July 2026 FOMC Meeting — Decision & Market Recap
What prediction markets priced going into the Jul 28–29, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and what the Committee actually did.
Decision: the Fed left rates unchanged
Held at 3.50–3.75%. 9–3 vote; Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented in favor of a 25bp hike.
This market has settled. See live odds for Oct 27–28, 2026.
Quick Answer
the Jul 28–29, 2026 FOMC meeting has already happened — the Committee left rates unchanged. Its Kalshi KXFED contracts have settled, so the odds below are the final pre-decision snapshot, kept as a record of what the market expected. For live odds, see the Oct 27–28, 2026 meeting.
See the full KXFED ladder →Jul 28–29, 2026
No market data yetKalshi Fed rate market data will appear here once trading begins.
The case for each side
Jul 28–29, 2026- •Core CPI prints 0.3% MoM or hotter again — inflation not cooling
- •Energy prices keep feeding headline inflation
- •Payrolls solid (NFP 150K+) with unemployment flat
- •Chair and dots keep signalling more tightening is needed
- •Core CPI at or below 0.2% MoM — the last move is working
- •Payrolls weak or unemployment rising
- •Energy prices roll over and headline inflation cools
- •Chair signals patience at the press conference
The leading outcome is listed first. Odds update as economic data prints.
Key Dates
Trade the Oct 27–28, 2026 Fed decision
The contract for this meeting has settled. Kalshi’s KXFED ladder is live for the next one — take a position on cut, hold, or hike. New accounts get a sign-up bonus through our referral.
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What the Fed Did at the July 2026 FOMC Meeting
The Jul 28–29, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting is one of 8 scheduled FOMC meetings in 2026 where the Fed sets the federal funds rate target range. Prediction markets on Kalshi allow traders to take a position on the outcome — cut 50bp, cut 25bp, hold, hike 25bp, or hike 50bp — with each contract price reflecting the market-implied probability of that outcome.
Unlike opinion polls or analyst forecasts, prediction market prices are backed by real money. When a contract trades at 65¢, market participants are collectively saying there is a 65% probability of that rate decision. As new economic data arrives — CPI, NFP, PCE, GDP — the price moves, and every day's close is kept in the archive so you can see what each print did.
How to Trade the July 2026 FOMC Meeting
The best edge comes from correctly anticipating how upcoming indicator releases will shift the odds. Before a CPI print, ask: if inflation comes in hotter than consensus, how much should cut probability fall? Each indicator's sensitivity page gives the typical move per surprise. If Kalshi doesn't move as much as that history says it should — or Polymarket and futures disagree — that gap is the trade.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the Fed decide at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?
At the Jul 28–29, 2026 FOMC meeting the Committee left rates unchanged. Held at 3.50–3.75%. 9–3 vote; Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented in favor of a 25bp hike. This page keeps the final pre-decision Kalshi KXFED snapshot as a record of what prediction markets expected going in.
Did prediction markets get the July 2026 Fed decision right?
This page shows the last KXFED snapshot taken before the announcement, so you can compare what the market priced against what the Committee actually did. Our running tally across every meeting we hold pre-decision data for is on the Fed Rate Tracker hub — market data begins July 2026, so the sample is deliberately small rather than backfilled.
Where can I trade the next FOMC decision on Kalshi?
The Jul 28–29, 2026 contracts have settled. Kalshi's KXFED ladder for the Oct 27–28, 2026 meeting is live now — it lists a threshold contract per rate outcome, and each YES contract pays $1 if that outcome settles.