TX Gov
Texas Governor winner? (2026)
2310k contracts traded · 1471k open
TX GOVERNOR 2026Live · updated hourlyIncumbent
Texas Governor Race 2026: Gina Hinojosa vs Greg Abbott Odds
Texas has Greg Abbott seeking a fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who won her primary outright. Texas has not elected a Democratic governor since 1990, and the contract prices a Republican hold. The race shares the ballot with the Paxton–Talarico Senate contest, so reading the two Texas prices side by side separates what is about the state from what is about the candidates.
Seat held by Greg Abbott (R)running for re-election
Quick Answer
As of October 15, 2026, Greg Abbott leads the Texas governor market at 78¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 78%. Greg Abbott is on the ballot defending the seat, so that price weighs the governor’s own record as much as the national environment.
Seat held by Greg Abbott (R) — incumbent; running for re-election.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 15, 6:37 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Texas governor
Gina Hinojosa
Democrat24¢
Greg Abbott
Republican78¢
Who holds the Texas governor’s office
Greg Abbott R
Incumbent · running for re-election · on the November 3 ballot
Seat facts checked 2026-09-17.
Live Texas Governor Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip. A leg with no price shows a dash; we never fill one in.
Texas on the same ballot
Texas also elects a U.S. senator on November 3, 2026, and Kalshi prices that race separately.
Texas Governor 2026 — frequently asked
Who is running for governor of Texas in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Texas governor race are Gina Hinojosa (Democrat) and Greg Abbott (Republican), per published primary results as of 2026-09-28. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Is the Texas governor’s seat open in 2026?
No. Greg Abbott (Republican) is running for re-election on the November 3, 2026 ballot, so the contract prices an incumbent defense — the governor's own record and approval as much as the national environment.
What does the market say about the Texas governor race?
The Quick Answer at the top of this page states the leading contract and its price as of the last refresh. A leg priced in the 80s or 90s is the market calling the race; a leading price near 50¢ is the market saying it does not know. We carry no forecaster rating for governor races, so the price stands on its own here rather than against a published band.
Where is the Texas governor market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists it under the event ticker GOVPARTYTX-26 — one YES/NO contract per leg, each settling at $1 if that side wins the November 3, 2026 election and $0 otherwise. Every price on this page links straight to the live market. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states. Texas also has a 2026 Senate race on the board, linked below.
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