The Election Night Trading Strategy: Why “TOO EARLY TO CALL” Could Mean BIG Opportunities | 7Oracles

Well, let me ask you guys like I like uh positions that we currently hold. Like I I have a bunch of positions for the 2028 election because I'm like I think Basher is the next Clinton. As far as these midterms though, you know, the polls that are close and we wrote about this in the in the newsletter, like the polls that are close, they're not translating into close markets. Like there's not a lot of underdogginess that you can go on. And like pair that with um hedging against happiness. And so like I know a lot of people want to see uh Vivvec lose for instance, but his odds are so good right now. This is the thing we keep going back to in markets. Like you put some money on Vivvec, you buy Vivvec. Um and I think he's at 16% right now on Poly Market, Poly Market US. Um that's going to go up. It's like as polls come in, I don't think he's going to get crushed early. I think it's going to look okay for him. Uh and so like that'll go up to 30 maybe and then you sell. I'm not saying he's going to win. I'm just saying like this is supposed to be closer than most people are saying. Are you guys approaching the midterms like this? Dane, are you doing this? Are you or are you just kind of like I'm staying out of this because you know even like Kathy Hutchel is 92% to win. It's not even fun, right? Yeah. So I guess the places where I'm looking at is the places where you know some of the forecasters, some of the polls still have it really close, still have it within the margin of error, but the markets have a candidate that is more of a solid favorite. Okay, we see this for example with Abdullah sayed. We see this for example with Tal Rico. We see this in in in Alaska. We see this in New Hampshire. We see this in South Carolina, right? And so whereas the markets are pricing it as almost a toss up or 50/50, excuse me, the forecasters are, but in the markets you have people in the 60s. And as we know, we talk about it all the time, right? Gan is the I'm a little bit more risk averse than Jean. So to me the idea of getting people in the 60s like 62% 63% if I feel like that am I'm confident of that those are the plays I am making instead of trying to get what you're talking about Nando a lower position that may move up right because one of the things I've seen is that these polls the data points are kind of spread out whereas the markets are 247 and you're able to see some of these trend lines zooming in the direction of one candidate or another and I am buying those kind of upticks in the line graph and believing that that represents kind of reality. And so I'm over here trying to find candidates that are in the 60s, candidates that are in the high 50s that I feel comfortable and confident about that are moving in the right direction. Jean, uh Dane and I have a Northeast bias. You're down south, man. Like what like what's your perspective on all this stuff? Like it's it's got to be different, right? I mean like we're not reading the same things. We're not seeing the same Twitter feeds. We don't have the same algorithms. What like how are you playing this? What do you see? Well, well, I think the thing down here is is always and I can tell you for me personally, I'm I'm a lot more entrenched in the local um politics than I am in the national. So, for me personally, I'm I'm like looking at who's the, you know, the the the the um the county commissioner and stuff like, right? Yeah. Who's your comproller, G? Yeah. something that's going to really affect me and the people that are in my life or the people that are around me. But I'll tell you this, like it's really interesting that um what used to be uh I'm just talking about Georgia, what used to be a really red Georgia has turned into a very blue Georgia and um at the national level, but at the local level still very still very red, right? Like so um the the Senate the Senate race and John Oaf and I think for me um he he has he has a couple of my coins because I think he could be a dark horse for um you know as a Democratic candidate for president. Yeah. But you know what I read if if Kesha Lance Bottoms doesn't win uh for governor the Republican can replace us off with another Republican I guess. So, like there's this weird complication like that whoever the governor is could, you know, tilt the balance. They can't they can't they can't get the US senator out of there. Like if he if he runs and if he wins. If he runs for if he runs for president. Oh, if he runs for president. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. If he runs for president, then there's a loophole that you could replace him. