NFL WEEK 1

Model vs. Kalshi on all 16 openers

Week 1 markets live now

NFL EDGES

Live game edges — model vs. Kalshi, ranked

Gridiron Edge · 5-min refresh

NFL 2026

Power rankings, futures & win totals — all 32 teams

FOMC SEPT 16

Kalshi, Polymarket and futures disagree on the Fed

Decision Wed 2pm ET

COMBO EDGE

Correlation-aware Kalshi combos — free

2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 1 model lines vs. Kalshi

Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 1 game priced against the live prediction market.

Week 1 edges →

Free through Week 1. The full board is open — no signup. From September 15 the top 8 rows stay free and the rest becomes part of Pro. Game edges at /nfl/edges stay free permanently. Contracts trade on Kalshi.

Gridiron EdgePlayer ProjectionsPRO

NFL Player Projections

2026 · Week 1 · DAEPA matchup + injury adjusted · Half-PPR

Board last written Sep 12, 2026. Updated monthly off-season as rosters change — weekly once the season starts.

BETA

These are matchup-adjusted fantasy projections for every NFL skill player — quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and tight ends — built on the same Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA) engine that powers our game edges and win totals. For each player we start from multi-year usage and efficiency, adjust for the specific defense they face that week, and layer in a Player Importance Score (PIS) that models how injuries up and down the depth chart move a player's expected volume. The output is a half-PPR point projection with a 90th-percentile ceiling and 10th-percentile floor, so you can see the range of outcomes, not just the median.

Off-season, the board is a monthly snapshot that moves on roster and depth-chart news; once the season starts it refreshes weekly as matchups and injury reports land. Use it to settle start/sit calls, find where our number diverges from consensus, and pair it with the usage stat tiles to understand why a player is projected where they are.

Watch: why Omarion Hampton is a 2026 breakout — backfield opportunity, the DAEPA matchup read, and the projection that follows.

