Texas Governor Results 2026: Hinojosa Beats Abbott
Quick Answer
Gina Hinojosa (D) won the 2026 Texas Governor race, beating Greg Abbott (R).
The seat changed party.
How the market priced it
Kalshi’s last price at 11 PM ET on Nov. 2, the night before the vote.
- Greg Abbott60¢
- Gina Hinojosa40¢
The market missed: Greg Abbott was the favorite at 60¢ and lost.
How the markets did across every pre-registered race: the 2026 prediction market scorecard.
Texas Governor 2026 — frequently asked
Who won the 2026 Texas governor race?
Gina Hinojosa (D) won the 2026 Texas Governor race, beating Greg Abbott (R). The Associated Press called the race.
What did prediction markets price before the vote?
At 11 PM ET on Nov. 2, Kalshi's last price before polls opened: Greg Abbott 60¢, Gina Hinojosa 40¢. Each contract pays $1 if that side wins, so the price reads as an implied probability.
Was it a flip?
Yes. Democrats took a seat held by Republicans.
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Race call as credited above. Prices from Kalshi. This page reports results and prices and takes no side.