The POLLS are WRONG about the TEXAS MIDTERM. The MARKETS know all...
October 7, 2026 Β· 3:18 Β· The 7 Oracles
Whatβs in this video
The host compares polling forecasts to prediction market pricing in the Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico. While forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball still rate the race a toss-up, prediction markets show Talarico's position rising to 65%, up from 50/50 in early September. The host argues this divergence represents an opportunity, citing Republican spending and campaign activity as context, and urges viewers to act before forecasters catch up to the market move.
Key points
- Forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball still rate the Paxton-Talarico race a toss-up, while Inside Elections leans Republican.
- Prediction markets have Talarico's position at 65%, up from 50/50 in early September, showing clear momentum.
- A super PAC tied to Senate Majority Leader John Thune has put $131 million into ads in the race, mostly negative against Talarico.
- Trump rallied for Paxton in Denton on October 1st, while Paxton has not agreed to debates that Talarico has accepted.
- The host notes that in the last presidential election, prediction markets had all seven toss-up states going for Trump, with Polymarket showing Trump at 61% the night before the election.
- The host frames the gap between forecaster ratings and market pricing as the key signal to watch in this race.
Full transcript
Yo, let me tell you something. You got to fade the polls and ride with the prediction markets. And there is an opportunity to profit in these prediction markets by doing just that. Look at the Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talerico. Listen, the forecasters, the polls, most of them still have it 50/50. I mean, the Cook Political Report has it as a tossup. Sabatos's Crystal Ball has it as a tossup. Inside election still actually leans Republican on this race, but James Terico is streaking and moving up in the prediction markets. The markets have Talico at 65% and that's up from 50/50 in early September. The momentum is clearly on Terico's side. And you know how else we can tell? Republicans are pouring money into this race. a super PAC tied to Senate Majority Leader uh John Thun has put $131 million of ads into this race, mostly negative ads against Taller Rico. Trump is going to campaign for Ken Paxton as well. He rallied over there on October 1st and Paxton still hasn't agreed to any of the debates where Talerico has said, "I'll debate him anywhere, anytime on any network, even in Fox News." Okay, do not be slow on this because the numbers the market is continuing to increase for Torico. You can get them right now at 65%. Meaning if you trade $100 on it, you can probably get about $160, $170 back. Do it now before the pollsters, the forecasters catch up and you lose your value. This is why you need to go on over to the sevenoracles.com. We have a great midterm elections hub where you can see everywhere that the forecasters and the polls diverge from the markets. The markets are better predictors of these elections. Think about it. All the way back in the last presidential election, there were seven tossup states. The prediction markets had all seven going for Trump. Poly market had Trump at 61% to win the election the night before the election when most people thought all these swing states was still a tossup. go with the prediction markets. And the prediction markets are clear. Talico is gaining momentum and likely to actually overtake Paxton and win in Texas, a state that has not had a Democrat win a statewide election in something like 30 years. Okay, that could be why some of the forecasters and the polls are a little bit slow on this, but we know that is where the movement is going. Check the prediction markets. Get Taler Rico now in the Texas Senate race before you lose value. And if you want to get value, you got to go on over to the seven oracles. It could be the elections hub. It could be sports. It could be entertainment. It could be Bitcoin. It doesn't matter. We have you on lock to profit in these prediction markets. And if you use the promo code NFL26 right now, you will get a 26% discount when you sign up over at the Seven Oracles and get some of those tools. you don't want to pay, you can still sign up for our free newsletter which will still give you insights in these prediction markets and you get great content for me and all of the oracles. You got to get down with us at the prediction Illuminati. But before you do that, put on a trade for Terico now before you lose some
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