Wednesday, May 13, 2026
Play of the Day
The 7 Oracles’ prediction market play for Wednesday, May 13, 2026 — permanent record.
LA High Temperature > 69°F on 5/13/26
POSITION
YES
ENTRY PRICE
24¢
CLOSES
Today, May 13 2026 (settles on LAX daily high)
Weather Edge flagged LAX over 69°F at 24¢ last night. NWS forecast 70°F, backtest band ±1.5°F (68.5–71.5). Model fair value ~70%. We called it on X — see thread.
Pure Weather Edge play, called from the tool last night and tweeted at 24¢. NWS forecast for Los Angeles tomorrow (5/13) is a high of 70°F. Our backtests on this LAX market put high-certainty NWS forecasts inside a ±1.5°F band — so the realistic outcome range is 68.5°F to 71.5°F. Every degree in that band is a YES on the > 69°F contract. Model-implied fair value is roughly 65–75¢; the market priced it at 24¢. That is a 40+ point gap. The Weather Edge tool exists for exactly this: it doesn't predict weather, it compares NWS to Kalshi strikes and surfaces the most under/overpriced contracts. This is the trade we want users to see — sharp, mechanical, and the kind of asymmetric setup the platform was built for. Originating tweet (called at 24¢): https://x.com/Predmrktpicks/status/2054347055435251770
Graded May 14, 2026 · P/L math per our published track-record method.