NV Gov
Nevada Governor winner? (2026)
1450k contracts traded · 692k open
NV GOVERNOR 2026Live · updated hourlyIncumbent
Nevada Governor Race 2026: Aaron Ford vs Joe Lombardo Odds
Nevada has Republican Joe Lombardo defending the seat against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. Lombardo won in 2022 by less than two points, and the state’s statewide races have been decided by similar margins in both directions. Read the live legs as a referendum on a first-term Republican in a swing state during a midterm.
Seat held by Joe Lombardo (R)running for re-election
Quick Answer
As of October 15, 2026, Aaron Ford leads the Nevada governor market at 52¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 52%. Joe Lombardo is on the ballot defending the seat, so that price weighs the governor’s own record as much as the national environment.
Seat held by Joe Lombardo (R) — incumbent; running for re-election.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 15, 5:07 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Nevada governor
Aaron Ford
Democrat52¢
Joe Lombardo
Republican49¢
Who holds the Nevada governor’s office
Joe Lombardo R
Incumbent · running for re-election · on the November 3 ballot
Seat facts checked 2026-09-17.
Live Nevada Governor Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip. A leg with no price shows a dash; we never fill one in.
Nevada Governor 2026 — frequently asked
Who is running for governor of Nevada in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Nevada governor race are Aaron Ford (Democrat) and Joe Lombardo (Republican), per published primary results as of 2026-09-28. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Is the Nevada governor’s seat open in 2026?
No. Joe Lombardo (Republican) is running for re-election on the November 3, 2026 ballot, so the contract prices an incumbent defense — the governor's own record and approval as much as the national environment.
What does the market say about the Nevada governor race?
The Quick Answer at the top of this page states the leading contract and its price as of the last refresh. A leg priced in the 80s or 90s is the market calling the race; a leading price near 50¢ is the market saying it does not know. We carry no forecaster rating for governor races, so the price stands on its own here rather than against a published band.
Where is the Nevada governor market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists it under the event ticker GOVPARTYNV-26 — one YES/NO contract per leg, each settling at $1 if that side wins the November 3, 2026 election and $0 otherwise. Every price on this page links straight to the live market. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states.
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