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NFL Player Projections
2026 · Week 1 · DAEPA matchup + injury adjusted · Half-PPR
Updated monthly off-season as rosters change — weekly once the season starts.
These are matchup-adjusted fantasy projections for every NFL skill player — quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and tight ends — built on the same Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA) engine that powers our game edges and win totals. For each player we start from multi-year usage and efficiency, adjust for the specific defense they face that week, and layer in a Player Importance Score (PIS) that models how injuries up and down the depth chart move a player's expected volume. The output is a half-PPR point projection with a 90th-percentile ceiling and 10th-percentile floor, so you can see the range of outcomes, not just the median.
Off-season, the board is a monthly snapshot that moves on roster and depth-chart news; once the season starts it refreshes weekly as matchups and injury reports land. Use it to settle start/sit calls, find where our number diverges from consensus, and pair it with the usage stat tiles to understand why a player is projected where they are.
Watch: why Omarion Hampton is a 2026 breakout — backfield opportunity, the DAEPA matchup read, and the projection that follows.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Proj Pts ↓ | Ceiling | Floor | Injury | PIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | QB | NYG | DAL | 20.1 | 27.2 | 13.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | DEN | 19.8 | 26.7 | 12.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | HOU | 19.1 | 25.7 | 12.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | LA | 18.7 | 28.0 | 9.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Drake Maye | QB | NE | SEA | 18.7 | 25.2 | 12.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | PIT | 18.5 | 27.8 | 9.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | LAC | 17.9 | 24.2 | 11.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | MIA | 17.6 | 26.4 | 8.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tony Pollard | RB | TEN | NYJ | 17.6 | 26.3 | 8.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | PHI | 17.2 | 23.3 | 11.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | TEN | 17.1 | 25.7 | 8.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Brock Purdy | QB | SF | LA | 16.9 | 22.8 | 11.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LA | SF | 16.9 | 25.3 | 8.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | NE | 16.8 | 25.2 | 8.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | CLE | 16.8 | 22.6 | 10.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | IND | 16.7 | 25.1 | 8.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Bo Nix | QB | DEN | KC | 16.4 | 22.1 | 10.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | SF | 16.3 | 22.0 | 10.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | TB | 16.0 | 24.1 | 8.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Cam Skattebo | RB | NYG | DAL | 15.9 | 23.9 | 8.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | ARI | 15.8 | 21.3 | 10.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | NYG | 15.7 | 21.2 | 10.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Bucky Irving | RB | TB | CIN | 15.7 | 23.5 | 7.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | LV | 15.5 | 23.2 | 7.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | CIN | 15.5 | 20.9 | 10.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | CAR | 15.4 | 20.8 | 10.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LA | SF | 15.3 | 23.0 | 7.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | BAL | 15.3 | 22.9 | 7.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | WAS | 15.2 | 20.5 | 9.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Daniel Jones | QB | IND | BAL | 15.1 | 20.4 | 9.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tyler Shough | QB | NO | DET | 15.1 | 20.4 | 9.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | IND | 15.0 | 20.2 | 9.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Mac Jones | QB | SF | LA | 14.8 | 20.0 | 9.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jared Goff | QB | DET | NO | 14.6 | 19.8 | 9.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | TB | 14.5 | 19.6 | 9.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | GB | 14.3 | 21.4 | 7.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| George Pickens | WR | DAL | NYG | 14.2 | 21.3 | 7.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | BUF | 14.1 | 19.1 | 9.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | NO | 14.1 | 21.1 | 7.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | NYG | 14.0 | 21.0 | 7.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Bryce Young | QB | CAR | CHI | 14.0 | 18.9 | 9.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Carson Wentz | QB | MIN | GB | 13.7 | 18.6 | 8.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | WAS | 13.5 | 20.3 | 6.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Joe Flacco | QB | CIN | TB | 13.5 | 18.2 | 8.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jordan Love | QB | GB | MIN | 13.4 | 18.1 | 8.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Chase Brown | RB | CIN | TB | 13.4 | 20.1 | 6.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | ATL | PIT | 13.3 | 17.9 | 8.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | WAS | 13.2 | 19.8 | 6.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Marcus Mariota | QB | WAS | PHI | 13.1 | 17.7 | 8.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Cam Ward | QB | TEN | NYJ | 13.0 | 17.5 | 8.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | NO | 12.9 | 19.4 | 6.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | GB | MIN | 12.8 | 19.3 | 6.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Davante Adams | WR | LA | SF | 12.8 | 19.3 | 6.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | ATL | 12.8 | 17.3 | 8.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | CAR | 12.6 | 18.8 | 6.