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But it's only at a certain point like it right. That was the thing with the Mitch McConnell. That was the thing with the Mitch McConnell thing too, right? That's why there was all that controversy because they would have been able to appoint uh the replacement. They didn't want that to happen. That's why we we did some content about Mitch McConnell never relinquishing the seat. Look at those odds, man. Look at look at those odds. Oh, there's Annie Andrews, dude. Annie Andrew South Carolina one. That's another one where I'm talking about look at the jump in it, right? Is it still probably gonna go red? This is Lindsey Graham's sister that was appointed now is running through a contested primary that happened, right? But what you see is a very big trend line jump for for the Democratic candidate which is Dr. Annie Andrews. Now I'm not saying this is going to go blue. But you can also trade on markets like what will the margin of victory be, right? And what I think this suggests is that the margin of victory may be a lot tighter than you would have originally anticipated. With a lot of these markets, you can get will uh Darlene Graham win by only, you know, zero to three points and things of that nature. And a lot of the polls and the trend line suggest that that race is tightening up as an example. Yeah. And and the thing is is that if you're looking for if you're if you're if you're very much in the the penny stock race, right? Like if you if you like a penny stock, if you like to put a little to get a lot, like then these are the types of races you're looking for, right? Can can can and can can Ann Andy Andrews make a fourth quarter run and surprise everybody by by taking We've seen these things happen before, right? This is where you want to get your money in at. But if you're somebody that believes, oh well, okay, the prediction markets have been lock on lock step on with the with these, then you go back to what Dane said. And why would I not put 20 why would I not put some money on getting a free 26% on my dollar, right? Like if it if that's the case, if it's a free 26% on my dollar, then that's what I'm talking about. Again, you can't go into this stuff with your heart. This is we're talking about investing. You can't invest with your heart. And if you invest with your heart, you need to invest with your heart on something that has has some type of statistically proven value to it or else you're going to lose your money. Well, this is going to business with their heart. They usually lose their business, right? So, it has to be backed up by something. N that's all. Well, I was going to say this this particular screen, Alex, before you switch off, Alex, shout out Alex Campbell, our director of production. Um, this this screen in particular, I look at it and I say, "Okay, we're at 27% right now for I think we just saw her go from 26 to 27 live, but just look where it was like say a week or two ago." It usually like 14. You know, I I I transposed this over like next Tuesday at 8:00, 9:00, 10:00 when the results start coming in. And I I can't put my finger on if the results are going to come in. Oh, it's it's close. It's so close. Like, you know, it's 49.6. six to 51. Yeah. And then everyone just goes nuts like Annie Andrews can win this thing. Boom. Boom. Boom. Boom. Because that happened with um in Wisconsin. Yeah. Yeah. And so I mean like she went from like 97% favorite just crashing live, you know, as the results were coming in. And I wonder if like you get in on the 27 now, it's a guarantee these are going to be close because the polls are close and people who are just learning about Poly Market, learn about Cal, learn about all these things are going to jump in. You know, like I think DraftKings is sponsoring the CBS local stuff. people are going to jump in, move the markets up to a point where my 27 is now like a 45 because it's 5050, you know, a half hour after the polls come out. No one's calling anything. It's too close and people are just going to put their money and then I'm like, "All right, I'm out. You could have my 45 cents, right?" You know, I' I've made my 18 cents. You know, that's a great way to look at it. You know, I've been because we have that great tool about the markets versus the pundits, right? So, I'm trying to find the gap and actually make plays, make trades that I intend to go the route. Yeah. Right. But how many times have we talked about this? Gene with Dancing with the Stars, me with Big Brother. Right. And as this, that's the beauty of these prediction markets. It's a flexible market. Right. So, to your point, if you are willing to monitor this live on election day and night, we will have some position. We're going to be here live. Right. There you go. And you have some here live Monday. I think Tuesday. Tuesday. Sorry. [laughter] Um, but this is a great example of that, Nand though. Annie Andrews still at only 27% because it was 17. That 27 will get into the 40s, right? And if you're okay with then hopping out, you know, or you could be like William Wallace at the Battle of York with, you know, and be like, hold, hold, hold, and figure out when the time is. There you go. With the horses coming, when they got the when they got the trees ready to find the spears, right? That's what I always say, you know, as that thing is going up. One of We should put a pin on this one. This exact one on this is the one South Carolina. Annie Andrews right now is at 27. A couple weeks ago was at 14. We should come back to this Nando and decide with me and Jean being like, hold or if it's time to actually hop out. Remember this one. Annie Andrews in South Carolina. We don't I go back I go back to the guy who stands next to Oh, go ahead, Gene. Go ahead. Get the Doctor Strange me. Get the Doctor Strange meme ready. Get the video ready to play. All right. [laughter] Because we're gonna be holding and then when we hear that finger when you see that finger go up sell sell. [laughter] I do want to I do Here's So here's the twist for me and I've you know I've watched a lot of I like I love watching the election night returns. For me that's kind of fun and it's weird but whatever. Um that like they caution so much they've gotten so smart in breaking down county by county. I wonder if it's not going to go like it would have done like four years ago, say, or six years ago, because they're like, well, listen, we have these, you know, we have these three red counties that haven't reported yet. Yeah. We're waiting for them. And so, we're not calling it, but like I would expect, you know, this one, this one, and this one to bring her totals up and be very red. You know what I part n though about this strategy that I think is beneficial for the trader out there is if you guys remember all the way back to what was it like 2002 the Al Gore one where because they got burned right and the big time networks now are conservative on actually making the call and a lot of times they will let it go longer before they make a call they'll have the too close to call too early to call right but the prediction markets are going to move so because the big networks are going to be even conservative before they make a call. That gives you a little bit of extra leeway here in the prediction markets to go ahead and do like Gene and I are saying whether it's hold or go ahead and actually, you know, make that cash out opportunity. Um, let's let's can we skip over to VC real quick? Uh, I just want to take a look at the Ohio governor race because this is an interesting one to me, especially in this election because it's not going to flip the power of the house. It's not going to flip the power of the senate. It's a governor race and I know that's very in a normal year where people you know aren't like so invested in like flipping uh flipping everything blue. Um this would be like a giant race and I do think and I just keep going back to the beta or example of like how he was just like very nationally well-known. Everybody loved him like he's an ex Obama and he just lost right like yeah he lost by more than people thought he would. I wonder if this is closer than 21%. Because this is like national and really international people driving this market who are all over Twitter, who are all over the news, who just have this hate for that ad that he put out. But when you get in that little box, man, I think people are going to I think more people than we think are going to go for him because of the fiscal in Ohio. Exactly. We are only talking about Ohio here. Like there's no in the Senate races. There's this responsibility that I'm seeing a lot of people talk about like we have to get, you know, we have to get checks and balances back. We need even if I don't explicitly agree with this Democratic candidate, I need to vote this Democrat in because they're going to stand up against Trump and blah blah blah. Ohio, it's just like here's our governor who's going to set fiscal policy blah blah blah and his fiscal policies might be better. You know what I So when you get in that little room, just you and yourself and that screen, I think I think the results are going to come up and push him up to like 50% at least by, you know, by 9:00. Take though, like let's let's fast forward to our coverage on on Tuesday, right? Yeah. And polls close in Ohio, whatever it is, 700 p.m., 8:00 p.m., whatever the case may be, right? What do you think it's going to take? Because now the national the kind of swell after that campaign ad, right, has has tanked him. Look at the look at the drop in that line, right? So, you're telling me we hit 8:15 p.m. that night, right? And they're saying it's too early. Yeah. Then all of a sudden, you think it'll go up, right? You have I think it's going to go right to where Alex was, right in the middle of that screen. I think it's going to go back to that. So, you So, but for for that to happen, my premise my my my thesis here is that you're going to need a good hour after the polls close before the networks are willing to make the call, right? Like if all of a sudden they're like the first returns come out and you know Amy Actton is, you know, 59 to the Vex 41, this line is not going to move much. But