NFL WEEK 1

Model vs. Kalshi on all 16 openers

Week 1 markets live now

FANTASY DRAFT

Free draft desk inside Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor

8 tools · no account

NFL EDGES

Live game edges — model vs. Kalshi, ranked

Gridiron Edge · 5-min refresh

COMBO EDGE

Correlation-aware Kalshi combos — free

SILVER EDGE

Options vs. Kalshi on weekly silver brackets

Public ledger · 2026

Invest in the FCS — graded results

Every play, every week, with the implied probability it was called at and the final score it was graded against. Wins and losses are published the same way.

Quick Answer

Invest in the FCS is 0-0 on the 2026 season across 0 graded tickets, with 6 still live. Every verdict on this page is derived from the ESPN box score when the page loads — no result is stored anywhere, so the ledger cannot drift from what actually happened.

Record

0-0

Graded

0

Pending

6

Net result

Every result is graded from the ESPN final score at page load — no outcome is stored, so the ledger cannot drift from what happened. Net result is a SUM across graded tickets at one contract each, where a winner returns the 100¢ settlement minus the price paid. Prices are the implied probabilities quoted on air at the moment of the call, not closing prices, and a play called without a number counts in the record but never in the net figure.

How this ledger is built

Week 0

6 tickets · Invest in the FCS: Week 0, streamed 2026-08-28

Episode write-up →
PENDINGWeek 0

William & Mary Tribe @ Villanova Wildcats

  • Under 49.555% implied at the call

Scheduled

The full write-up →
PENDINGWeek 0

Rhode Island Rams @ Merrimack Warriors

  • Rhode Island -16.559% implied at the call

Scheduled

The full write-up →
PENDINGWeek 0

New Hampshire Wildcats @ UAlbany Great Danes

  • New Hampshire -9.555% implied at the call

Scheduled

The full write-up →
PENDING2-leg ticketWeek 0

Lehigh Mountain Hawks @ Holy Cross Crusaders

  • Lehigh -13.551% implied at the call
  • Under 47.559% implied at the call

Combined 30.1% implied — every leg has to land for the ticket to pay.

Scheduled

The full write-up →
PENDINGWeek 0

Stetson Hatters @ South Dakota State Jackrabbits

  • South Dakota State MLno quoted price

Scheduled

Blowout call, no quoted price — moneyline only, never recorded as a spread.

The full write-up →
PENDINGWeek 0

Montana State Bobcats @ Utah Tech Trailblazers

  • Montana State -31.549% implied at the call

Scheduled

The full write-up →

More from the FCS desk

FCS results — frequently asked

How is this record graded?

From ESPN’s final box score, computed on every page load. A spread play is graded on the final margin against the number that was called; a total on the combined score; an outright on the winner. A result landing exactly on a whole number is a push, never a win. A parlay counts as one ticket — every leg must land or the whole ticket loses, so the legs are never counted separately in either direction. Only games ESPN marks final are graded; a game in progress reads pending.

Are these the closing prices?

No. Every price here is the implied probability the market was showing at the moment the play was called on air, not the closing price. That is deliberate and it is the harder standard: a good call moves the market, so grading against a close would systematically flatter an early caller relative to the position anyone could actually have taken.

What does the net result figure mean?

It is a SUM across graded tickets at one contract per ticket, not an average and not a per-contract figure. A prediction-market contract settles at $1, so a winner returns one dollar minus the price paid and a loser costs the price paid. A ticket called without a quoted number counts in the win-loss record but is excluded from the net figure rather than being assigned an invented price.

A prediction market is not a house line — you buy a contract that settles at $1 or $0, and the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.