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Spencer Rattler | QB | NO | DET | 12.5 | 16.9 | 8.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | WAS | 12.4 | 18.0 | 6.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | CLE | JAX | 12.3 | 16.6 | 8.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | ARI | 12.2 | 18.3 | 6.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Sam Darnold | QB | SEA | NE | 12.0 | 16.2 | 7.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | NYG | DAL | 12.0 | 18.0 | 6.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | MIN | GB | 12.0 | 16.2 | 7.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | JAX | 11.9 | 17.8 | 5.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | LAC | ARI | 11.7 | 17.5 | 5.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Davis Mills | QB | HOU | BUF | 11.6 | 15.7 | 7.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | TEN | 11.6 | 17.5 | 5.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | NYG | 11.6 | 17.4 | 5.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | TB | 11.4 | 17.1 | 5.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | NYJ | TEN | 11.3 | 17.0 | 5.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | LAC | ARI | 11.1 | 16.7 | 5.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Aaron Jones | RB | MIN | GB | 10.9 | 16.4 | 5.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jameis Winston | QB | NYG | DAL | 10.8 | 14.6 | 7.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Alec Pierce | WR | IND | BAL | 10.7 | 16.1 | 5.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | ATL | 10.6 | 15.9 | 5.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | BAL | 10.6 | 15.3 | 5.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | HOU | 10.5 | 15.8 | 5.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | IND | 10.5 | 15.7 | 5.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | CAR | 10.2 | 15.3 | 5.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB | ARI | LAC | 10.1 | 15.2 | 5.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Colston Loveland | TE | CHI | CAR | 9.9 | 14.4 | 5.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | KC | 9.9 | 14.9 | 5.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | KC | 9.7 | 14.5 | 4.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tyler Huntley | QB | BAL | IND | 9.7 | 13.1 | 6.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jordan Addison | WR | MIN | GB | 9.6 | 14.3 | 4.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | ATL | 9.6 | 14.3 | 4.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | NE | SEA | 9.5 | 14.3 | 4.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Carnell Tate | WR | TEN | NYJ | 9.5 | 14.3 | 4.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | PIT | 9.5 | 14.2 | 4.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| RJ Harvey | RB | DEN | KC | 9.3 | 14.0 | 4.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | CLE | 9.3 | 14.0 | 4.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | NYG | 9.3 | 13.5 | 5.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | LA | 9.3 | 13.4 | 5.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Nico Collins | WR | HOU | BUF | 9.2 | 13.8 | 4.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jameson Williams | WR | DET | NO | 9.1 | 13.7 | 4.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| James Conner | RB | ARI | LAC | 9.1 | 13.7 | 4.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | CHI | 9.1 | 13.6 | 4.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | DAL | 9.1 | 13.6 | 4.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | DET | 8.9 | 13.4 | 4.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Aidan O'Connell | QB | LV | MIA | 8.9 | 12.0 | 5.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | TEN | NYJ | 8.9 | 13.3 | 4.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | DEN | 8.8 | 13.2 | 4.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | DET | 8.8 | 13.2 | 4.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | NYJ | TEN | 8.6 | 12.8 | 4.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Makai Lemon | WR | PHI | WAS | 8.6 | 12.8 | 4.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | SEA | 8.5 | 12.8 | 4.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Audric Estimé | RB | NO | DET | 8.5 | 12.8 | 4.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR | CHI | 8.5 | 12.8 | 4.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Brady Cook | QB | NYJ | TEN | 8.4 | 11.4 | 5.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Oronde Gadsden II | TE | LAC | ARI | 8.4 | 12.2 | 4.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | CLE | 8.4 | 12.7 | 4.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Josh Downs | WR | IND | BAL | 8.4 | 12.6 | 4.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | NO | 8.3 | 12.1 | 4.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Quinn Ewers | QB | MIA | LV | 8.1 | 11.0 | 5.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Mason Taylor | TE | NYJ | TEN | 8.1 | 11.7 | 4.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jordyn Tyson | WR | NO | DET | 8.1 | 12.1 | 4.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | CIN | 8.1 | 12.1 | 4.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tanner McKee | QB | PHI | WAS | 8.1 | 10.9 | 5.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Troy Franklin | WR | DEN | KC | 8.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Blake Corum | RB | LA | SF | 7.9 | 11.9 | 4.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Bam Knight | RB | ARI | LAC | 7.8 | 11.7 | 3.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | CAR | 7.8 | 11.6 | 3.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | MIA | 7.7 | 11.2 | 4.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kimani Vidal | RB | LAC | ARI | 7.7 | 11.6 | 3.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Woody Marks | RB | HOU | BUF | 7.7 | 11.6 | 3.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Greg Dulcich | TE | MIA | LV | 7.7 | 11.2 | 4.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | GB | 7.7 | 11.1 | 4.