PlayerPosTeamOppProj Pts CeilingFloorInjuryPIS
Romeo DoubsSTWRNESEA22.433.511.2PROBABLE
Josh AllenSTQBBUFHOU19.326.112.6PROBABLE
Christian McCaffreySTRBSFLAR18.127.19.1PROBABLE
Trevor LawrenceSTQBJAXCLE17.924.211.7PROBABLE
Malik WillisSTQBMIALV17.924.111.6PROBABLE
Brock PurdySTQBSFLAR17.824.111.6PROBABLE
Bo NixSTQBDENKC16.822.610.9PROBABLE
Justin HerbertSTQBLACARI16.722.510.8PROBABLE
Jalen HurtsSTQBPHIWAS16.522.310.7PROBABLE
Drake MayeSTQBNESEA16.422.210.7PROBABLE
Kyler MurraySTQBMINGB16.422.110.6PROBABLE
Dak PrescottSTQBDALNYG16.221.910.6PROBABLE
Jacoby BrissettSTQBARILAC16.221.910.5PROBABLE
Bijan RobinsonSTRBATLPIT16.224.38.1PROBABLE
Joe BurrowSTQBCINTB16.121.710.4PROBABLE
Jaxson DartSTQBNYGDAL15.921.510.4PROBABLE
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSTWRSEANE15.923.98.0PROBABLE
Matthew StaffordSTQBLARSF15.821.310.3PROBABLE
De'Von AchaneSTRBMIALV15.723.67.9PROBABLE
Baker MayfieldSTQBTBCIN15.721.210.2PROBABLE
Jared GoffSTQBDETNO15.721.210.2PROBABLE
Jahmyr GibbsSTRBDETNO15.222.97.6PROBABLE
Daniel JonesSTQBINDBAL15.220.59.9PROBABLE
Jayden DanielsSTQBWASPHI15.220.59.9PROBABLE
Lamar JacksonSTQBBALIND15.120.49.8PROBABLE
Jonathan TaylorSTRBINDBAL14.922.47.5PROBABLE
Caleb WilliamsSTQBCHICAR14.920.19.7PROBABLE
Puka NacuaSTWRLARSF14.321.47.2PROBABLE
Patrick MahomesSTQBKCDEN14.119.09.2QUESTIONABLE
Deshaun WatsonSTQBCLEJAX13.818.68.9PROBABLE
Chase BrownSTRBCINTB13.720.56.8PROBABLE
Jordan LoveSTQBGBMIN13.618.48.9PROBABLE
Saquon BarkleySTRBPHIWAS13.620.46.8PROBABLE
Tyler ShoughSTQBNODET13.318.08.7PROBABLE
Amon-Ra St. BrownSTWRDETNO13.320.06.7PROBABLE
C.J. StroudSTQBHOUBUF13.317.98.6PROBABLE
Drake LondonSTWRATLPIT13.119.66.5PROBABLE
Aaron RodgersSTQBPITATL13.017.68.5PROBABLE
Ja'Marr ChaseSTWRCINTB13.019.46.5PROBABLE
Kyren WilliamsSTRBLARSF12.819.26.4PROBABLE
Cam WardSTQBTENNYJ12.717.28.3PROBABLE
Bryce YoungSTQBCARCHI12.516.98.1PROBABLE
Bucky IrvingSTRBTBCIN12.418.66.2PROBABLE
CeeDee LambSTWRDALNYG12.318.46.1PROBABLE
Garrett WilsonSTWRNYJTEN12.218.46.1PROBABLE
Geno SmithSTQBNYJTEN12.216.47.9PROBABLE
Nico CollinsSTWRHOUBUF12.118.26.0PROBABLE
James CookSTRBBUFHOU12.118.16.0PROBABLE
Omarion HamptonSTRBLACARI12.018.16.0PROBABLE
Derrick HenrySTRBBALIND12.018.06.0PROBABLE
Carnell TateSTWRTENNYJ11.917.96.0PROBABLE
Chris OlaveSTWRNODET11.917.96.0PROBABLE
Davante AdamsWRLARSF11.817.65.9PROBABLE
Breece HallSTRBNYJTEN11.717.65.8PROBABLE
Justin JeffersonSTWRMINGB11.717.65.8PROBABLE
George PickensWRDALNYG11.617.55.8PROBABLE
Tony PollardSTRBTENNYJ11.617.45.8PROBABLE
Cam SkatteboSTRBNYGDAL11.617.45.8PROBABLE
Terry McLaurinSTWRWASPHI11.617.35.8PROBABLE
Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTENNYJ11.417.15.7PROBABLE
DeVonta SmithSTWRPHIWAS11.417.15.7PROBABLE
Tetairoa McMillanSTWRCARCHI11.417.05.7PROBABLE
Jaylen WarrenSTRBPITATL11.317.05.7PROBABLE
