FL Gov
Florida Governor winner? (2026)
3064k contracts traded · 2088k open
FL GOVERNOR 2026Live · updated hourlyOpen seat
Florida Governor Race 2026: David Jolly vs Byron Donalds Odds
Florida is open with Ron DeSantis term-limited. Byron Donalds, the Republican nominee, carries Donald Trump’s endorsement; the Democrat is David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who switched parties. A state that has moved decisively right since 2018 anchors the price — read the Democratic leg as the market’s view of how far a party-switcher and a national environment can pull against that lean.
Seat held by Ron DeSantis (R)term-limited — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of October 15, 2026, Byron Donalds leads the Florida governor market at 80¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 80%. The seat is open, so that price is the market’s read on the field and the environment, with no incumbent anchoring it.
Seat held by Ron DeSantis (R) — open seat; term-limited.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 15, 6:37 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Florida governor
David Jolly
Democrat22¢
Byron Donalds
Republican80¢
Who holds the Florida governor’s office
Ron DeSantis R
Open seat · term-limited — OPEN SEAT · not on the 2026 ballot
Seat facts checked 2026-09-17.
Live Florida Governor Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip. A leg with no price shows a dash; we never fill one in.
Florida on the same ballot
Florida also elects a U.S. senator on November 3, 2026, and Kalshi prices that race separately.
Florida Governor 2026 — frequently asked
Who is running for governor of Florida in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Florida governor race are David Jolly (Democrat) and Byron Donalds (Republican), per published primary results as of 2026-09-28. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Is the Florida governor’s seat open in 2026?
Yes. Ron DeSantis (Republican) is term-limited, so no incumbent is on the November 3, 2026 ballot. With no incumbency anchor, the contract moves on the field and the national environment.
What does the market say about the Florida governor race?
The Quick Answer at the top of this page states the leading contract and its price as of the last refresh. A leg priced in the 80s or 90s is the market calling the race; a leading price near 50¢ is the market saying it does not know. We carry no forecaster rating for governor races, so the price stands on its own here rather than against a published band.
Where is the Florida governor market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists it under the event ticker GOVPARTYFL-26 — one YES/NO contract per leg, each settling at $1 if that side wins the November 3, 2026 election and $0 otherwise. Every price on this page links straight to the live market. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states. Florida also has a 2026 Senate race on the board, linked below.
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