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR | DAL | NYG | 7.6 | 11.3 | 3.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | WAS | PHI | 7.5 | 11.3 | 3.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | HOU | 7.5 | 11.3 | 3.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Theo Wease Jr. | WR | MIA | LV | 7.5 | 11.2 | 3.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Chris Oladokun | QB | KC | DEN | 7.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Dillon Gabriel | QB | CLE | JAX | 7.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | JAX | CLE | 7.3 | 10.9 | 3.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Riley Leonard | QB | IND | BAL | 7.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Sean Tucker | RB | TB | CIN | 7.2 | 10.7 | 3.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | LAC | 7.1 | 10.3 | 3.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| AJ Barner | TE | SEA | NE | 7.1 | 10.3 | 3.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jordan Mason | RB | MIN | GB | 7.1 | 10.7 | 3.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Germie Bernard | WR | PIT | ATL | 7.1 | 10.6 | 3.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | PIT | 7.0 | 10.2 | 3.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Ricky Pearsall | WR | SF | LA | 7.0 | 10.4 | 3.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Brenton Strange | TE | JAX | CLE | 6.9 | 10.0 | 3.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Trey Benson | RB | ARI | LAC | 6.9 | 10.3 | 3.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jawhar Jordan | RB | HOU | BUF | 6.8 | 10.3 | 3.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Devin Singletary | RB | NYG | DAL | 6.8 | 10.2 | 3.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Keon Coleman | WR | BUF | HOU | 6.7 | 10.0 | 3.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tory Horton | WR | SEA | NE | 6.6 | 9.9 | 3.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Isaiah Williams | WR | NYJ | TEN | 6.6 | 9.9 | 3.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | BUF | 6.5 | 9.5 | 3.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Travis Hunter | WR | JAX | CLE | 6.5 | 9.8 | 3.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | SEA | NE | 6.4 | 9.6 | 3.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Devin Neal | RB | NO | DET | 6.3 | 9.5 | 3.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | LA | SF | 6.3 | 9.2 | 3.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | CHI | CAR | 6.3 | 9.4 | 3.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jake Tonges | TE | SF | LA | 6.2 | 9.0 | 3.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Malik Washington | WR | MIA | LV | 6.2 | 9.2 | 3.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | MIN | 6.2 | 9.2 | 3.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tyler Higbee | TE | LA | SF | 6.1 | 8.9 | 3.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | HOU | 6.1 | 8.9 | 3.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jahdae Walker | WR | CHI | CAR | 6.1 | 9.1 | 3.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | TB | CIN | 6.1 | 9.1 | 3.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Trey Lance | QB | LAC | ARI | 6.0 | 8.2 | 3.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Zach Charbonnet | RB | SEA | NE | 5.9 | 8.9 | 3.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | DEN | 5.9 | 8.5 | 3.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tre Tucker | WR | LV | MIA | 5.8 | 8.8 | 2.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Theo Johnson | TE | NYG | DAL | 5.8 | 8.5 | 3.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | SF | LA | 5.8 | 8.7 | 2.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | PHI | 5.7 | 8.6 | 2.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | CLE | JAX | 5.7 | 8.2 | 3.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | MIN | 5.7 | 8.2 | 3.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | ATL | 5.5 | 8.0 | 3.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Hunter Henry | TE | NE | SEA | 5.5 | 8.0 | 3.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Cade Otton | TE | TB | CIN | 5.5 | 8.0 | 3.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Elic Ayomanor | WR | TEN | NYJ | 5.4 | 8.1 | 2.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | IND | 5.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | LAC | 5.3 | 8.0 | 2.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | DET | 5.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Evan Engram | TE | DEN | KC | 5.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kenyon Sadiq | TE | NYJ | TEN | 5.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kendre Miller | RB | NO | DET | 5.2 | 7.8 | 2.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | CHI | 5.1 | 7.6 | 2.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Raheim Sanders | RB | CLE | JAX | 5.1 | 7.6 | 2.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jayden Higgins | WR | HOU | BUF | 5.0 | 7.6 | 2.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | TEN | NYJ | 5.0 | 7.5 | 2.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | CIN | TB | 5.0 | 7.3 | 2.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Darnell Washington | TE | PIT | ATL | 5.0 | 7.2 | 2.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Andrei Iosivas | WR | CIN | TB | 5.0 | 7.5 | 2.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Darius Slayton | WR | NYG | DAL | 5.0 | 7.5 | 2.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Pat Bryant | WR | DEN | KC | 5.0 | 7.4 | 2.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Justice Hill | RB | BAL | IND | 4.8 | 7.2 | 2.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Samaje Perine | RB | CIN | TB | 4.8 | 7.2 | 2.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Cole Kmet | TE | CHI | CAR | 4.7 | 6.9 | 2.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Mason Rudolph | QB | PIT | ATL | 4.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | ARI | LAC | 4.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jadarian Price | RB | SEA | NE | 4.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Chimere Dike | WR | TEN | NYJ | 4.