Javonte WilliamsSTRBDALNYG11.316.95.6PROBABLE
Jaylen WaddleSTWRDENKC11.216.95.6PROBABLE
Quinshon JudkinsSTRBCLEJAX10.916.45.5PROBABLE
Ashton JeantySTRBLVMIA10.816.35.4QUESTIONABLE
Mike EvansSTWRSFLAR10.816.15.4PROBABLE
Travis EtienneSTRBNODET10.716.05.3PROBABLE
Christian WatsonSTWRGBMIN10.716.05.3PROBABLE
Rashee RiceSTWRKCDEN10.716.05.3PROBABLE
Kirk CousinsSTQBLVMIA10.614.46.9PROBABLE
D'Andre SwiftSTRBCHICAR10.515.85.3PROBABLE
Tee HigginsWRCINTB10.515.85.3PROBABLE
Courtland SuttonWRDENKC10.415.75.2PROBABLE
Emeka EgbukaSTWRTBCIN10.415.65.2PROBABLE
J.K. DobbinsSTRBDENKC10.315.55.2PROBABLE
Jameson WilliamsWRDETNO10.315.45.1PROBABLE
Rico DowdleRBPITATL10.215.45.1PROBABLE
Rashid ShaheedWRSEANE10.215.35.1PROBABLE
DK MetcalfSTWRPITATL10.115.25.1PROBABLE
Stefon DiggsWRWASPHI10.115.25.1PROBABLE
Jordan AddisonWRMINGB10.015.05.0PROBABLE
Adonai MitchellWRNYJTEN9.914.95.0PROBABLE
Zay FlowersSTWRBALIND9.914.95.0QUESTIONABLE
Parker WashingtonSTWRJAXCLE9.914.95.0PROBABLE
Quentin JohnstonWRLACARI9.914.95.0PROBABLE
Deebo Samuel Sr.WRSFLAR9.914.84.9PROBABLE
Michael WilsonWRARILAC9.814.74.9PROBABLE
Trey McBrideSTTEARILAC9.714.05.3PROBABLE
Ladd McConkeySTWRLACARI9.614.44.8PROBABLE
Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAXCLE9.614.44.8PROBABLE
Malik NabersSTWRNYGDAL9.314.04.7QUESTIONABLE
Kenny GainwellRBTBCIN9.313.94.6PROBABLE
Jadarian PriceSTRBSEANE9.313.94.6PROBABLE
Marvin Harrison Jr.STWRARILAC9.313.94.6PROBABLE
Michael PittmanWRPITATL9.313.94.6PROBABLE
Kyle PittsSTTEATLPIT9.013.04.9PROBABLE
Kayshon BoutteWRHOUBUF8.913.34.4PROBABLE
Alec PierceSTWRINDBAL8.713.04.3QUESTIONABLE
Jayden ReedWRGBMIN8.612.94.3PROBABLE
Jalen CokerWRCARCHI8.612.94.3PROBABLE
DJ MooreSTWRBUFHOU8.612.84.3PROBABLE
Chuba HubbardSTRBCARCHI8.512.84.3PROBABLE
Tre TuckerSTWRLVMIA8.512.84.3PROBABLE
Josh DownsWRINDBAL8.512.74.2PROBABLE
Aaron JonesSTRBMINGB8.412.74.2PROBABLE
Jerry JeudySTWRCLEJAX8.412.74.2PROBABLE
Tyrone Tracy Jr.RBNYGDAL8.412.64.2PROBABLE
Rhamondre StevensonSTRBNESEA8.412.64.2PROBABLE
Tyler WarrenSTTEINDBAL8.412.14.6PROBABLE
RJ HarveyRBDENKC8.412.54.2PROBABLE
Darnell MooneyWRNYGDAL8.312.54.2PROBABLE
David MontgomerySTRBHOUBUF8.312.54.2PROBABLE
Chris Godwin Jr.WRTBCIN8.312.44.1PROBABLE
Woody MarksRBHOUBUF8.212.44.1PROBABLE
Jeremiyah LoveSTRBARILAC8.212.24.1QUESTIONABLE
Harold Fannin Jr.STTECLEJAX8.111.84.5PROBABLE
Rome OdunzeSTWRCHICAR8.112.24.1QUESTIONABLE
Hunter HenrySTTENESEA8.111.74.4PROBABLE
Dallas GoedertSTTEPHIWAS8.011.74.4PROBABLE
Jordan MasonRBMINGB8.012.14.0PROBABLE
Luther Burden IIIWRCHICAR8.012.14.0PROBABLE
Colston LovelandSTTECHICAR8.011.64.4PROBABLE
Devaughn VeleWRNODET7.911.94.0PROBABLE
Omar Cooper Jr.WRNYJTEN7.911.94.0PROBABLE
Travis KelceSTTEKCDEN7.911.54.4PROBABLE
Juwan JohnsonSTTENODET7.911.54.4PROBABLE
Sam LaPortaSTTEDETNO7.911.44.3PROBABLE
Xavier WorthyWRKCDEN7.811.83.9PROBABLE
