-4) and Osama Elsaidy (9-3) have fought twice and split them. The third fight, at light heavyweight, settles the series.
Trilogies are among the hardest fights to price, and this one should be close. The records are almost identical, and each man has already beaten the other. Most of what a market usually leans on, like résumé gaps, ranking gaps or unfamiliarity, is gone. What's left is whether either fighter has improved since the second meeting. Expect a tight number when a price does post. If one side opens as a heavy favorite, it's worth asking what the market knows that two fights between them didn't show.
Six semifinals, three divisions, one Friday
This is the part that makes MENA 11 different from a regular card. Every semifinal winner reaches the 2026 PFL MENA finals, and every loser's season ends in Riyadh.
Lightweight
- Ylies Djiroun (25-9) vs. Basel Ahmed Shalaan (7-1). The widest experience gap on the card: 34 pro fights against 8. Djiroun has the mileage and Shalaan has the cleaner record. A market usually has to decide which one it believes.
- Mohammad Fahmi (6-1) vs. Ahmed El Sisy (8-2). Two compact records, nothing to separate them on paper.
Welterweight
- Badreddine Diani (11-4) vs. Hazem Kayyali (3-0-2). Kayyali is unbeaten after five pro fights, two of them draws. Diani has fifteen fights. An unbeaten record built over five fights against a veteran with losses on his ledger is the classic name-versus-record price.
- Omar Hussein (12-7) vs. Abdelkrim Zouad (8-2). Nineteen fights of experience against a better win rate.
Featherweight
- Elias Boudegzdame (21-9) vs. Islam Youssef (7-3). Boudegzdame has thirty fights to Youssef's ten.
- Shadi Kabbani (5-0) vs. Mehdi Saadi (7-2). Kabbani is one of three unbeaten pros on the card.
Also on the card: Hassan Shaaban (4-2) vs. Assem Ghanem (7-0), where Ghanem's 7-0 is the best unbeaten record on the card.
The niche inside the niche: a Friday-morning card nobody in the U.S. is watching
The card starts at 5 p.m. in Riyadh, which is 10 a.m. ET on a Friday. There's no competing U.S. sport in that window, and the card streams free on YouTube. You can watch it on the card page with the tale of the tape beside it.
For a trader that cuts both ways. Thin attention means thin liquidity, so the first price that posts can sit wrong for longer than it would on a Saturday-night card. It also means a wide spread, so check the EV Calculator before paying the ask. If a contract lists, the first hour is when the price is most likely to be off.
How to follow it
- The card page: PFL MENA 11 on PredictionMarketsPicks carries the free live stream, every bout, and live prices the moment a venue lists.
- The last MENA card: PFL MENA 10 is graded, so you can see how that board read against the results.
- What's next: PFL heads to Casablanca for PFL Africa 3 on October 10, then to Chicago on Friday, October 16 for Carmouche vs. Bishop 2.
- The big picture: the PFL World Tournament hub tracks the $1 million divisional brackets.
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