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | CLE | JAX | 4.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jaylen Wright | RB | MIA | LV | 4.3 | 6.5 | 2.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tre Harris | WR | LAC | ARI | 4.3 | 6.5 | 2.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Isaiah Davis | RB | NYJ | TEN | 4.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | KC | DEN | 4.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Dawson Knox | TE | BUF | HOU | 4.3 | 6.2 | 2.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | DEN | KC | 4.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jayden Reed | WR | GB | MIN | 4.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Xavier Hutchinson | WR | HOU | BUF | 4.2 | 6.3 | 2.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Brock Wright | TE | DET | NO | 4.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Xavier Legette | WR | CAR | CHI | 4.2 | 6.3 | 2.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | TB | CIN | 4.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Zavion Thomas | WR | CHI | CAR | 4.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Denzel Boston | WR | CLE | JAX | 4.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| KC Concepcion | WR | CLE | JAX | 4.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| KaVontae Turpin | WR | DAL | NYG | 4.1 | 6.1 | 2.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Zavier Scott | RB | MIN | GB | 4.0 | 6.1 | 2.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Terrance Ferguson | TE | LA | SF | 4.0 | 5.8 | 2.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Mitchell Tinsley | WR | CIN | TB | 4.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Darius Cooper | WR | PHI | WAS | 4.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Dylan Sampson | RB | CLE | JAX | 3.9 | 5.9 | 2.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Michael Mayer | TE | LV | MIA | 3.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Caleb Douglas | WR | MIA | LV | 3.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Chris Bell | WR | MIA | LV | 3.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Roman Wilson | WR | PIT | ATL | 3.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jeremy Ruckert | TE | NYJ | TEN | 3.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Mack Hollins | WR | NE | SEA | 3.8 | 5.7 | 1.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Xavier Smith | WR | LA | SF | 3.8 | 5.7 | 1.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Max Brosmer | QB | MIN | GB | 3.8 | 5.2 | 2.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | SEA | NE | 3.8 | 5.7 | 1.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kene Nwangwu | RB | NYJ | TEN | 3.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tez Johnson | WR | TB | CIN | 3.7 | 5.6 | 1.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Devaughn Vele | WR | NO | DET | 3.6 | 5.5 | 1.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR | KC | DEN | 3.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kayshon Boutte | WR | NE | SEA | 3.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Isaac TeSlaa | WR | DET | NO | 3.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Josh Oliver | TE | MIN | GB | 3.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | WR | NO | DET | 3.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Josh Palmer | WR | BUF | HOU | 3.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tank Bigsby | RB | PHI | WAS | 3.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | BAL | IND | 3.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Braelon Allen | RB | NYJ | TEN | 3.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Ty Johnson | RB | BUF | HOU | 3.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Gunnar Helm | TE | TEN | NYJ | 3.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jaret Patterson | RB | LAC | ARI | 3.4 | 5.2 | 1.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tanner Hudson | TE | CIN | TB | 3.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | WR | DEN | KC | 3.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Isaiah Hodgins | WR | NYG | DAL | 3.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jaydon Blue | RB | DAL | NYG | 3.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Malik Davis | RB | DAL | NYG | 3.3 | 5.0 | 1.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | DEN | KC | 3.3 | 5.0 | 1.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jeremy McNichols | RB | WAS | PHI | 3.3 | 4.9 | 1.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Konata Mumpfield | WR | LA | SF | 3.2 | 4.9 | 1.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | CLE | 3.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Ashton Dulin | WR | IND | BAL | 3.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tyrell Shavers | WR | BUF | HOU | 3.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Davis Allen | TE | LA | SF | 3.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jaylin Noel | WR | HOU | BUF | 3.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kaelon Black | RB | SF | LA | 3.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Grant Calcaterra | TE | PHI | WAS | 3.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Hunter Long | TE | JAX | CLE | 3.0 | 4.4 | 1.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Joe Milton III | QB | DAL | NYG | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Brashard Smith | RB | KC | DEN | 3.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | TE | CAR | CHI | 3.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Demarcus Robinson | WR | SF | LA | 3.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | LAC | ARI | 3.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Elijah Arroyo | TE | SEA | NE | 2.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Corey Kiner | RB | ARI | LAC | 2.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Cade Stover | TE | HOU | BUF | 2.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| British Brooks | RB | HOU | BUF | 2.