KC ConcepcionWRCLEJAX7.811.83.9PROBABLE
Denzel BostonWRCLEJAX7.811.83.9PROBABLE
Jalen NailorWRLVMIA7.811.73.9PROBABLE
Makai LemonWRPHIWAS7.811.73.9PROBABLE
Darren WallerSTTECARCHI7.811.34.3PROBABLE
Germie BernardWRPITATL7.711.53.8PROBABLE
Kimani VidalRBLACARI7.711.53.8PROBABLE
Dalton SchultzSTTEHOUBUF7.510.94.2PROBABLE
Travis HunterWRJAXCLE7.411.23.7PROBABLE
Dalton KincaidSTTEBUFHOU7.410.84.1PROBABLE
Tyjae SpearsRBTENNYJ7.411.13.7PROBABLE
Kenneth Walker IIISTRBKCDEN7.411.13.7QUESTIONABLE
Dontayvion WicksWRPHIWAS7.311.03.7PROBABLE
Mark AndrewsSTTEBALIND7.310.54.0PROBABLE
Jauan JenningsWRMINGB7.210.93.6PROBABLE
Brenton StrangeSTTEJAXCLE7.210.43.9PROBABLE
Rashod BatemanWRBALIND7.210.73.6PROBABLE
Oronde Gadsden IISTTELACARI7.110.33.9PROBABLE
Cade OttonSTTETBCIN7.110.43.9PROBABLE
Mason TaylorSTTENYJTEN7.110.33.9PROBABLE
Darius SlaytonWRNYGDAL7.010.53.5PROBABLE
Bam KnightRBARILAC7.010.53.5PROBABLE
Kyle MonangaiRBCHICAR7.010.53.5PROBABLE
George KittleSTTESFLAR7.010.13.8QUESTIONABLE
Greg DulcichSTTEMIALV7.010.13.8PROBABLE
Khalil ShakirWRBUFHOU6.810.23.4QUESTIONABLE
AJ BarnerSTTESEANE6.79.73.7PROBABLE
Jahan DotsonWRATLPIT6.710.03.3PROBABLE
Isaiah LikelySTTENYGDAL6.79.73.7PROBABLE
Keenan AllenWRINDBAL6.69.93.3PROBABLE
Jake FergusonSTTEDALNYG6.69.63.6PROBABLE
Malik WashingtonSTWRMIALV6.39.53.2PROBABLE
T.J. HockensonSTTEMINGB6.39.23.5PROBABLE
Terrance FergusonSTTELARSF6.39.23.5PROBABLE
Tucker KraftSTTEGBMIN6.39.13.4QUESTIONABLE
Chig OkonkwoSTTEWASPHI6.29.03.4PROBABLE
Blake CorumRBLARSF6.29.23.1PROBABLE
Theo JohnsonTENYGDAL6.18.93.4PROBABLE
Pat FreiermuthSTTEPITATL6.18.83.3PROBABLE
Cooper RushSTQBATLPIT6.08.13.9PROBABLE
Mack HollinsWRNESEA6.09.03.0PROBABLE
Evan EngramSTTEDENKC6.08.73.3PROBABLE
Mike GesickiSTTECINTB5.98.53.2PROBABLE
Michael MayerSTTELVMIA5.98.53.2PROBABLE
Calvin RidleyWRTENNYJ5.88.72.9PROBABLE
Elic AyomanorWRTENNYJ5.88.72.9PROBABLE
Cooper KuppWRSEANE5.88.72.9PROBABLE
Jakobi MeyersWRJAXCLE5.88.62.9QUESTIONABLE
Justice HillRBBALIND5.78.62.9PROBABLE
Samaje PerineRBCINTB5.78.52.8PROBABLE
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RBJAXCLE5.68.52.8PROBABLE
Bhayshul TutenSTRBJAXCLE5.68.42.8PROBABLE
Jaylen WrightRBMIALV5.58.32.8PROBABLE
Dylan SampsonRBCLEJAX5.58.32.8PROBABLE
Troy FranklinWRDENKC5.48.12.7PROBABLE
Tyler AllgeierRBARILAC5.48.12.7PROBABLE
Jacory Croskey-MerrittSTRBWASPHI5.48.02.7QUESTIONABLE
Marquise BrownWRPHIWAS5.38.02.7PROBABLE
Gunnar HelmSTTETENNYJ5.27.62.9PROBABLE
John Metchie IIIWRCARCHI5.27.82.6PROBABLE
Tyquan ThorntonWRKCDEN5.27.82.6PROBABLE
Kendrick BourneWRARILAC5.17.72.6PROBABLE
Xavier LegetteWRCARCHI5.07.52.5PROBABLE
Emanuel WilsonRBSEANE5.07.52.5PROBABLE
Ryan FlournoyWRDALNYG5.07.52.5PROBABLE
Rachaad WhiteRBWASPHI5.07.42.5QUESTIONABLE
Kenyon SadiqTENYJTEN4.97.22.7PROBABLE
Olamide ZaccheausWRATLPIT4.77.12.4PROBABLE
