AZ Gov
Arizona Governor winner? (2026)
620k contracts traded · 363k open
AZ GOVERNOR 2026Live · refreshed every 15 minutesIncumbent
Arizona Governor 2026 — Live Kalshi Odds
Arizona has Democrat Katie Hobbs defending the seat she won by under a point in 2022, against U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, who took the Republican primary with Donald Trump’s endorsement. Arizona is a swing state where recent statewide races have turned on narrow margins. Read the live legs as the market’s view of an incumbent in a midterm against a nominee from the party’s right flank.
Seat held by Katie Hobbs (D)running for re-election
Quick Answer
As of September 29, 2026, Katie Hobbs leads the Arizona governor market at 88¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 88%. The seat is open, so that price is the market’s read on the field and the environment, with no incumbent anchoring it.
Seat held by Katie Hobbs (D) — incumbent; running for re-election.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Sep 29, 7:00 PM UTC · refreshed every 15 minutes through Election Day.
Who holds the Arizona governor’s office
Katie Hobbs D
Incumbent · running for re-election · not on the 2026 ballot
Seat facts checked 2026-09-17.
Live Arizona Governor Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip. A leg with no price shows a dash; we never fill one in.
Arizona Governor 2026 — frequently asked
Who is running for governor of Arizona in 2026?
The live board above lists every contract Kalshi quotes on the Arizona governor race — one leg per candidate or party — with its current price. We publish the names the market prices rather than a hand-maintained field, so the board is the answer and it updates every 15 minutes. Read each price as the market’s implied probability that leg wins.
Is the Arizona governor’s seat open in 2026?
No. Katie Hobbs (Democrat) is running for re-election on the November 3, 2026 ballot, so the contract prices an incumbent defense — the governor's own record and approval as much as the national environment.
What does the market say about the Arizona governor race?
The Quick Answer at the top of this page states the leading contract and its price as of the last refresh. A leg priced in the 80s or 90s is the market calling the race; a leading price near 50¢ is the market saying it does not know. We carry no forecaster rating for governor races, so the price stands on its own here rather than against a published band.
Where is the Arizona governor market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists it under the event ticker GOVPARTYAZ-26 — one YES/NO contract per leg, each settling at $1 if that side wins the November 3, 2026 election and $0 otherwise. Every price on this page links straight to the live market. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states.
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