What triggers a blue arrow?
Kalshi lists three causes, all of them partial resolutions under the leg's own market rules:
- A DNP. If a player in your combo never enters the game, that leg generally settles at its last fair price as determined by the Exchange, not at $0 or $1.
- A protected pick settling at its fair price. A protected NFL player market settles at its fair price if the player plays the first half but not the second half or overtime and hasn't reached the target.
- Another partial resolution that a market's own rules allow.
One line decides most of these. Once a player has entered the game (in NFL markets, a single snap), the leg settles on the stats actually recorded, even after an injury or ejection, and it resolves yes or no like any other leg, with no arrow. Only a protected market changes that.
Does the blue arrow void my combo?
No. A widely shared answer says the arrowed leg voids. Kalshi's rule is that it settles at its value, the combo is not cancelled or refunded, and the payout is recalculated with that value inside the product.
How much does a combo pay after a blue arrow?
Multiply every leg's final value. Kalshi's own example, scaled to a ten-contract position:
| Leg | Settled at | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Leg A | $1.00 | Resolved yes |
| Leg B | $1.00 | Resolved yes |
| Leg C | $0.70 | Blue arrow: settled scalar (DNP) |
| Combo, per contract | $0.70 | $1.00 Γ $1.00 Γ $0.70 |
| Combo, 10 contracts | $7.00 | instead of $10.00, and instead of $0 |
Two more rules from the same page: if any leg settles at $0 the whole combo pays $0 (and can settle right away), and a combo otherwise settles after every leg is determined, typically 1 to 12 hours after the last one resolves.
What should you do when you see one?
Open the arrowed leg's market and read its settlement rules: the contract terms on each market page are the governing reference, and they state the exact value it settled at. Then check the math: your payout per contract should equal the product of the final values.
The bigger lesson sits upstream of settlement. A combo's price is quoted to you rather than calculated from your legs, so it can sit above what the legs are worth before a single game starts. Grade the quote against fair value first with the free Combo Edge Builder, and read how Kalshi combos work for the full rule set. If a combo won't build or shows "payout unavailable", that's a different problem: see Kalshi combo not working? every fix.
Primary source: Kalshi's own combo rules, Kalshi Help Center: Combos (read 2026-10-12).