Matthew GoldenWRGBMIN4.66.92.3PROBABLE
Keon ColemanWRBUFHOU4.66.92.3QUESTIONABLE
Colby ParkinsonTELARSF4.66.62.5PROBABLE
Pat BryantWRDENKC4.56.82.3PROBABLE
Devin SingletaryRBNYGDAL4.56.82.3PROBABLE
Isaiah WilliamsWRNYJTEN4.56.82.3PROBABLE
Xavier HutchinsonWRHOUBUF4.56.72.2PROBABLE
Josh PalmerWRBUFHOU4.46.62.2PROBABLE
Isaiah BondWRCLEJAX4.46.62.2PROBABLE
KhaDarel HodgeWRSFLAR4.46.62.2PROBABLE
Dawson KnoxTEBUFHOU4.46.42.4PROBABLE
Tyler HigbeeTELARSF4.46.42.4PROBABLE
Andrei IosivasWRCINTB4.46.62.2PROBABLE
Darnell WashingtonTEPITATL4.46.42.4PROBABLE
David NjokuTELACARI4.46.32.4PROBABLE
Bo MeltonWRGBMIN4.36.52.2PROBABLE
Raheim SandersRBCLEJAX4.36.52.2PROBABLE
Treylon BurksWRWASPHI4.36.52.2PROBABLE
Najee HarrisRBNYGDAL4.36.52.2PROBABLE
Emari DemercadoRBDALNYG4.36.52.2PROBABLE
DeMario DouglasWRNESEA4.36.52.1PROBABLE
Ted HurstWRTBCIN4.36.42.1PROBABLE
Malachi FieldsWRNYGDAL4.36.42.1PROBABLE
Tank BigsbyRBPHIWAS4.26.42.1PROBABLE
Cole KmetTECHICAR4.26.22.3PROBABLE
Ja'Kobi LaneWRBALIND4.26.32.1PROBABLE
Brian RobinsonRBATLPIT4.26.32.1PROBABLE
Zavion ThomasWRCHICAR4.26.32.1PROBABLE
Antonio WilliamsWRWASPHI4.26.32.1PROBABLE
Chris BellWRMIALV4.26.32.1PROBABLE
Caleb DouglasWRMIALV4.26.32.1PROBABLE
Chimere DikeWRTENNYJ4.16.22.1PROBABLE
Ray DavisRBBUFHOU4.06.02.0PROBABLE
Braelon AllenRBNYJTEN4.06.02.0PROBABLE
Jalen TolbertWRMIALV4.05.92.0PROBABLE
Jake TongesTESFLAR3.95.72.1QUESTIONABLE
Dyami BrownWRWASPHI3.95.81.9PROBABLE
Isaiah DavisRBNYJTEN3.95.81.9PROBABLE
Brashard SmithRBKCDEN3.85.81.9PROBABLE
Jalen McMillanWRTBCIN3.85.81.9QUESTIONABLE
Jahdae WalkerWRCHICAR3.85.71.9PROBABLE
Jack BechWRLVMIA3.75.61.9PROBABLE
Brock WrightTEDETNO3.65.32.0PROBABLE
Daniel BellingerTETENNYJ3.65.22.0PROBABLE
Noah FantTENODET3.65.22.0PROBABLE
Austin HooperTEATLPIT3.55.11.9PROBABLE
KaVontae TurpinWRDALNYG3.55.31.8PROBABLE
Roman WilsonWRPITATL3.55.31.8PROBABLE
Elijah ArroyoTESEANE3.55.11.9PROBABLE
Keaton MitchellRBLACARI3.55.31.8QUESTIONABLE
Cade StoverTEHOUBUF3.55.01.9PROBABLE
Kalif RaymondWRCHICAR3.55.21.7PROBABLE
Luke McCaffreyWRWASPHI3.55.21.7PROBABLE
Tez JohnsonWRTBCIN3.55.21.7PROBABLE
Jonnu SmithTEGBMIN3.55.01.9PROBABLE
Kaelon BlackRBSFLAR3.55.21.7PROBABLE
Tommy TrembleTECARCHI3.45.01.9PROBABLE
Noah GrayTEKCDEN3.45.01.9PROBABLE
Jaylin LaneWRWASPHI3.45.01.7PROBABLE
Isaac TeSlaaWRDETNO3.45.01.7PROBABLE
Chris BrooksRBGBMIN3.35.01.7PROBABLE
George HolaniRBSEANE3.34.91.6PROBABLE
Ashton DulinWRINDBAL3.34.91.6PROBABLE
Demarcus RobinsonWRSFLAR3.34.91.6PROBABLE
Lil'Jordan HumphreyWRDENKC3.34.91.6PROBABLE
Xavier SmithWRLARSF3.34.91.6PROBABLE
Zachariah BranchWRATLPIT3.24.81.6QUESTIONABLE
Ja'Tavion SandersTECARCHI3.24.61.8PROBABLE
Sean TuckerRBTBCIN3.24.81.6QUESTIONABLE
Marvin Mims Jr.WRDENKC3.14.71.6QUESTIONABLE
Elijah HigginsTEARILAC3.14.51.7PROBABLE
Kendre MillerRBNODET3.14.61.5QUESTIONABLE
