Heisman Trophy Odds 2026: Kalshi vs. Polymarket Prices, Updated Through the Season

Tim Brown won Notre Dame's last Heisman Trophy in 1987. Thirty-nine years later, the market has made a Notre Dame quarterback the favorite to end the drought. Coach Gene Clemons of The 7 Oracles does not think it happens — and the history of preseason favorites is on his side.

This page does two jobs. The top half is a live board: every 2026 Heisman contender priced on Kalshi and Polymarket, side by side, with the cheaper venue named for each player. It refreshes on its own through the season, so bookmark it. The bottom half is Gene's read — why the favorite is the wrong price, and the four longshots he is building positions in.

The live board: Kalshi vs. Polymarket

A note on what you are looking at. "Kalshi" is the live YES ask on the KXHEISMAN-27 event. "Polymarket US" is the CFTC-regulated U.S. venue, which carries a genuine Heisman book with 1-cent spreads on most names. Polymarket's international book is a different exchange with different liquidity, and on this particular award it is thin — most contenders show a penny bid against a 40- to 80-cent ask. We show it only where a real two-sided market exists, and we never call a price "cheaper" off a quote nobody can actually trade.

Where the market stood on Sept. 3, 2026

The Kalshi Heisman event had traded more than $11.6 million by kickoff week, and the top of the board was crowded: five quarterbacks within four cents of each other.

Bold rows are Coach Gene's four longshot positions. Prices are the live quotes at 2:45 p.m. ET on Sept. 3, 2026; the board above is current.

Two things jump out of that table. First, the two regulated venues disagree by a cent on most of the top ten, and the direction flips player by player — Polymarket US is cheaper on Carr, Manning and Moore, Kalshi is cheaper on Mensah and Smith. A cent is not nothing on a 10-cent contract; it is 10% of your entry. Second, below about 5 cents the venues collapse to the same price, which tells you the longshot tier is being priced by formula, not by opinion. That is where an opinion is worth the most.

Why the favorite is the wrong price

Here is Gene's case against CJ Carr, and it has nothing to do with whether Carr is good.

Can Carr put up Fernando Mendoza numbers? Sure. Will he put them up against Big Ten or SEC competition? No. Notre Dame's independent schedule mixes a partial ACC slate with lower-tier Big Ten opponents and a couple of Group of Five games. Voters discount that. Dante Moore has to go through the Big Ten. Arch Manning has to survive the SEC. When the numbers are close, the harder road gets the love.

The second problem is the favorite tag itself. Over the past 20 seasons Gene counts exactly one preseason favorite who went on to win the award: Marcus Mariota in 2014. The list of favorites who did not is a who's who. Tim Tebow won as a sophomore in 2007, was the favorite in both 2008 and 2009, put up all-time numbers, and lost to Sam Bradford and then Mark Ingram. Terrelle Pryor was the 2010 favorite; Cam Newton won. Johnny Manziel was set up to repeat in 2013; Jameis Winston exploded instead. Bryce Young was the favorite to repeat in 2022 and Caleb Williams won it; Williams was the favorite in 2023 and Jayden Daniels took it home. Last year the Arch Manning train left the station in August and was derailed by mid-September, while Mendoza — nowhere in the preseason conversation — won going away.

None of that is a knock on Carr. It is a statement about what 12 cents buys you: a quarterback with the softest schedule of the top five, carrying the one label that has beaten almost everyone who wore it. Gene's line is simpler than mine: don't test drive Carr, there's no lemon law in college football.

The four longshots Gene is building positions in

The logic of a longshot Heisman position is not "this player wins in December." It is "this player's price moves in October." A 3-cent contract on a quarterback who throws for 400 yards in a September SEC game can be a 15- or 30-cent contract a month later, and a prediction market lets you sell it that day. A fixed-payout futures ticket does not. That is the whole structural edge, and it is why every one of these is framed as a momentum trade with a target, not a hold to the ceremony.

Each of these is running as a Play of the Day this week, one per day, graded in public like everything else on the board.

Sam Leavitt, QB, LSU — 4¢ on Kalshi, 4¢ on Polymarket US

The Arizona State-to-LSU pipeline already produced one Heisman: Jayden Daniels. Leavitt makes the same move into a better offense than the one Daniels inherited, with elite targets at receiver, tight end, running back and on the perimeter. With that many mouths to feed, LSU will keep pressing even when games are decided, and pressing means volume. Volume is what voters count.

LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina — 3¢ on Kalshi, 4¢ on Polymarket US

Sellers is a bully at the position. He is physically dominant as a runner and still emerging as a passer, and the market has priced him as the former. If the off-season arm work shows up, this is a video-game stat line waiting to happen. Kalshi is the cheaper venue by a cent, and Gene's own scenario is a 3-cent Sellers turning into a 65-cent asset by Halloween — the kind of run you sell into.

Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan — 2¢ on both

Things at Michigan were never as bad as the campaign to run the old coach out made them look, and the program got better with Kyle Whittingham on the sideline. Underwood is big, fast and athletic, with weapons to throw to in an offense that should be much improved. Two cents is the market pricing the headlines, not the quarterback.

Malachi Toney, WR, Miami — 2¢ on both

The one non-quarterback on the list, because he might be the most electric player in the sport. Toney has a high-profile program to carry the campaign and a quarterback in Darian Mensah to get him the ball. Note the pairing: the market has Mensah at 9 cents, so it already believes in the Miami offense — it just has not decided who gets the credit. A receiver at 2 cents inside a 9-cent offense is the cheapest way to be long the Hurricanes' season. A Percy Harvin-level impact on winning is the upside case.

How to size a 2-cent contract

Every one of these is speculative, and most 2-cent contracts expire worthless. PredictionMarketsPicks does not talk in units; position size is a share of bankroll, and for speculative positions we use a quarter-Kelly share. Put your own probability estimate into the Kelly calculator, check the break-even with the EV calculator, and set the exit price before you enter. The probability converter turns any American-odds Heisman line into cents so you can compare it to the board above.

More college football on the markets

Coach Gene's weekly show, Invest in the FCS, prices FCS games straight off Kalshi — the FCS hub has the week's numbers and the graded results. For the NFL side of the season, the Kalshi vs. Polymarket season-leader board does for passing-yards and MVP contracts exactly what this page does for the Heisman, and the Kalshi vs. Polymarket comparison covers fees, states and markets across the two exchanges.

Trade responsibly. Prediction markets are not sportsbooks; this is a market read, not financial advice. Prices quoted are exchange quotes at the time noted and move continuously.