if they're like, whoa, it's too early to call. Whoa, it's too close to call. You need it too early to call. That's what I'm saying. You need a too early to call. So in essence, for everybody who is with us right now, but doesn't have the ability to join us on Tuesday for our live coverage, which is going to be amazing, and you can trade it on Poly Market with our code. You can use the promo code NFL26 for 26% off on a subscription. In essence, earmark some of these and then as soon as the networks hit you with that too early to call, that too close to call, run on over to Poly Market and see how these things have moved. That is the strategy, right, Gene? I always say, don't just give them a fish, teach you how to fish. Teach them how to fish, baby. Sounds like the way to fish on this is almost like remember guys uh PeeWee's Playhouse where there was a secret word and everybody bug out with a secret word. The secret word on Tuesday night is too early to call. Anytime the network say too early to call, we need to get a buzzer, get a Batman logo, get a signal, get an alarm and run to that market and see how the lines are shifting. your point though about the cash out opportunities that will exist. That's it. Ohio, it's this Ohio is where you can be selfish if you're a voter. What affects me. This is the governor's race. What affects me. The Senate races, you've got to be thinking about the country. You know what I mean? It's not this isn't just about Florida. This is about the country. This is about the constitution and all that stuff. Whether it's right or not, that's a train of thought. Ohio, when you get in there, you're like, "This is going to be good for me. This dude might be better for me." And so I just think like these numbers are going to get closer to where they are in the middle. Like this is a national this is national money is in here because he did such a vile and repugnant thing pushing him down. It's not Ohio voters. That's I think that's the best part you just said right there, Nando. This is national money. These are what people who are not in Ohio think. I would love to see how much money in this particular market is from Ohio. Yep. because I bet it's probably not a lot. Yeah. I think the last one to look at is the Kansas Senate race. Yes. Also, maybe an opportunity for our our our today's secret word, which is too early to call. Again, see another one. Look at this. Once again, guys, look at the line for the Democrat Adam Hamilton. He is now at only 40%. But if you go back, Alex, look, the man was at 19% two two months ago. A huge trend line going up. So, maybe we missed the boat. Whereas on Actton, it's still only at 27. Here it's up to 40. But again, this is another one, guys, where I'm thinking we're going to hear Gan those magic words of too early to call, which is going to give us a window to potentially get a cash out. If you want to establish that tent pole now at 40, it's going to go up. I think this I think I think you're right. I think you're right there. Like the four But is still great value though. Sure. Right. get it up to 53. Cool. Right. I'm just saying imagine if we were doing this when it was at 19 or or the idea we could do in South Carolina with Amy Actton, which is still in the 20s, right? So that's I like Colom I like Colom a lot in Mississippi, too. I know that's like the big story now. places where there's energy, the trend line moving up because the trend line moving up may not be enough for the Democrat in most cases to win the race or the election, but provides opportunities where on Tuesday night we're going to hear the magic words of too early to call, too close to call. And that will force on the prediction markets that will force things that were in the 20s or in the 30s to go up into the mid to low 40s presenting cash out opportunities for you on election night. And Hamilton's interesting here the same way Telerico is. They're I mean they they speak to the right a little more than your normal candidate. You know, they're they're Christian pastors, ministers. they have, you know, the I think a lot of right people can relate more to these two candidates in particular, Hamilton and Taler Rico, they could, you know, your normal typical Democrat who, you know, who was not an ordained minister, you know what I mean? Like there's some there's some check boxes in there that go on the other side. And I think that's that's why like you could see this I mean like this could just be that really Hamilton is one of those guys I wouldn't take like oh he'll be up to 53%. He's one of those guys I would take to win. Like he'd be he's one of those holds that goes all the way up to 100 for me. I think he's especially after Kobe Hall wrote that newsletter for us a couple newsletters ago about he's a canon. Like we're like that's what I thought was so great. He's from Kansas. He's a canon. He understands canons. He's like the polls are the the markets are wrong. The polls are right in this scenario.