Corey KinerRBNESEA3.14.61.5PROBABLE
Jordan WhittingtonWRLARSF3.14.61.5PROBABLE
Josh OliverTEMINGB3.04.41.7PROBABLE
DJ GiddensRBINDBAL3.04.51.5PROBABLE
Ty JohnsonRBBUFHOU3.04.41.5QUESTIONABLE
Adam TrautmanTEDENKC3.04.31.6PROBABLE
Rasheen AliRBBALIND2.94.31.4PROBABLE
Jaylin NoelWRHOUBUF2.84.31.4QUESTIONABLE
Brycen TremayneWRCARCHI2.84.21.4PROBABLE
Darius CooperWRPHIWAS2.84.21.4PROBABLE
Kyle WilliamsWRNESEA2.84.21.4PROBABLE
Ian ThomasTELVMIA2.84.01.5PROBABLE
Mo Alie-CoxTEINDBAL2.74.01.5PROBABLE
Tre HarrisWRLACARI2.74.01.3QUESTIONABLE
Konata MumpfieldWRLARSF2.74.01.3PROBABLE
Jeremy RuckertTENYJTEN2.63.81.4PROBABLE
Hunter LongTEARILAC2.63.81.4PROBABLE
Sam RoushTECHICAR2.63.81.4PROBABLE
Marlin KleinTEHOUBUF2.63.81.4PROBABLE
Eli RaridonTENESEA2.63.71.4PROBABLE
Nate BoerkircherTEJAXCLE2.53.71.4PROBABLE
Hunter LuepkeRBDALNYG2.53.81.3PROBABLE
Luke SchoonmakerTEDALNYG2.53.71.4PROBABLE
Tyler BadieRBDENKC2.53.81.3PROBABLE
Ameer AbdullahRBJAXCLE2.53.81.3PROBABLE
Will ShipleyRBPHIWAS2.43.71.2PROBABLE
Charlie KolarTELACARI2.43.51.3PROBABLE
Elijah MooreWRPHIWAS2.43.61.2PROBABLE
Jimmy Horn Jr.WRCARCHI2.43.61.2PROBABLE
Ollie Gordon IIRBMIALV2.43.61.2QUESTIONABLE
Mitchell EvansTECARCHI2.43.51.3PROBABLE
John BatesTEWASPHI2.43.41.3QUESTIONABLE
Malachi CorleyWRCLEJAX2.43.51.2PROBABLE
Tahj BrooksRBCINTB2.33.41.1PROBABLE
Jackson HawesTEBUFHOU2.33.31.2PROBABLE
Johnny MundtTEPHIWAS2.23.31.2PROBABLE
Andrew BeckRBNYJTEN2.23.31.1PROBABLE
Kaleb JohnsonRBGBMIN2.23.31.1PROBABLE
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWRLACARI2.13.21.1PROBABLE
Nate AdkinsTEDENKC2.13.01.1PROBABLE
Tyler ConklinTEDETNO2.03.01.1PROBABLE
Kyle JuszczykRBSFLAR2.03.11.0QUESTIONABLE
British BrooksRBHOUBUF2.03.01.0QUESTIONABLE
Oscar DelpTENODET2.02.91.1QUESTIONABLE
Eli StowersTEPHIWAS2.02.91.1QUESTIONABLE
Will KacmarekTEMIALV2.02.91.1QUESTIONABLE
Luke FarrellTESFLAR2.02.91.1PROBABLE
Arian SmithWRNYJTEN2.03.01.0PROBABLE
Tim PatrickWRNYJTEN2.03.01.0QUESTIONABLE
AJ DillonRBCARCHI2.03.01.0PROBABLE
Drew SampleTECINTB2.02.91.1PROBABLE
Ben SinnottTEWASPHI2.02.91.1QUESTIONABLE
Alec IngoldRBLACARI1.92.80.9PROBABLE
Davis AllenTELARSF1.92.71.0QUESTIONABLE
Brevyn Spann-FordTEDALNYG1.92.71.0PROBABLE
Foster MoreauTEHOUBUF1.82.71.0PROBABLE
Bryce LanceWRNODET1.82.70.9PROBABLE
Barion BrownWRNODET1.82.70.9PROBABLE
Malik BensonWRLVMIA1.72.60.8PROBABLE
Elijah SarrattWRBALIND1.72.60.8PROBABLE
Kevin Coleman Jr.WRMIALV1.72.50.8PROBABLE
Reggie VirgilWRARILAC1.72.50.8PROBABLE
Colbie YoungWRCINTB1.72.50.8PROBABLE
Cyrus AllenWRKCDEN1.72.50.8PROBABLE
Skyler BellWRBUFHOU1.72.50.8PROBABLE
Kaden WetjenWRPITATL1.72.50.8PROBABLE
Emmanuel Henderson Jr.WRSEANE1.72.50.8PROBABLE
Josh CameronWRJAXCLE1.72.50.8PROBABLE
Julius ChestnutRBTENNYJ1.62.40.8PROBABLE
Connor HeywardRBLVMIA1.62.40.8PROBABLE
LeQuint Allen Jr.RBJAXCLE1.52.30.8QUESTIONABLE
