> Result (graded): The card is in the books, and every priced favorite won. Mostafa Rashed Nada ended the trilogy with a guillotine choke at 2:33 of round two, as the 69% favorite over Osama Elsaidy. Badreddine Diani submitted Hazem Kayyali (arm-triangle, round 2), Ylies Djiroun stopped late replacement Assem Ghanem with punches in round 1, Abdelkrim Zouad and Mohammad Fahmi won unanimous decisions, and Mehdi Saadi, the fighter the market moved to, beat Shadi Kabbani by split decision. Fatima Al Ammari opened the show with a second-round TKO of Aya Lounes. The Boudegzdame semifinal never happened and is not in PFL's official results. Sherdog reports that Islam Youssef withdrew over a visa issue, his replacement Brice Picaud could not make weight, and Elias Boudegzdame advances to the featherweight final without fighting; PFL has not yet named the featherweight final. Full graded card, winner highlighted, with the replay, on the PFL MENA 11 card page. The preview below is left as written.
PFL's MENA league reaches its semifinals on Friday, October 2, in Riyadh. The card is built on a trilogy and six fights that end somebody's season. The full card, with the tale of the tape and price slots for every bout, is on the PFL MENA 11 card page. New to reading prices as probabilities? Start with our PFL prediction markets guide.
> Updated Friday, October 2 (morning): FanDuel's fight-day board is in the table below. The favorites firmed: Boudegzdame to 75%, Zouad to 70%, and Saadi, who took the Kabbani fight over from the opener, to 55%. FanDuel's listing still shows the pre-change pairings (Djiroun vs. Shalaan at -620 / +460 and Shaaban vs. Ghanem), which PFL MENA's own Thursday announcement took off the card, so we don't carry those two lines. One more late report, unconfirmed by PFL: Sherdog's event listing has Brice Picaud facing Elias Boudegzdame in place of Islam Youssef, while FanDuel still prices Youssef at +285. Until the card confirms it, treat the Youssef line with care.
> Updated Thursday, October 1: a late change. Assem Ghanem (7-0) steps into the lightweight tournament in place of Basel Shalaan and faces Ylies Djiroun in the semifinal, per PFL MENA's own face-off video. Both books' Djiroun–Shalaan lines are void, so that bout shows no price until the books re-post it, and Ghanem's original bout with Hassan Shaaban is off the card. The board below is FanDuel's Thursday pull, beside Wednesday's opener, and it adds the card opener: Fatima Al Ammari vs. Aya Lounes.
> Updated Wednesday, September 30: FanDuel posted the full MENA 11 board, and it now runs on every bout of the card page as a labeled reference line, de-vigged into the implied win probability each price is really saying. DraftKings posted earlier in the day, and the two books land within a few points on most fights. There is still no Kalshi or Polymarket contract for the card. We don't publish a price that doesn't exist, and every bout switches to a live market-implied probability the moment either venue lists.
The headliner: Nada vs. Elsaidy 3, tied 1-1
Mostafa Rashed Nada (9-4) and Osama Elsaidy (9-3) have fought twice and split them. The third fight, at light heavyweight, settles the series.
Trilogies are among the hardest fights to price, and on paper this one is a coin flip. The records are almost identical, and each man has already beaten the other. Most of what a price usually leans on, like résumé gaps, ranking gaps or unfamiliarity, is gone.
The opening number disagrees. FanDuel has Nada -260, Elsaidy +205, which de-vigs to about 69% / 31%. DraftKings is right there with it at -265 / +215. Two books landing in the same place means this isn't one book's opinion. It's a read that something changed since the second fight. If you buy the 1-1 story, Elsaidy is where the value would be, and DraftKings' +215 is the better number on him. If you trust the books, there's nothing worth paying -260 for on Nada. Run either side through the EV Calculator with your own probability before you pick one.
The full board: how FanDuel's lines moved
FanDuel's opener (Wednesday, September 30), its Thursday line and its fight-day Friday line, with Friday's vig stripped so each pair sums to 100%. DraftKings' Thursday line is alongside for comparison.
| Bout | FanDuel opener | FanDuel Thursday | FanDuel Friday | No vig (Fri) | DraftKings (Thu) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main event · Light heavyweight | Nada -260 / Elsaidy +205 | Nada -260 / Elsaidy +205 | Nada -255 / Elsaidy +210 | 69% / 31% | -245 / +200 |
| Lightweight SF | Djiroun vs. Shalaan (void) | Djiroun vs. Ghanem: not yet priced | not yet priced | — | — |
| Welterweight SF | Diani -158 / Kayyali +128 | Diani -142 / Kayyali +120 | Diani -138 / Kayyali +118 | 56% / 44% | -148 / +124 |
| Featherweight SF | Boudegzdame -320 / Youssef +245 | Boudegzdame -310 / Youssef +250 | Boudegzdame -355 / Youssef +285 | 75% / 25% | -298 / +240 |
| Welterweight SF | Zouad -230 / Hussein +184 | Zouad -225 / Hussein +188 | Zouad -270 / Hussein +220 | 70% / 30% | -218 / +180 |
| Featherweight SF | Kabbani -130 / Saadi +106 | Saadi -116 / Kabbani -102 | Saadi -134 / Kabbani +114 | 55% / 45% | Kabbani -112 / Saadi -108 |
| Lightweight SF | Fahmi -170 / El Sisy +138 | Fahmi -148 / El Sisy +126 | Fahmi -146 / El Sisy +124 | 57% / 43% | -148 / +124 |
| Prelim · 139 lb catchweight | — | Al Ammari -295 / Lounes +240 | Al Ammari -295 / Lounes +240 | 72% / 28% | — |
Fight order (ET), per FanDuel's listing: Al Ammari vs. Lounes 10:00 AM · Fahmi vs. El Sisy 10:40 · Kabbani vs. Saadi 11:00 · Hussein vs. Zouad 11:40 · Djiroun vs. Ghanem 12:00 PM · Youssef vs. Boudegzdame 12:20 · Diani vs. Kayyali 12:40 · Nada vs. Elsaidy, the main event, after that. Fight times slide with early finishes.
