Finding the Edge in the New Hampshire Senate Race | The 7 Oracles
October 29, 2026 · 1:55 · The 7 Oracles
What’s in this video
The Seven Oracles hosts compare pundit forecasts with prediction market pricing in the New Hampshire Senate race between Chris Pappas and John Sununu. While some polls and forecasters still call the race a toss-up, prediction markets are trading Pappas at 89-90%, a gap the hosts say is too wide to ignore. They argue the real opportunity may not be the outright winner but the margin of victory contracts.
Key points
- Chris Pappas is trading at 89-90% in prediction markets while some traditional forecasters still treat the race as a toss-up, a roughly 40-point gap.
- The hosts say that gap signals prediction markets view a Pappas win as essentially locked in.
- A 6-point margin of victory contract, consistent with some recent polling, is trading at 64%.
- An 8-plus point margin of victory contract is trading at 47%, which the hosts flag as a potential value spot.
- Instead of trading who wins the race outright, the hosts suggest looking at margin-of-victory markets for a bigger edge.
- They point viewers to their pundits-versus-markets board and tracker to compare forecasts and market prices ahead of Election Day.
Full transcript
Yo, you got to check out our pundits verse market boards over at the Seven Oracles as we head into the midterm elections, okay? The prediction markets have been better at calling races and we are showing you where you can have an edge. And the biggest one on our board right now is in the New Hampshire Senate race between Chris Papas, the Democrat, and John Cenounu, the Republican. Okay, first of all, some of the polls and forecasters still have this as a tossup race, whereas the prediction markets are heavily backing papas. Okay, the markets are trading for Chris Papus right now at 89 90%. That is a gap of 40 points. It is such a big gap that I think papas actually winning that election in New Hampshire is a lock. What you should do is go on over over to Kowi where you can get the margin of victory as something to trade. A six-point margin of victory, which has been the case in some of the recent polls, is trading at 64%. An 8 plus point margin of victory is trading at 47%. That may be where you get the value. Don't worry about who is going to get this seat in New Hampshire. It is going to be Papus. The prediction markets are not wrong when they are trading at 90%. So check out our hub, check out our tracker, see where the gap is and trade accordingly. And for this one in New Hampshire, it may not be just who's going to win the race, but literally you can go a little bit further and go for the margin of victory. And by the way, if you want to go on over and get all of the tools we have. It could be sports, entertainment, politics, Bitcoin, it doesn't matter. Go on over to the sevenoracles.com, sign up for our free newsletter, or if you want access to some of these tools, use the promo code NFL26. We're giving you a 26% discount on a monthly subscription over at the Seven Oracles, and it's perfect timing right ahead of election day, so you can get the edge and get profitable no matter who wins your race.
More from The 7 Oracles
48:56Midterm election odds, NFL and NBA predictions, and more!Oct 28, 2026
ShortNBA Injury Report Edge Tool: Find the Players Ready to Break Out! | The 7 OraclesOct 27, 2026
5:26Ohio Senate Showdown: Why Prediction Markets Are Backing Sherrod BrownOct 24, 2026
6:18NFL Props: Ashton Jeanty vs Mike Washington for Rushing Yards | 7 OracleOct 23, 2026
9:003 NBA Picks You Need to Watch Tonight | Hawks Magic Over 235.5, Haliburton & Luka Props | 7OraclesOct 21, 2026
41:46NFL Week 7 Predictions, Midterm Elections Update, and More LIVEOct 21, 2026More on Politics
5:05The Tool We Use to Find Midterm Trading Edges on Kalshi | The 7 Oracles Midterm HubOct 17, 2026
43:31NFL Week 6, Midterm Elections, and more Kalshi, Polymarket, and Novig predictionsOct 14, 2026
2:36Michigan Senate Odds: El-Sayed vs. Rogers — Follow the MarketsOct 13, 2026
3:18Texas Senate Odds: Talarico vs. Paxton — Fade the PollsOct 7, 2026
47:32NFL Week 5, Midterms, and DWTS | Kalshi , Novig, and Polymarket Prediction MarketsOct 7, 2026
2:39Alaska Senate Odds: Peltola vs. Sullivan — Fade the PollsOct 4, 2026Get The 7 Oracles daily predictions newsletter — free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.