Nicholas SingletonRBTENNYJ1.32.00.7PROBABLE
Mike Washington Jr.RBLVMIA1.32.00.7PROBABLE
Demond ClaiborneRBMINGB1.32.00.7PROBABLE
Brenen ThompsonWRLACARI1.31.90.7QUESTIONABLE
Emmett JohnsonRBKCDEN1.31.90.7PROBABLE
Jonah ColemanRBDENKC1.32.00.7PROBABLE
Kaytron AllenRBWASPHI1.31.90.6PROBABLE
Josh CuevasTEBALIND0.81.20.4PROBABLE
Bauer SharpTETBCIN0.81.20.4PROBABLE
Matthew HibnerTEBALIND0.81.20.4PROBABLE
Max BredesonTEMINGB0.81.20.4PROBABLE
Seydou TraoreTEMIALV0.81.10.4PROBABLE
Justin JolyTEDENKC0.81.10.4PROBABLE
Tanner KoziolTEJAXCLE0.81.10.4PROBABLE
Riley NowakowskiTEPITATL0.81.10.4PROBABLE
Fernando MendozaQBLVMIA0.81.00.5PROBABLE
Joe FlaccoQBCINTB0.71.00.5PROBABLE
Carson WentzQBMINGB0.71.00.5PROBABLE
Justin FieldsQBKCDEN0.71.00.5PROBABLE
Mac JonesQBSFLAR0.71.00.5PROBABLE
Shedeur SandersQBCLEJAX0.70.90.4PROBABLE
Tyrod TaylorQBGBMIN0.60.90.4PROBABLE
Lewis BondWRHOUBUF0.60.90.3PROBABLE
Anthony SmithWRDALNYG0.60.90.3PROBABLE
Deion BurksWRINDBAL0.60.90.3PROBABLE
CJ WilliamsWRJAXCLE0.60.90.3PROBABLE
Drew AllarQBPITATL0.60.80.4PROBABLE
Davis MillsQBHOUBUF0.60.80.4PROBABLE
Cade KlubnikQBNYJTEN0.60.70.4PROBABLE
Brady CookQBMIALV0.60.70.4PROBABLE
Seth McGowanRBINDBAL0.50.80.3PROBABLE
Eli HeidenreichRBPITATL0.50.80.3PROBABLE
Spencer RattlerQBNODET0.50.70.3PROBABLE
Taylen GreenQBCLEJAX0.50.70.3PROBABLE
Jam MillerRBNESEA0.50.80.3PROBABLE
Cole PaytonQBPHIWAS0.50.70.3PROBABLE
J.J. McCarthyQBMINGB0.50.70.3QUESTIONABLE
Jameis WinstonQBNYGDAL0.50.70.3PROBABLE
Garrett NussmeierQBKCDEN0.50.60.3PROBABLE
Athan KaliakmanisQBWASPHI0.50.60.3PROBABLE
Marcus MariotaQBWASPHI0.40.60.3QUESTIONABLE
Carson BeckQBARILAC0.40.60.3QUESTIONABLE
Tanner McKeeQBPHIWAS0.40.60.3PROBABLE
Riley LeonardQBINDBAL0.40.60.3PROBABLE
Quinn EwersQBJAXCLE0.40.60.3PROBABLE
Tyler HuntleyQBBALIND0.40.60.3PROBABLE
Aidan O'ConnellQBLVMIA0.40.50.3PROBABLE
Trey LanceQBLACARI0.30.50.2PROBABLE
Carsen RyanTECLEJAX0.30.50.2PROBABLE
Jack EndriesTECINTB0.30.50.2PROBABLE
Dallen BentleyTEDENKC0.30.50.2PROBABLE
Mitchell TrubiskyQBTENNYJ0.30.40.2PROBABLE
Andy DaltonQBPHIWAS0.30.40.2PROBABLE
Mason RudolphQBPITATL0.20.30.1PROBABLE
Kene NwangwuRBNYJTEN0.20.20.1DOUBTFUL
Kenny PickettQBCARCHI0.10.20.1PROBABLE
Adam RandallRBBALIND0.00.00.0OUT
Alvin KamaraRBNODET0.00.00.0OUT
Malik DavisRBDALNYG0.00.00.0OUT
Max KlareTELARSF0.00.00.0OUT
A.J. BrownWRNESEA0.00.00.0OUT
CJ DanielsWRLARSF0.00.00.0OUT
De'Zhaun StriblingWRSFLAR0.00.00.0OUT
Chris Brazzell IIWRCARCHI0.00.00.0OUT
Kendrick LawWRDETNO0.00.00.0OUT
Jordyn TysonWRNODET0.00.00.0OUT
Joe RoyerTECLEJAX0.00.00.0OUT
Jaren KanakTETENNYJ0.00.00.0OUT
Brock BowersTELVMIA0.00.00.0OUT
Michael Penix Jr.QBATLPIT0.00.00.0OUT
Tua TagovailoaQBATLPIT0.00.00.0OUT
Ty SimpsonQBLARSF0.00.00.0OUT
Behren MortonQBNESEA0.00.00.0OUT
Sam DarnoldQBSEANE0.00.00.0OUT
Audric EstiméRBNODET0.00.00.0OUT

416 players

Drafting this weekend? Get the Monday post-draft board free — every pick our model disagreed with.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Proj Pts — Half-PPR projected fantasy points · Ceiling / Floor — 90th / 10th percentile outcomes · PIS — Player Importance Score (injury impact on team DAEPA)

Full methodology →

Who owns the backfield

All NFL stat tiles →

RB opportunity share

Bell cows vs. committee — share of team backfield opportunities (carries + targets), colored by efficiency.

NFL player projections — FAQ

How are these NFL player projections calculated?

Each projection starts from a player’s multi-year usage and efficiency, adjusts for the specific defense they face using Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), and applies a Player Importance Score that models how depth-chart injuries shift expected volume. The result is a half-PPR point projection with a 90th-percentile ceiling and a 10th-percentile floor.

What is a Player Importance Score (PIS)?

PIS estimates how much a given player’s presence or absence changes their team’s overall DAEPA efficiency. It’s how an injury to a lineman, a quarterback, or a target-hogging receiver ripples through the projections of everyone around them — a backup running back’s ceiling rises when the starter is out, and a receiver’s floor drops when his quarterback is questionable.

How often do the projections update?

Off-season they refresh monthly as rosters and depth charts change. Once the regular season starts they update weekly, incorporating the latest matchup and injury-report information before each slate.

Which scoring formats are supported, and what does half-PPR mean?

Half-PPR (half point per reception) is a common fantasy scoring format where each catch is worth 0.5 points on top of yardage and touchdown scoring — it sits between standard scoring and full-PPR. These weekly projections are published in half-PPR. Our season-long draft board supports all three: standard, half-PPR and full-PPR, selectable on the free Fantasy Draft Kit and via the scoring parameter on our MCP draft tools.

The draft’s over. Your agent isn’t.

The same connector now prices the season: every Kalshi prop this week venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole model distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

See it run — connect once, then call this tool from your agent. Watch on YouTube
See the in-season NFL tools →Setup guide →Fantasy draft desk? Parked until the 2027 offseason.

More NFL Markets