What the board is saying:
- The line that flipped is Kabbani vs. Saadi, and it kept going. FanDuel opened Kabbani -130 (54%). By Thursday Saadi was the -116 favorite; on fight day he is -134 (55%) and Kabbani is a +114 underdog: the only fight on the card where the favorite changed.
- The best unbeaten record on the card just got a semifinal on a day's notice. Assem Ghanem (7-0) was booked on a prelim; now he's in the lightweight tournament against the most experienced man on the card. No book has priced it yet.
- The books took the name over the record in the welterweight semi. Hazem Kayyali is unbeaten after five fights and still a 42% underdog to Badreddine Diani's fifteen-fight résumé.
- The biggest favorite on the card is now Boudegzdame at 75%, up from 73% on Thursday, with Zouad firming to 70% and the card opener, Fatima Al Ammari, at 72% in front of a home crowd in Riyadh. Djiroun was 82% against Shalaan; against an unbeaten replacement on a day's notice, expect a different number.
- Shop the number. The same fighter can sit 30 or more points apart between the two books (Fahmi opened -170 at FanDuel and is -148 a day later). Before you take any side, find the better of the two prices and convert it with the Probability Converter.
Six semifinals, three divisions, one Friday
This is the part that makes MENA 11 different from a regular card. Every semifinal winner reaches the 2026 PFL MENA finals, and every loser's season ends in Riyadh.
Lightweight
- Ylies Djiroun (25-9) vs. Assem Ghanem (7-0). The late change. Basel Shalaan is out, and Ghanem, the best unbeaten record on the card, steps up from a prelim into the semifinal on a day's notice. It's 34 pro fights against 7, and the books haven't priced it.
- Mohammad Fahmi (6-1) vs. Ahmed El Sisy (8-2). Two compact records, nothing to separate them on paper.
Welterweight
- Badreddine Diani (11-4) vs. Hazem Kayyali (3-0-2). Kayyali is unbeaten after five pro fights, two of them draws. Diani has fifteen fights. An unbeaten record built over five fights against a veteran with losses on his ledger is the classic name-versus-record price, and FanDuel took the name: Diani -158.
- Omar Hussein (12-7) vs. Abdelkrim Zouad (8-2). Nineteen fights of experience against a better win rate.
Featherweight
- Elias Boudegzdame (21-9) vs. Islam Youssef (7-3). Boudegzdame has thirty fights to Youssef's ten.
- Shadi Kabbani (5-0) vs. Mehdi Saadi (7-2). Kabbani is one of the unbeaten pros on the card, and his is the line that moved: he opened the FanDuel favorite at -130 and is now the -102 underdog to Saadi.
Also on the card: Fatima Al Ammari (Saudi Arabia) vs. Aya Lounes (Algeria) at a 139 lb catchweight opens the show at 10 a.m. ET, with FanDuel making the home fighter a -295 favorite. Hassan Shaaban's bout against Ghanem is off the card.
The niche inside the niche: a Friday-morning card nobody in the U.S. is watching
The card starts at 5 p.m. in Riyadh, which is 10 a.m. ET on a Friday. There's no competing U.S. sport in that window, and the card streams free on YouTube. You can watch it on the card page with the tale of the tape beside it.
For a trader that cuts both ways. Thin attention means thin liquidity, so the first price that posts can sit wrong for longer than it would on a Saturday-night card. It also means a wide spread, so check the EV Calculator before paying the ask. If a contract lists, the first hour is when the price is most likely to be off.
How the board read against the result (graded)
FanDuel priced six of the bouts that were fought, and the favorite won all six: Nada (69%), Al Ammari (72%), Zouad (70%), Fahmi (57%), Diani (56%) and Saadi (55%). Two of those stood out in the preview. The name-over-record read in the welterweight semi held: Diani, the fifteen-fight veteran, submitted the unbeaten Kayyali in the second round. The only line that flipped, Kabbani vs. Saadi, went to the fighter the money moved toward, though only by split decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29). The two bouts the board could not price ended up as a walkover (Boudegzdame) and a first-round finish (Djiroun over Ghanem, the day's-notice replacement).
Six for six is a check of the book's line against the results, not a record of positions. No exchange ever listed this card and we took no position on it. Every bout, with its result pinned beside the line it carried, is on the PFL MENA 11 card page.
How to follow it
- The card page: PFL MENA 11 on PredictionMarketsPicks carries the full replay, FanDuel's labeled reference line on every bout, and the graded result of each.
- The last MENA card: PFL MENA 10 is graded, so you can see how that board read against the results.
- The finals: the semifinal winners fight for the 2026 PFL MENA titles at PFL MENA 12 in Al Khobar, Saudi Arabia, on Friday, December 11.
- What's next: PFL heads to Casablanca for PFL Africa 3 on October 10 (our PFL Africa Morocco predictions cover the card), then to Chicago on Friday, October 16 for Carmouche vs. Bishop 2 — our PFL Chicago predictions are already up.
- The big picture: the PFL World Tournament hub tracks the $1 million divisional brackets.
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