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Malachi Fields | WR | NYG | DAL | 2.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Ted Hurst | WR | TB | CIN | 2.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Ray Davis | RB | BUF | HOU | 2.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Cedric Tillman | WR | CLE | JAX | 2.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jordan Whittington | WR | LA | SF | 2.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Austin Trammell | WR | JAX | CLE | 2.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| DeMario Douglas | WR | NE | SEA | 2.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | BAL | IND | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Treylon Burks | WR | WAS | PHI | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jack Bech | WR | LV | MIA | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Hunter Luepke | RB | DAL | NYG | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Adam Trautman | TE | DEN | KC | 2.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Mo Alie-Cox | TE | IND | BAL | 2.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tommy Tremble | TE | CAR | CHI | 2.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jalin Hyatt | WR | NYG | DAL | 2.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | MIN | 2.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | MIA | LV | 2.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Chris Brazzell II | WR | CAR | CHI | 2.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Terrell Jennings | RB | NE | SEA | 2.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Dylan Drummond | WR | ATL | PIT | 2.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Luke McCaffrey | WR | WAS | PHI | 2.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Eli Stowers | TE | PHI | WAS | 2.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Zachariah Branch | WR | ATL | PIT | 2.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Casey Washington | WR | ATL | PIT | 2.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Drew Sample | TE | CIN | TB | 2.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jackson Hawes | TE | BUF | HOU | 2.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Rasheen Ali | RB | BAL | IND | 2.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Arian Smith | WR | NYJ | TEN | 2.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | LV | MIA | 2.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Sam Roush | TE | CHI | CAR | 2.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Brycen Tremayne | WR | CAR | CHI | 2.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Brenen Thompson | WR | LAC | ARI | 2.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Noah Gray | TE | KC | DEN | 2.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Will Shipley | RB | PHI | WAS | 2.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tyler Badie | RB | DEN | KC | 2.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| DJ Giddens | RB | IND | BAL | 2.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Andrew Beck | RB | NYJ | TEN | 2.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Isaiah Bond | WR | CLE | JAX | 2.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| George Holani | RB | SEA | NE | 2.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Luke Schoonmaker | TE | DAL | NYG | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Mitchell Evans | TE | CAR | CHI | 2.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Will Kacmarek | TE | MIA | LV | 2.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kyle Juszczyk | RB | SF | LA | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Nate Adkins | TE | DEN | KC | 2.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Antonio Williams | WR | WAS | PHI | 2.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Colbie Young | WR | CIN | TB | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Trevor Etienne | RB | CAR | CHI | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Max Klare | TE | LA | SF | 2.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | WR | MIA | LV | 1.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | DAL | NYG | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Luke Farrell | TE | SF | LA | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | WR | CAR | CHI | 1.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Luke Musgrave | TE | GB | MIN | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jaylin Lane | WR | WAS | PHI | 1.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kaden Wetjen | WR | PIT | ATL | 1.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| CJ Daniels | WR | LA | SF | 1.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kyle Williams | WR | NE | SEA | 1.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Chris Brooks | RB | GB | MIN | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Ben Sinnott | TE | WAS | PHI | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Nicholas Singleton | RB | TEN | NYJ | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Nate Boerkircher | TE | JAX | CLE | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Ian Thomas | TE | LV | MIA | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kendrick Law | WR | DET | NO | 1.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Mason Tipton | WR | NO | DET | 1.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Gage Larvadain | WR | CLE | JAX | 1.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Malachi Corley | WR | CLE | JAX | 1.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Julius Chestnut | RB | TEN | NYJ | 1.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Mike Washington Jr. | RB | LV | MIA | 1.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| John Bates | TE | WAS | PHI | 1.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Emmanuel Henderson Jr. | WR | SEA | NE | 1.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Josh Cameron | WR | JAX | CLE | 1.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Elijah Higgins | TE | ARI | LAC | 1.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | PROBABLE | — |
