FOLLOW the MARKETS on the MICHIGAN MIDTERMS
October 13, 2026 · 2:36 · The 7 Oracles
What’s in this video
The host argues that prediction markets are reading the Michigan Senate race more clearly than forecasters or polls. While Cook Political Report calls the seat a toss-up and other forecasters lean slightly Democrat, El-Sayed is trading at 68%, up from 55% two months ago, against Republican Mike Rogers. The host points to national media attention, Obama's campaigning for El-Sayed, and negative ads as context for the shift, framing the market price as the clearer signal.
Key points
- Gary Peters' retirement opened the Michigan Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
- Forecasters like Cook Political Report call it a toss-up, while Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball lean slightly Democrat.
- El-Sayed is trading at 68%, up from 55% two months ago, showing rising momentum for the Democrat.
- The host cites heavy national media coverage, negative ads, and Obama campaigning for El-Sayed as factors behind the shift.
- The video frames this as another case of trusting the trading markets over polls and forecasters, similar to how swing states were priced in the last presidential election.
- The host promotes The 7 Oracles' free newsletter and Pro Tools, including a market-versus-pundits comparison tool, with a promo code mentioned for a discount.
Full transcript
What's going on? I'm over here telling you to continue to fade the polls and trust the traders. The prediction markets are really calling elections and tight races far better than the polls ever could. You go back to the national presidential election, all seven swing states, the prediction markets had going Trump's way. Most people thought the election was a tossup. Poly market and other trading platforms had it at about 64% going towards Trump. So with that thesis, you need to find places where the polls may be saying one thing, the forecasters may be saying one thing, but the trading markets can give you more confidence. And we have an example in the great state of Michigan. In Michigan, Gary Peters retired. And now this is a race that is big- time trending. It is big- time in the news between Republican candidate Mike Rogers and Abdul Elsed, the Democrat candidate. Okay. Forecasters, like some have it as a toss-up. The political report has it as a tossup. Inside elections, Sabatos, they have a just slightly lean Democrat. But if you go on over to the prediction markets, they have Elsed trading at 68%. That is a solid favorite. That is a favorite that you could have confidence in betting on. And that mark was at 55% two months ago. So it is going up. The momentum is on the Democrat's side. There is a lot of national media being done by El Salad to try to contradict some of the negative ads that are out there really along with the kind of culture wars that happen and play up in Michigan. Also, former President Barack Obama is hitting the campaign trail in support of Elsad. Okay, so there's a lot of momentum going on and the trading graph seems to say the same thing. What I'm saying is you may think it's a toss up if you're looking at the forecasters, but the prediction markets say that Elsied is a solid trade to make. That is the kind of tools you can also get over at the seven oracles. It can be entertainment, politics, sport. It could be Bitcoin, gold, silver, and the weather. We have everything to help you profit in prediction market platforms. great content from me and the other oracles, a free newsletter you can subscribe to, and like I said, tools that you can subscribe to. If you use the promo code NFL26 right now, you will get a 26% discount on a subscription over at the Seven Oracles. And with the midterm elections coming up, one of the best tools is where we have the markets versus the pundits. You can find the edge. You can find the places where you could fade the polls, trust the traders, and be profitable in the midterm elections.
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