Arvell Reese Is the Favorite, But David Bailey Might Be the Smarter Bet | NFL DROTY Race

There is a um award that I think comes down to two players in the New York area, Gene, and I'd love your thoughts on this one. The NFL defensive rookie of the year. Okay. Right now, Arll Ree is the favorite for this award and it's at 50%. But the second choice is the Jets number two overall draft pick, David Bailey. And let me tell you something about David Bailey. David Bailey has seven and a half sacks already in eight games played. He is tied for third in the NFL in sacks. He has five force fumbles which is tied for the league lead in in that category. Right. Game wrecking plays left and right. And when I see Bailey at the second choice at only 26% I think the value is on Bailey with with him having seven and a half sacks already. He is actually on a pace to set the rookie sack record which right now is Javon Kur in 1999 at 14 and a half. And Arll Reese is more of a maybe a complete player. But if you look at the history of this award, sacks rings bells. If David Bailey sets the rookie sack record, he is going to, in my opinion, win this award. And as the second choice right now at 27%, I think there is value there. Even if you're into like PFF numbers, for goodness sakes, David Bailey's PFF number right now for the season is 88.3. Arll Reese's is slightly below that at 87.4. Yes, Reese has more tackles, but Bailey has more sacks, more TFLs, more first fumbles, a higher pressure rate. And I think, you know, when it looks at this award, it's about getting to the quarterback. And especially if Bailey winds up with 14, 15 sacks, something like that, I think he's going to win. And regardless, as the second choice at 27%, I think he's a value in this market. The value is definitely on David Bailey, right? Like the value is David Bailey, you should sprinkle some um, you know, of your investment in there because the value is there for sure, right? Like Arll Reese is doing it loud. Yeah. He's extremely loud with his with with with with his work, right? like the David the D the David Bailey right now and this could change because we're still so like we still got so much football to play, right? But the David Bailey has been splashes like boom three sacks here, boom, two sacks there, right? Like so like that from that standpoint it's going to be like okay the splashes will they will they outrun the the consistency that we've seen out of Reese while also making splashes right we've seen the consistency level and I just think that there's there's a level of darling about Reese that that is it's is with him that you're not going to see with David Bailey because Bailey uh he's a defensive lineman, right? Like they call him what they want to call him nowadays, but he's a defensive lineman. And so I think that's going to that's going to play a big role into it. Um you're talking about a guy who, you know, from the linebacker position has an interception, has sacks, h is on pace for 130, 140 tackles, right? like that. I I think that that the the only way for David Bailey to win it. Well, the only two ways Arville Ree has to get hurt. He has to stay healthy. That's the one we don't want. The other one is he breaks the rookie record. That's what I'm saying. He breaks the rookie record. He breaks the rookie sack record. They're going to give it to him. It doesn't matter what Arville Reese does now. So, right now, Jean Bailey has seven and a half sacks and he's played in eight games. He's missed a game. Okay. Um, the rookie sack record is 14 and a half by Javon Kur in 1999. Okay. So, he's played eight games. He's at seven and a half. He's got eight more to play. So, he's on pace for 15. That would in fact break the rookie sack record. And the other thing I'll say is he leads not rookies, he leads the NFL with five forced fumbles so far this season, right? And that's another kind of what you talk about those splash plays that he makes. And I said it before, Gene, I agree with you. Arvel Reese is a more complete player, but I do think you talked about that breaking the sack record in in in this category. If you go back something like over 50% of the time, the rookie sack leader is the person who comes home with the award. That that stat rings bells there. And if he actually sets a record, uh, which he is on pace to do, I think it's possible. And check this out, Jean. When I was talking to you about it two minutes ago, David Bailey was at 25 26%. Look at the screen right now. He's at 30%. It's gone up 5% since we Hey, they're they're listening to us. Ali Market is listening to us because they know we're also a partner. The people are going to get a free $25 and trade it and they're going to get a ton of value. Literally, it was 5525. Gan, when I started talking about it, now it's 5030. Poly Market, you're listening and we know because you're a great partner for us. Yeah. No, and the people are listening because they're the ones that are investing and they say, "Oh, that he's got a point. They got, you know, they might be on to something. I think that it's I think this is going to be a great race. Um, if you want David Bailey, get him now. Like, now is the time. Like, the line is literally as if you wait another week, you're not going to get the same value. Especially if he has another half. Yeah. Another good season. I mean, another good game. I don't even think it takes a second and a half. If he just gets a sack. Yeah. Right. Like, if he just gets a sack, he's he's going to be fine. Um, but it's gonna be hard because Arll Reese is giving you that that Carson Swissinger. Ah, like production at linebacker. Yeah. And he also has four and a half sacks. Like, so he's on pace for double digit sacks. And he's not even a pass rusher. He's not even a pass rusher. I believe he can break the sack the rookie sack record. Yeah. Right. I think there is a better than 25% chance because he is on pace and he had a three sack game, a two sack game and I think he's going to get better as the season goes along if you want to know the truth, right? You know, this is also a play like I think he can in fact break that record.