| Adam Randall | RB | BAL | IND | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Marlin Klein | TE | HOU | BUF | 1.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tahj Brooks | RB | CIN | TB | 1.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Savion Williams | WR | GB | MIN | 1.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Skyler Bell | WR | BUF | HOU | 1.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Demond Claiborne | RB | MIN | GB | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Malik Benson | WR | LV | MIA | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Elijah Sarratt | WR | BAL | IND | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jonah Coleman | RB | DEN | KC | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jamari Thrash | WR | CLE | JAX | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Oscar Delp | TE | NO | DET | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Cyrus Allen | WR | KC | DEN | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Emmett Johnson | RB | KC | DEN | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kaytron Allen | RB | WAS | PHI | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Barion Brown | WR | NO | DET | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Bryce Lance | WR | NO | DET | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Xavier Weaver | WR | ARI | LAC | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kaleb Johnson | RB | PIT | ATL | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | JAX | CLE | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Eli Raridon | TE | NE | SEA | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Reggie Virgil | WR | ARI | LAC | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Adam Prentice | RB | DEN | KC | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Max Bredeson | TE | MIN | GB | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Seydou Traore | TE | MIA | LV | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Riley Nowakowski | TE | PIT | ATL | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Justin Joly | TE | DEN | KC | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Tanner Koziol | TE | JAX | CLE | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Anthony Smith | WR | DAL | NYG | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Deion Burks | WR | IND | BAL | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Bauer Sharp | TE | TB | CIN | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | PROBABLE | — |
| Josh Cuevas | TE | BAL | IND | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Matthew Hibner | TE | BAL | IND | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| CJ Williams | WR | JAX | CLE | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Seth McGowan | RB | IND | BAL | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Lewis Bond | WR | HOU | BUF | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Joe Royer | TE | CLE | JAX | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jam Miller | RB | NE | SEA | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jack Endries | TE | CIN | TB | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Dallen Bentley | TE | DEN | KC | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jaren Kanak | TE | TEN | NYJ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Carsen Ryan | TE | CLE | JAX | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | PROBABLE | — |
| Garrett Nussmeier | QB | KC | DEN | — | — | 0.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Behren Morton | QB | NE | SEA | — | — | 0.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Ty Simpson | QB | LA | SF | — | — | 0.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Taylen Green | QB | CLE | JAX | — | — | 0.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Drew Allar | QB | PIT | ATL | — | — | 0.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Cade Klubnik | QB | NYJ | TEN | — | — | 0.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Carson Beck | QB | ARI | LAC | — | — | 0.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Fernando Mendoza | QB | LV | MIA | — | — | 0.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Cole Payton | QB | PHI | WAS | — | — | 0.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Athan Kaliakmanis | QB | WAS | PHI | — | — | 0.0 | PROBABLE | — |
389 players
Proj Pts — Half-PPR projected fantasy points · Ceiling / Floor — 90th / 10th percentile outcomes · PIS — Player Importance Score (injury impact on team DAEPA)
Who owns the backfield
All NFL stat tiles →RB opportunity share
Bell cows vs. committee — share of team backfield opportunities (carries + targets), colored by efficiency.
NFL player projections — FAQ
How are these NFL player projections calculated?
Each projection starts from a player’s multi-year usage and efficiency, adjusts for the specific defense they face using Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), and applies a Player Importance Score that models how depth-chart injuries shift expected volume. The result is a half-PPR point projection with a 90th-percentile ceiling and a 10th-percentile floor.
What is a Player Importance Score (PIS)?
PIS estimates how much a given player’s presence or absence changes their team’s overall DAEPA efficiency. It’s how an injury to a lineman, a quarterback, or a target-hogging receiver ripples through the projections of everyone around them — a backup running back’s ceiling rises when the starter is out, and a receiver’s floor drops when his quarterback is questionable.
How often do the projections update?
Off-season they refresh monthly as rosters and depth charts change. Once the regular season starts they update weekly, incorporating the latest matchup and injury-report information before each slate.
What does half-PPR mean?
Half-PPR (half point per reception) is a common fantasy scoring format where each catch is worth 0.5 points on top of yardage and touchdown scoring. It sits between standard scoring and full-PPR and is the default these projections are tuned to.
More NFL Markets
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale