2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 6 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 6 game priced against the live prediction market.
NFL Player Projections
2026 · Week 6 · DAEPA matchup + injury adjusted · Half-PPR
Board last written Oct 14, 2026. Updated monthly off-season as rosters change — weekly once the season starts.
These are matchup-adjusted fantasy projections for every NFL skill player — quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and tight ends — built on the same Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA) engine that powers our game edges and win totals. For each player we start from multi-year usage and efficiency, adjust for the specific defense they face that week, and layer in a Player Importance Score (PIS) that models how injuries up and down the depth chart move a player's expected volume. The output is a half-PPR point projection with a 90th-percentile ceiling and 10th-percentile floor, so you can see the range of outcomes, not just the median.
Off-season, the board is a monthly snapshot that moves on roster and depth-chart news; once the season starts it refreshes weekly as matchups and injury reports land. Use it to settle start/sit calls, find where our number diverges from consensus, and pair it with the usage stat tiles to understand why a player is projected where they are.
Watch: why Omarion Hampton is a 2026 breakout — backfield opportunity, the DAEPA matchup read, and the projection that follows.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Proj Pts ↓ | Ceiling | Floor | Injury | PIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenST | QB | BUF | LV | 23.9 | 32.2 | 15.5 | PROBABLE | — |
| Bryce YoungST | QB | CAR | PHI | 19.8 | 26.7 | 12.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Matthew StaffordST | QB | LAR | ARI | 19.4 | 26.1 | 12.6 | PROBABLE | — |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaST | WR | SEA | DEN | 18.6 | 27.9 | 9.3 | PROBABLE | — |
| Brock PurdyST | QB | SF | WAS | 18.0 | 24.3 | 11.7 | PROBABLE | — |
| Kenneth Walker IIIST | RB | KC | LAC | 18.0 | 26.9 | 9.0 | PROBABLE | — |
| Christian McCaffreyST | RB | SF | WAS | 17.7 | 26.5 | 8.8 | PROBABLE | — |
| Bijan RobinsonST | RB | ATL | CHI | 17.7 | 26.5 | 8.8 | PROBABLE | — |
8 players
Showing 8 of 307 — free, always.
Pro opens the full board, plus edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, the cross-market scanner and agent access over MCP. 26% off your first year ($111) — code applies automatically, ends Dec 31.
Drafting this weekend? Get the Monday post-draft board free — every pick our model disagreed with.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Proj Pts — Half-PPR projected fantasy points · Ceiling / Floor — 90th / 10th percentile outcomes · PIS — Player Importance Score (injury impact on team DAEPA)
Our projections against the live Kalshi prop board. Every priced strike →
NFL player projections — FAQ
How are these NFL player projections calculated?
Each projection starts from a player’s multi-year usage and efficiency, adjusts for the specific defense they face using Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), and applies a Player Importance Score that models how depth-chart injuries shift expected volume. The result is a half-PPR point projection with a 90th-percentile ceiling and a 10th-percentile floor.
What is a Player Importance Score (PIS)?
PIS estimates how much a given player’s presence or absence changes their team’s overall DAEPA efficiency. It’s how an injury to a lineman, a quarterback, or a target-hogging receiver ripples through the projections of everyone around them — a backup running back’s ceiling rises when the starter is out, and a receiver’s floor drops when his quarterback is questionable.
How often do the projections update?
Off-season they refresh monthly as rosters and depth charts change. Once the regular season starts they update weekly, incorporating the latest matchup and injury-report information before each slate.
Which scoring formats are supported, and what does half-PPR mean?
Half-PPR (half point per reception) is a common fantasy scoring format where each catch is worth 0.5 points on top of yardage and touchdown scoring — it sits between standard scoring and full-PPR. These weekly projections are published in half-PPR. Our season-long draft board supports all three: standard, half-PPR and full-PPR, selectable on the free Fantasy Draft Kit and via the scoring parameter on our MCP draft tools.
The draft’s over. Your agent isn’t.
The same connector now prices the season: every Kalshi prop this week venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole model distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
More NFL Markets
- NFL Week 6 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 5 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Will Derrick Henry score a TD? Live Kalshi odds → — Henry anytime TD, 2+ TDs and rushing-yard prices for every Ravens game, plus his TD record vs the market
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Who owned the backfield in 2025
All NFL stat tiles →RB opportunity share
2025 regular season
Bell cows vs. committee — share of team backfield opportunities (carries + targets), colored by efficiency.