January 2026 FOMC Meeting — Decision & Market Recap
What prediction markets priced going into the Jan 27–28, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and what the Committee actually did.
Decision: the Fed left rates unchanged
This market has settled. See live odds for Oct 27–28, 2026.
Quick Answer
the Jan 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting has already happened — the Committee left rates unchanged. Its Kalshi KXFED contracts have settled, so the odds below are the final pre-decision snapshot, kept as a record of what the market expected. For live odds, see the Oct 27–28, 2026 meeting.
See the full KXFED ladder →Jan 27–28, 2026
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Who Was Right
Jan 27–28, 2026 · settledThe Fed’s decision: Hold. Each venue’s last close before the announcement, on that outcome:
| Venue | P(Hold) at the close | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 99.5% | closest |
| Kalshi | 98.5% | — |
Polymarket was closest, by 1.0pp over Kalshi. One meeting is one data point — the running record across every graded meeting is on the cross-market divergence page.
Scored on each venue’s daily close on its last pre-decision day, on the realized outcome only. Polymarket is the international book; the futures figure is a probability derived from the CME fed funds futures curve, not a contract price.
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<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=fed-receipt-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker/graphics/fed-january-2026-decision-receipt.png" alt="Receipt for the Jan. 28, 2026 Fed decision, a hold: Kalshi 98.5%, Polymarket 99.5% on the outcome; Polymarket was closest." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=fed-receipt-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>The case for each side
Jan 27–28, 2026- •Core CPI prints 0.3% MoM or hotter again — inflation not cooling
- •Energy prices keep feeding headline inflation
- •Payrolls solid (NFP 150K+) with unemployment flat
- •Chair and dots keep signalling more tightening is needed
- •Core CPI at or below 0.2% MoM — the last move is working
- •Payrolls weak or unemployment rising
- •Energy prices roll over and headline inflation cools
- •Chair signals patience at the press conference
The leading outcome is listed first. Odds update as economic data prints.
Key Dates
Trade the Oct 27–28, 2026 Fed decision
The contract for this meeting has settled. Kalshi’s KXFED ladder is live for the next one — take a position on cut, hold, or hike.
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What the Fed Did at the January 2026 FOMC Meeting
The Jan 27–28, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting is one of 8 scheduled FOMC meetings in 2026 where the Fed sets the federal funds rate target range. Prediction markets on Kalshi allow traders to take a position on the outcome — cut 50bp, cut 25bp, hold, hike 25bp, or hike 50bp — with each contract price reflecting the market-implied probability of that outcome.
Unlike opinion polls or analyst forecasts, prediction market prices are backed by real money. When a contract trades at 65¢, market participants are collectively saying there is a 65% probability of that rate decision. As new economic data arrives — CPI, NFP, PCE, GDP — the price moves, and every day's close is kept in the archive so you can see what each print did.
How to Trade the January 2026 FOMC Meeting
The best edge comes from correctly anticipating how upcoming indicator releases will shift the odds. Before a CPI print, ask: if inflation comes in hotter than consensus, how much should cut probability fall? Each indicator's sensitivity page gives the typical move per surprise. If Kalshi doesn't move as much as that history says it should — or Polymarket and futures disagree — that gap is the trade.
January 2026 FOMC meeting — frequently asked
What did the Fed decide at the January 2026 FOMC meeting?
At the Jan 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting the Committee left rates unchanged. This page keeps the final pre-decision Kalshi KXFED snapshot as a record of what prediction markets expected going in.
Did prediction markets get the January 2026 Fed decision right?
This page shows the last KXFED snapshot taken before the announcement, so you can compare what the market priced against what the Committee actually did. Our running tally across every meeting we hold pre-decision data for is on the Fed Rate Tracker hub — market data begins July 2026, so the sample is deliberately small rather than backfilled.
Where can I trade the next FOMC decision on Kalshi?
The Jan 27–28, 2026 contracts have settled. Kalshi's KXFED ladder for the Oct 27–28, 2026 meeting is live now — it lists a threshold contract per rate outcome, and each YES contract pays $1 if that outcome settles.